TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Josephine96]

Stay safe Carolina people.. Gonna get a good storm there..

[storms in NC]

I knew they would update it to a Hurricane watch. By 2 PM update will be warnings

[fci]

From 11 AM Advisory:
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from
South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...in this case within the next 12 hours.

OK, this mystifies me.

A Hurricane Watch that states hurricane conditions are possile in the next 12 hours.
How is that a "watch"????!!!!

[fci]

I knew they would update it to a Hurricane watch. By 2 PM update will be warnings

What good is an update to a "warning" 9 hours out???

Time for preparations??

[Noles2006]

fci - Because the conditions are not expected.

[Mac]

From 11 AM Advisory:
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from
South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...in this case within the next 12 hours.

OK, this mystifies me.

A Hurricane Watch that states hurricane conditions are possile in the next 12 hours.
How is that a "watch"????!!!!

"Possible" = watch

"Present" = warning

[SouthFloridawx]

I knew they would update it to a Hurricane watch. By 2 PM update will be warnings

What good is an update to a "warning" 9 hours out???

Time for preparations??

I am actually suprised they did not issue the watching early this morning. They issued the watches for Florida and E. was only at 45mph in the Gulf Stream. Maybe they were not expected rapid development. E. is looking very good on satelite today.

[gatorcane]

looks like some rapid intensification is going on to me.

[HURAKAN]

Since neither I nor the models are good
enough to precisely know if Ernesto will have an intensity of 64
knots at landfall.

Now, that's honesty!!!

[fci]

I understand the distinction between a watch and a warning.

However, what is the "purpose" of them.

IMO, a "watch" is to advise you to get ready just in case, start preparations in case you get hurricane conditions within 36 hours. It is followed by a "warning" which says to get ready it is happening. Presumably you have prepared for action with the "watch" and execute them with the "warning"

What good is a watch 12 hours out.
Exactly what purpose does it serve?

You ave now prepared to execute in case of a warning.
But with 12 hours notice..... OOPS.... no time to execute.

My point is that a "watch" 12 hours out is completely pointless.
Either make it a warning 12 hours out or nothing at all.

[storms in NC]

looks like some rapid intensification is going on to me.

There is but how much is the million dollar question

[carve]

I will go out on a limb and say hurricane by the 2pm update...by no means is this an official forecast....just because of the rapid developement of the storm is why i think it may be a hurricane by 2pm....any thoughts??

[Hyperstorm]

Remember that this is the same forecaster that dropped those hurricane watches yesterday. He is not going to reverse his thinking from yesterday all of a sudden. I, however, think that not issuing warnings for a 60 mph tropical storm that is strengthening and within 12 hours of landfall is irresponsible. It is ALWAYS better to take the path of least regret.

This is not the first time this has happened, however. Just recently in 2005, similar situations occured with Cindy and Emily.

[gatorcane]

Remember that this is the same forecaster that dropped those hurricane watches yesterday. He is not going to reverse his thinking from yesterday all of a sudden. I, however, think that not issuing warnings for a 60 mph tropical storm that is strengthening and within 12 hours of landfall is irresponsible.

This is not the first time this has happened, however. Just recently in 2005, similar situations occured with Cindy and Emily.

Agreed this storm is strengthening big-time and I think a hurricane is quite possible before landfall. It still has 10 hours over the warm Atlantic waters...

[carve]

I just looked at a local national radar here in ohio....and i swear it looks to have an eye.....any comments?

[stormtruth]

Even if it doesn't reach cane strength this storm is going to cause a lot of problems with decent winds plus tons of rain for SC/NC.

[fci]

Remember that this is the same forecaster that dropped those hurricane watches yesterday. He is not going to reverse his thinking from yesterday all of a sudden. I, however, think that not issuing warnings for a 60 mph tropical storm that is strengthening and within 12 hours of landfall is irresponsible. It is ALWAYS better to take the path of least regret.

This is not the first time this has happened, however. Just recently in 2005, similar situations occured with Cindy and Emily.

Absolutely irresponsible.

it just continues the trend for botching up Ernesto.
One good thing is that it will add many more pages to the internal post-mortem that they will perform after the season to determine how they could have done a better job.

A "watch" 12 hours out is simply absurd.

To me it is "Well, we have done a horrible job this far on Ernesto, why change now??"

[storms in NC]

FCI don't feel bad There is alot that did a horrible job. We have to go hour by hour now. Not a good way to go. There is a lot of peole on the beachs here not good. I hope that they will come inland to be safe

[theworld]

I have not looked are the waters in Ernie's path warmer than normal this year ?

Slight above...

[MyrtleBeachGal]

There's going to be some upset tourists sitting in the dark in their hotel rooms tonight with a hurricane pounding on their doors and no flashlights or bottled water. Red Cross hasn't opened any centers here and I'm not sure if the governor has to to that, or if hurricane warnings is their guideline for opening.,,,

I'm getting so frustrated!!