TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

tampastorm · #21 Postby **tampastorm** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:57 pm

Do the models that are showing up the West coast Florida have any credibility? Just seeing how prepared I should be. Thanks

cinlfla · #22 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:57 pm

Wheres the flippin center I have lost track.

gtsmith · #23 Postby **gtsmith** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:58 pm

The NASA GHCC site is terribly slow to dead...I cant get a loop to run at all. Anyone else try it lately?

#24 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:59 pm

Ernesto will be going into a fairly warm area of SST'S at a good depth. I would imagine a TS scenario is likely with possible Cat 1 bearing down on S. Fla tomorrow night. I am preparing for a 1 as I have seen what those winds can do here. 3 times with Cat 1 winds and I was out of power for 2 weeks.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6239at.jpg

tallywx · #25 Postby **tallywx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:00 pm

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Cuban radar site pretty close to current center shows definite increase in banding and convection near center. Center is still by no means offshore. Looks like it could ride along that island-ridden coast for quite some time before being "free and clear" to rapidly intensify, unless we get a diurnal convection blowup so significant that it "pulls" the center offshore. I've seen it happen before. Depends on how strong the high north of the system is.

Damar91 · #26 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:01 pm

Outflow starting to look a little better as well. Good Luck tonight everyone! Don't take any chances, be prepared for the worst.

Thunder44 · #27 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:02 pm

gtsmith wrote:The NASA GHCC site is terribly slow to dead...I cant get a loop to run at all. Anyone else try it lately?

That's probably because so many people are trying to access it.

gtsmith · #28 Postby **gtsmith** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:02 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I am preparing for a 1 as I have seen what those winds can do here. 3 times with Cat 1 winds and I was out of power for 2 weeks.

thats exactly my concern as well, loss of power. not overly concerned about winds and rain with this one...but the loss of power, loss of food in the fridge, etc. It's not fun sleeping in this state at the end of August with no AC then gettign up to take a cold shower...ugh

chadtm80 · #29 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:02 pm

Myersgirl wrote:Is the NHC track the eastern outlier?

It looks that way to me. They are on the GFDL all the others are west

#30 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:03 pm

If there's anything Katrina v1 and Wilma taught us in Dade, it doesn't take super wind to knock out power/traffic lights...

cinlfla · #31 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:03 pm

Thanks for the radar link. How come there is hardley any convection on the west side of the storm?

#32 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:03 pm

tallywx wrote:http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Cuban radar site pretty close to current center shows definite increase in banding and convection near center. Center is still by no means offshore. Looks like it could ride along that island-ridden coast for quite some time before being "free and clear" to rapidly intensify, unless we get a diurnal convection blowup so significant that it "pulls" the center offshore. I've seen it happen before. Depends on how strong the high north of the system is.

It appears as though you see this thing correctly looking at that radar. It does look to becoming better organized somehow.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #33 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:03 pm

The bear is trying to get out of its land cage. In when it doe's so this thing will likely go. So I would take this seriously. I agree with SouthFloridawx. Keep a eye on that ridge.

Stormavoider · #34 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:04 pm

I am curios about the persistent convection south of Cuba's eastern tip. Could a second LLC have formed under it? If so, how would it figure into things?

Myersgirl · #35 Postby **Myersgirl** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:05 pm

NHC

GFDL, must be a reason

#36 Postby **sweetpea** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:06 pm

Matt do you have a link to look at with the ridge?
Debbie

Sanibel · #37 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:07 pm

Plenty of muscle in that convection just waiting for a catalyst...

BOPPA · #38 Postby **BOPPA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:07 pm

"tampastorm" Do the models that are showing up the West coast Florida have any credibility? Just seeing how prepared I should be. Thanks

I have the same question as Tampa Storm ? Please

tallywx · #39 Postby **tallywx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:07 pm

Stormavoider wrote:I am curios about the persistent convection south of Cuba's eastern tip. Could a second LLC have formed under it? If so, how would it figure into things?

Definitely no second LLC under that convection. Radar shows that the convection is in the form of south-north oriented bands feeding into the real LLC just inland off the N coast of Cuba. No chance that a second LLC forms with that flow.

#40 Postby **HollynLA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:07 pm

Yep, loss of power is horrible in August..... actually downright BRUTAL. I remember after Katrina and even Rita last year, there's just no relief. We were all sleeping in the living room but had a fan hooked to the generator. It was just blowing the hot air on us faster. We would have to flip over every 15 minutes to dry the opposite off of sweat. It was truly awful. And we had well water, so no showers either.

I hope no one is taking Ernesto too casually in Florida and not preparing. I'm sure all our Floridian S2K members have already completed their preparations by now.

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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