El NINO on the way in

[StormWarning1]

The El Nino of 2004 did not really affect the Atlantic until mid setember. East Pacific temp anamolies starting turning above normal then, and the 2004 hurricane season shut down, like this years should.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes, I definitely think El Nino is starting to impact global climate now
and will do so especially through this fall and winter IMHO.

El Nino is good for us because it makes fewer big storms and hurricanes.

These storms are terrible in the damage they wreak.

We need time to recover from last years and previous years storms.
It's good to have a quieter season than in 04 or 05.

However, TS Alberto did some damage to my property. I
will be quite angry with nature if another storm does any more
damage to anything or anyone.

TS Alberto's rainbands blasted the screen doors out of my patio
balcony, flipped over large rocking sofas, and threw a large rocking chair into a hammock, all in my balcony.
I was near my balcony before the worst winds and was somewhat
frightened by the shaking of my pool cage. There were
sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph,
so conditions near tropical storm conditions. I estimate
the gusts I saw to around 40-50 mph, perhaps 55 mph.

Anyway, it is nice that I have no storms to worry about
right now.

By the way, in my sky-watching, I did see a few funnel clouds
over north Tampa a couple days ago, I think Wednesday
evening around 7 PM.

[Jim Hughes]

If you can't forecast El Nino... you might as well give up the seasonal forecast business. It is a shame but few experts were expecting this... and no one exactly got it right. In addition no one knew whether it was going to be an El Nino like 2004.. which had ZERO impact on the hurricane season. We have a long ways to go to understand the ocean/atmosphere coupling that happens to start an El Nino. In fact this time the MJO was very weak, as opposed to the 02 event beforehand it was very strong. There are a lot of ways to start an El Nino..

It is space weather forced Benny . Plain and simple. NOAA and CPC will be clueless until they consider this. I can not understand why the people within the meteorological-climatological community let this type of consistent innaccuracy go unchallenged.

[cinlfla]

I remember when we had an El nino year in 97 we had a horrible tornado outbreak here in central florida

[Portastorm]

If you can't forecast El Nino... you might as well give up the seasonal forecast business. It is a shame but few experts were expecting this... and no one exactly got it right. In addition no one knew whether it was going to be an El Nino like 2004.. which had ZERO impact on the hurricane season. We have a long ways to go to understand the ocean/atmosphere coupling that happens to start an El Nino. In fact this time the MJO was very weak, as opposed to the 02 event beforehand it was very strong. There are a lot of ways to start an El Nino..

It is space weather forced Benny . Plain and simple. NOAA and CPC will be clueless until they consider this. I can not understand why the people within the meteorological-climatological community let this type of consistent innaccuracy go unchallenged.

Speaking of space weather Mr. Hughes, I'm curious how your hurricane season forecast for 2006 has come out thus far?

[wxmann_91]

Well, it was pretty obvious a month ago. -60 SOI's don't pop out of nowhere. The results took a few weeks to set in but it has been apparent; the EPAC has been very active and the Atlantic very quiet with strong shear (40 kt westerlies in the Caribbean in late August!). WPAC formation areas, as expected, have shifted east (see Ioke and latest 92W Invest), and CPAC has gotten active with at one time a bonafide hurricane and two invests.

[Bella]

Yes, I definitely think El Nino is starting to impact global climate now
and will do so especially through this fall and winter IMHO.

El Nino is good for us because it makes fewer big storms and hurricanes.

These storms are terrible in the damage they wreak.

We need time to recover from last years and previous years storms.
It's good to have a quieter season than in 04 or 05.

However, TS Alberto did some damage to my property. I
will be quite angry with nature if another storm does any more
damage to anything or anyone.

TS Alberto's rainbands blasted the screen doors out of my patio
balcony, flipped over large rocking sofas, and threw a large rocking chair into a hammock, all in my balcony.
I was near my balcony before the worst winds and was somewhat
frightened by the shaking of my pool cage. There were
sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph,
so conditions near tropical storm conditions. I estimate
the gusts I saw to around 40-50 mph, perhaps 55 mph.

Anyway, it is nice that I have no storms to worry about
right now.

By the way, in my sky-watching, I did see a few funnel clouds
over north Tampa a couple days ago, I think Wednesday
evening around 7 PM.

Just read this....I live in Carrollwood. That storm was incredible. Whereabouts did you see the funnels???

[txwatcher91]

If you can't forecast El Nino... you might as well give up the seasonal forecast business. It is a shame but few experts were expecting this... and no one exactly got it right. In addition no one knew whether it was going to be an El Nino like 2004.. which had ZERO impact on the hurricane season. We have a long ways to go to understand the ocean/atmosphere coupling that happens to start an El Nino. In fact this time the MJO was very weak, as opposed to the 02 event beforehand it was very strong. There are a lot of ways to start an El Nino..

It is space weather forced Benny . Plain and simple. NOAA and CPC will be clueless until they consider this. I can not understand why the people within the meteorological-climatological community let this type of consistent innaccuracy go unchallenged.

Speaking of space weather Mr. Hughes, I'm curious how your hurricane season forecast for 2006 has come out thus far?

He said early on in the season (January) that he highly doubted that we would see a CAT 5 and that this year would have alot less tropical storms and hurricanes than last year.

[AussieMark]

This El Nino could also have a very big affect on the 2007 season as well.........could be very quiet in the tropics for a while.........I also know that 2004 with El Nino present (I think) Ivan got us big time......what was the El Nino status then?

The El Nino never really got going in 2004 till late fall /early winter
not like 2002 and 1997 where El Nino was set in by this point
the Present is like this

2006
2004
2002
1997

the ENSO index at this point in 2004 was

2004
August: +0.7C
September: +0.8C

2002
August: +0.9C
September: +0.9C

1997
August: +1.7C
September: +2.0C

[johngaltfla]

Speaking as someone living in a drought-stricken area of Texas, I welcome an El Nino. The sooner it can start influencing our weather with more rain, the better.

I would have said that a few months back but not now. Here in western florida we are above normal and El Nino will bring us more rain.

I have to concur. And if the situation which appears to be developing early in September continues, these cold fronts dropping down into the Gulf would spell trouble for us in Western Florida for any storms which form south of and/or make it to the Yucatan Channel.

[AussieMark]

Yes, I definitely think El Nino is starting to impact global climate now
and will do so especially through this fall and winter IMHO.

Bingo

rainfall over winter here was well down, especially over the south and west of the country

Perth had its driest winter in its history

[Jim Cantore]

The other big sign on El Nino possibly forming was Ioke, you don't usually see something like that in the CPAC, unless........

[wxmann_91]

Unfortunately, many people early in the season were bashed for saying this would be a quiet season. LarryWx being one of them.

[Jim Cantore]

This hasn't been "Quiet"

Active seasons are measured by named storms not landfalls, we're on pace with 1999.

[wxmann_91]

This hasn't been "Quiet"

Active seasons are measured by named storms not landfalls, we're on pace with 1999.

Quiet in comparison to this active cycle.

[AussieMark]

1999 had far more hurricanes tho

of the 12 storms in 1999 8 were hurricanes and of those 5 were majors

not exactly a even comparison

[Jim Cantore]

1999 had far more hurricanes tho

of the 12 storms in 1999 8 were hurricanes and of those 5 were majors

not exactly a even comparison

IN the named storm department, we're right on pace, but 2006 has been MUCH nicer.... so far.

[HurricaneBill]

The other big sign on El Nino possibly forming was Ioke, you don't usually see something like that in the CPAC, unless........

Aren't twin cyclones another sign of El Nino? One in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere?

[benny]

If you can't forecast El Nino... you might as well give up the seasonal forecast business. It is a shame but few experts were expecting this... and no one exactly got it right. In addition no one knew whether it was going to be an El Nino like 2004.. which had ZERO impact on the hurricane season. We have a long ways to go to understand the ocean/atmosphere coupling that happens to start an El Nino. In fact this time the MJO was very weak, as opposed to the 02 event beforehand it was very strong. There are a lot of ways to start an El Nino..

It is space weather forced Benny . Plain and simple. NOAA and CPC will be clueless until they consider this. I can not understand why the people within the meteorological-climatological community let this type of consistent innaccuracy go unchallenged.

Really if it is that simple... then it should be easy to prove. But it isn't. It is one of those things that is even below seasonal forecasting on the list of acceptable scientific topics. Where is the science? Why doesn't the NOAA Space Environment Center talk about this? Getting one forecast right does not make the method work all of the time. When does it fail? Why does it fail? Hell why does it work? How does the QBO fit into all of this? These are all open questions. Why do most scientists stay away from it? Why does it fall on the fringe? Is your forecast for more positive AO-type winters for the next 11 years because of solar activity?

Jim if it is meaningful.. then publish it. Scientists only ignore evidence for so long. After a while there are only a few doubters.. then they die. I'm just trying to be helpfully critical here. I enjoy reading it but it hard for a meteorologist to understand why a certain type of solar energy from the sun would have anything to do with El Nino. What is the connection? I do value the input.

[fci]

This hasn't been "Quiet"

Active seasons are measured by named storms not landfalls, we're on pace with 1999.

Quiet in comparison to this active cycle.

I know that statistically this year has been "normal" and not "quiet".
However after a season with 27 storms it's all relative.

After last season's record number of storms; only 8 days in September/October with no storm to track and 15 storms in 2004....
2006 seems to be a very quiet season to most of us!!

And with a pending El Nino; we may be in for more than one of these "Quiet" seasons.

After the pounding and multiple poundings many of us have taken over the past 2 years, this is a WELCOME RELIEF!!!!