TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[tampastorm]

The BAM which was the latest updated has pushed somewhat west, the question being will the other models follow when updated?

[tgenius]

BAM has been an outlier this entire forecast tampastorm.. wait to see if the globals push west as well...

[tampastorm]

BAM has been an outlier this entire forecast tampastorm.. wait to see if the globals push west as well...

That is one of the "million dollar" questions. We shall see soon enough

[caneman]

Spaghetti models

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[jenmrk]

Could any of this put the panhandle of Florida back to a possible area of concern?

[cpdaman]

looks like going south of the middle keys will buy this 12-18 hours additional over water plenty o time to get a cat 1 or cat 2. (remember intensity forecast are of very low confidence in situations like this would be if it got into the extreme E GOM

[tampastorm]

Could any of this put the panhandle of Florida back to a possible area of concern?

Anything possible, but I would say odds are VERY slim. Most likely I still will say a southwest hit. Though it does have pretty good forward speed. Is E forecast to slow down?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

when do the rest of teh models update?

[linkerweather]

BAM has been an outlier this entire forecast tampastorm.. wait to see if the globals push west as well...

That is one of the "million dollar" questions. We shall see soon enough

The 06z GFS is a bit farther west, the panhandle will not be put back into play, the west move is for the short term as a north and then NNEward shift would take place. I believe we will see a track toward the middle keys and then a north turn somewhere thereafter. Keep in mind if that seems far west to some of you, those areas are in a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning right now. I think that the trop storm watch should be exteneded northward a bit along the west coast of Florida just to play it safe. The people here in the Tampa Bay area unfortunately are going to be surprised even though they shouldn't be.

[jenmrk]

can't view the model, it says access denied?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Good Morning Josh!

I am heading into work right now and will be catching the online presentations throughout the day. Of course I will be frequently checking in to Storm2K too!

Now its really getting interesting!

[krisj]

Our local mets said this morning that they had their Vipir track going to the western part of the cone all the way up to the west of Charleston, SC.

[caneman]

BAM has been an outlier this entire forecast tampastorm.. wait to see if the globals push west as well...

That is one of the "million dollar" questions. We shall see soon enough

The 06z GFS is a bit farther west, the panhandle will not be put back into play, the west move is for the short term as a north and then NNEward shift would take place. I believe we will see a track toward the middle keys and then a north turn somewhere thereafter. Keep in mind if that seems far west to some of you, those areas are in a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning right now. I think that the trop storm watch should be exteneded northward a bit along the west coast of Florida just to play it safe. The people here in the Tampa Bay area unfortunately are going to be surprised even though they shouldn't be.

I agree Josj. I think maybe Ft. Meyers

[jenmrk]

Thanks for the info, I feel relieved and hope to keep it that way, boy this one is a learning expierance for those of us that are trying to catch on as to how this all comes together.

[caneman]

Anyone have the 06 UKMET. It's updated just can't access.

[cpdaman]

check Ernesto out on the long range key west radar

he appears back to his wnw ways ala 290 degrees or so , look out gulf coast (assumng he turns right)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Nimbus]

The models are in good agreement and appear to be verifying. From water vapor imagery the trough has almost reached LA and the ridge Axis is starting to slide southeast good job NHC!

Metro Dade and and the other east coast counties will be on the strong side of the storm. Lets hope Ernesto makes a quick hop across the Florida straits and does not explode. 40 mb pressure drops over 24 hours are not unheard of given the current conditions.

[wxman57]

The BAM which was the latest updated has pushed somewhat west, the question being will the other models follow when updated?

You can't use the BAM models for a recurving storm. Use the dynamic models. The CONU and CGUN consensus models, which the NHC has been following closely, have shifted slightly eastward overnight. The better dynamic models are very tightly clustered on a landfall in the upper keys , northward track across the central peninsula, emerging near Daytona Beach, then into SC.

Ernesto looks like a very disorganized TS this morning. It won't have much time to gain any organization by the time it reaches Florida. Maybe some pockets of 50-60 mph wind over water is about it. Rainfall is the main threat from this storm.

[Solaris]

Erni will now get some energy: Tropical cyclone heat potential

[HollynLA]

When is the turn to the N, then NE expected to begin. It seems like I've been hearing that it was about to happen for about 12+ hours now but it hasn't yet.
For Ernie to stay on the NHC track, wouldn't he have to go much more northward now?