TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Eyewall]

are there any models that don't turn it?

if there was a chance for it to come towards land, i would think that there would be some models showing it.

[Sanibel]

The ULL is being steered at a different level. Florence has just enough "sail" up into the steering currents from that robust convection to drag it WNW and into recurve.

[Windtalker1]

The ULL is being steered at a different level. Florence has just enough "sail" up into the steering currents from that robust convection to drag it WNW and into recurve.

Not at the strength shes at now she don't...and I think the models expected her to be stronger, the ULL out of the way, and Flo moving more NW.....it ain't Happening....at least not yet!

[Bailey1777]

I could be wrong here but that trough looks strong enough that even if Florence moved due West from this point on it would still get picked up down the road and bowled out to sea well East of the U.S.

[craptacular]

According to the coordinates, it actually went .1 degree south since the 5am advisory. Would someone please explain how this is wnw?

The 5AM discussion mentioned that the center had been jumping around a lot, so they were using a longer-term average. If you go from 11PM last night to 11AM this morning, it comes out to about 295 degrees ... WNW.

[cpdaman]

exactly windtalker

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The ULL is moving to the SW as per water vapor and the NHC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

I meant that the ULL was positioned northwest of Florence and was moving in tandem west-southwest to southwest. Just wanted to clarify.

How are they moving in tamdem when the ULL is moving SW and the storm is moving WNW?

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38#1457638



I recomend the members who are not convinced about Florence being a fish to read what donsutherland has to say in a complete analysis about the future track is concerned.By the way,if Florence affects Bermuda the term "Fish" does not applie.

[Sanibel]

Not at the strength shes at now she don't

Word to the wise: You don't shoot black-topped IR without having significant "strength".


Keep watching.

[Eyewall]

this thing has stalled!
look at the vis loops and it hasn't move much at all..

[storms in NC]

Well I see it moving more to the west before the turn if it does make the pick up on the troff then you will see the NW turn. IMO it will miss the troff and stay weak and stay on a WNW track. It seem that the modles are missing alot here this year. But as far as land fall I can't tell you if it will or not. Really need a few days to see where it does track. As far as am concern it is a wait a see. A long wait. And I have to work today from 1 to 11

[MiamiensisWx]

How are they moving in tamdem when the ULL is moving SW and the storm is moving WNW?

By "in tandem", I meant that they are moving at similar relative speeds. Sorry for bad explanation.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1457638#1457638



I recomend the members who are not convinced about Florence being a fish to read what donsutherland has to say in a complete analysis about the future track is concerned.By the way,if Florence affects Bermuda the term "Fish" does not applie.

That is very true, and often forgotten on the map.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the forecast on Florence is close to a slam dunk as models and climatology combine to suggest that Florence will almost certainly stay way off the east coast of the US. This certainly is a good thing as this will likely become a very large system both in strength and in size with only Bermuda a concern.

[cpdaman]

thunderstorms over cuba and central american pop that convection every day that does not mean strength it signals there is energy there (that's all) the LLC is away from that energy right now and this storm is poorly organized

and donald sutherland (from my interpretation) is not convinced this is a fish either. he says that it is more likely based on climo and CURRENT model ensambles but this could still move further west and still effect carolina's, it's just not favored at this time. although he does say that florida and georgia appear out of the woods based on current model ensambles

[flhurricaneguy]

imo don sutherland over hipes a lot of things.

[Derek Ortt]

very unlikely Florence will be a fish

There is a little country called Canada that seems to be in its path that happens to sit right in a recurvature lane

[skysummit]

Ok, so what if this happened.....how would that affect Florence? From the TWO:

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD GET A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS A
TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN SOME NON-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR.

[Stratosphere747]

imo don sutherland over hipes a lot of things.

I'll play nice...

But you have no idea what you are talking about!

[flhurricaneguy]

thanks.