TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 072006
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST BY COMMITTEE TODAY. WELL...AS WE ALL CAN SEE FROM THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...FLORENCE IS NOT YET INTENSIFYING.
IN FACT THE WIND ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATING W TO E WHILE
THE LLVL CLOUD SWIRL REMAINS EXPOSED WITHIN THIS WEAKER CENTRAL
CIRCULATION OF THIS HUGE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
WAS APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WSW RECENTLY. SUBSIDING AIR AND
LIKELY SOME SAL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE ENTIRE SRN
SEMICIRCLE AND I CANNOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING IN THE
SHORT TERM. GFS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST MOISTURE
REACHING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION BY 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. FLORENCE IS NOW WITHIN 450 NM OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST AND 600 NM OF THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
IS NOT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EITHER.

Above is a portion of the AFD of San Juan NWS that talk about what is going on with Florence.

[wxman57]

This blob is lacking any banding features.

I am not sure that it is intensifying at the present time, though this burst may prevent it from weakening, as it appeared to be doing earlier.

I am also getting a center a little SW of your fix

http://www.nwhhc.com/florence.gif

well... I see the cursor did not stay up, my fix is near 20.3 and 55.4

No banding yet. As long as that convection persists, it should gradually increase the inflow into the center. I think we'll see good banding by 12-18 hours.

[gatorcane]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 072006
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST BY COMMITTEE TODAY. WELL...AS WE ALL CAN SEE FROM THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...FLORENCE IS NOT YET INTENSIFYING.
IN FACT THE WIND ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATING W TO E WHILE
THE LLVL CLOUD SWIRL REMAINS EXPOSED WITHIN THIS WEAKER CENTRAL
CIRCULATION OF THIS HUGE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
WAS APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WSW RECENTLY. SUBSIDING AIR AND
LIKELY SOME SAL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE ENTIRE SRN
SEMICIRCLE AND I CANNOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING IN THE
SHORT TERM. GFS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST MOISTURE
REACHING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION BY 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. FLORENCE IS NOW WITHIN 450 NM OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST AND 600 NM OF THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
IS NOT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EITHER.

Above is a portion of the AFD of San Juan NWS that talk about what is going on with Florence.

I agree, similar thoughts to what I had about the dry air

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

...CONUS AND VICINITY...

PREDITABILITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL FLOW/EMBEDDED
SYSTEMS DECREASES RAPIDLY OVER TIME SO IT IS NOT A GOOD DAY BE BE
TOO SPECIFIC. OF NOTE...THE 00 AND 12 UTC GFS RUNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC GFS ENSMEAN TAKE ENERGY OVER THE PAC NW
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND DIVE IT THRU THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS FOUR
CORNERS. THIS SETS UP A FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE E-CENTRAL US THRU SE CAN THAN MOST OTHER
MODELS THAT DO NOT SEND THIS ENERGY AND PCPN POTENTIAL THAT FAR S.
THE 06 UTC GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE DIGGING OF
WRN ENERGY EARLY PERIOD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF PAC NW ONCE IT REACHES THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
IN THEIR PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE SOLUTION. CMC IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH ECMWF OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES BUT THE 00 UKMET REMAINS
SLOWER TO SPIN DOWN THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE NW. WE DO NOT
SEE A CLEAR MECHANISM TO SEND THE PAC NW SYSTEM AS RADICALLY FAR S
AS THE 00 UTC GFS AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE
PACKAGE BUT AT LEAST 06 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
OVERALL TRENDED STRONGLY AWAY FROM THAT SOLUTION.
ACCORDINGLY...PREFER A WHOLE CONUS/VICINITY SOLUTION MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN AN EFFORT TO REDUCE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES...BUT ADJUSTED THE FORECAST POSITION OF
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO FIT
LATEST TPC OFFICIAL GUIDANCE THAT DEEPENS THE SYSTEM TO POTENT
HURRICANE STATUS.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[wxman57]

I disagree with parts of the San Juan discussion. The elongation is not a bad thing - it's separating from the end of that cold front. Now it'll be more free to develop, particularly with the LLC under bursting convection. I'm not sure what "short term" means, either. Next 2-3 hours? Next 2-3 days? I'd wager it'll be quite a bit better organized in 12 hours, unless those squalls over the center die out overnight.

[gatorcane]

I disagree with parts of the San Juan discussion. The elongation is not a bad thing - it's separating from the end of that cold front. Now it'll be more free to develop, particularly with the LLC under bursting convection. I'm not sure what "short term" means, either. Next 2-3 hours? Next 2-3 days? I'd wager it'll be quite a bit better organized in 12 hours, unless those squalls over the center die out overnight.

Good points. I do think the dry air is a "short-term" statement but before all is done, probably over the next 1-2 days we will see some good strengthening. My short-term statement is just for the next 24 hours at most.

[Trugunzn]

it willl be Interesting when the Recon flies tonight into Flo'. we will have a better handle of where its going, and where the center is. Right now looks like center is just south of NHC.

[Windtalker1]

it willl be Interesting when the Recon flies tonight into Flo'. we will have a better handle of where its going, and where the center is.

That's when the models will change.....Trust me.

[Derek Ortt]

No recon for 36 more hours

Flies in at 6Z on the 9th

[Trugunzn]

No recon for 36 more hours

Flies in at 6Z on the 9th

They Pushed it back?

[Trugunzn]

WRF:

[Brent]

WOW.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

[Thunder44]

WOW.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

Not suprised. Told you guys it was getting bigger.

[cycloneye]

[craptacular]

They Pushed it back?

It was not pushed back. A few people simply missed the date of the 9th, not the 8th.

[gatorcane]

why is this part in the public advisory - seems redundant. It makes sense if this was being broadcasted over a radio or something. I say remove it.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

[Bailey1777]

Curtadams don't know where you are coming up with this wrapping up into a relatively small system?

[Sanibel]

Convection is moving towards the center and banding is better. Should see strengthening soon. Especially when it heads north like Ernesto when he finally got it going.

[Stormavoider]

why is this part in the public advisory - seems redundant. It makes sense if this was being broadcasted over a radio or something. I say remove it.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

Because it is transmitted as voice as a radio broadcast.

[jusforsean]

WOW.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

Not suprised. Told you guys it was getting bigger.

so here goes a supid question pending it does the turn thing then at what point west would it have to get for fla to feel some part of her if shes already soooooooooooo big?