CrazyC83's Gordon Forecast #18 - Gordon's European Adventure

[CrazyC83]

^agreed. you choose to ignore 2 of the 3 estimates and go with the highest in your forecast, which seems to be normal. if gordon continues his rate of intensification, then he could reach a cat 4 storm, but he isn't there yet.

Pressure is currently estimated at 955 MB, not 948.

With no recon confirmation, I had to go with what I had available. It is a guess after all...

[Bane]

why did you discount the other two dvorak estimates? i'm not belittling your forecast. i just want to try and understand your line of reasoning. you can use recon as an excuse, though.

guessing is one thing. estimating with scientific evidence is another.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #11

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Gordon appears to have peaked as the water temperatures can only support such a powerful hurricane for so long. Nonetheless, the satellite views of Gordon remain quite impressive but little different than previously. While one Dvorak estimate suggests a 125 kt storm, the others have brought it down to 100 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt.

Fluctuations in strength is expected for the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening. It is not out of the realm of possibility, however, that Gordon could go back to Category 4 intensity for a little while. After about 24 hours, cooler waters will gradually weaken Gordon, ultimately to an extratropical system at the end of the forecast.



Current - 29.5/55.9 - 948mb - 125mph
12 hrs - 30.6/55.0 - 945mb - 135mph
24 hrs - 31.9/54.0 - 947mb - 125mph
36 hrs - 33.0/52.8 - 950mb - 120mph
48 hrs - 34.2/51.9 - 958mb - 110mph
60 hrs - 35.4/50.6 - 966mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 37.2/49.2 - 978mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 39.8/46.4 - 989mb - 65mph
120 hrs - 43.2/42.7 - 990mb - 50mph - Extratropical

[Bane]

gordon has never been a category 4 storm.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Little change has taken place this afternoon with Hurricane Gordon, and no estimates have changed. It is still an impressive looking system on satellite, and satellite estimates continue to show between 105 and 120 kt, despite increasingly significant shear. The initial intensity remains 110 kt.

Whether or not Gordon has become an annular hurricane remains to be seen. I am starting to lean in the annular direction. Cooler water and shear will prevent any further strengthening, however, I don't see any more than a gradual weakening trend. I will maintain it as a hurricane right through Day 5 when it becomes extratropical, as the GFDL predicts. The threat to the Azores at the end is not as great as it looks due to the compact nature of Gordon.



Current - 30.2/54.9 - 948mb - 125mph
12 hrs - 32.0/53.2 - 950mb - 120mph
24 hrs - 33.7/51.8 - 956mb - 115mph
36 hrs - 34.9/50.6 - 957mb - 115mph
48 hrs - 36.5/48.7 - 963mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 37.5/45.9 - 967mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 38.3/42.4 - 972mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 39.8/35.6 - 977mb - 80mph
120 hrs - 41.2/27.3 - 975mb - 75mph - Extratropical

[senorpepr]

Whether or not Gordon has become an annular hurricane remains to be seen. I am starting to lean in the annular direction.

With all due respect, Gordon has a long way to become annular and the chances of it happening are rather slim.

Too many storms are declared "annular" by weather weenies when, in fact, very few reach that display.

[Evil Jeremy]

what are "annular" storms, anyways?

[senorpepr]

what are "annular" storms, anyways?

Essentially, it means it's perfectly round. It is completely symmetrical. The storm, in terms of satellite signature, has the same radius on every side of the storm. There is no tail or anything of the sort.

Gordon is definately not annular. Gordon is as annular as Britney Spears is Chinese.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #13

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After reaching its peak overnight, Gordon is starting to weaken. Satellite images are not as spectacular as they previously were. Nonetheless, despite high wind shear, Gordon is still a very healthy system, with Dvorak estimates widely ranging from 90 to 120 kt. The initial intensity is set at 105 kt.

Thoughts of going annular are gone now with the well-defined banding of the storm and increasing outflow. Nonetheless, the weakening trend should be gradual, as Gordon enters cooler water. The track is adjusted slightly to the left.



Current - 30.6/54.3 - 957mb - 120mph
12 hrs - 32.5/52.6 - 964mb - 110mph
24 hrs - 34.5/50.9 - 969mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 36.3/49.3 - 976mb - 85mph
48 hrs - 38.2/46.9 - 979mb - 80mph
60 hrs - 40.2/43.8 - 982mb - 75mph
72 hrs - 41.4/40.2 - 988mb - 65mph
96 hrs - 42.9/32.0 - 989mb - 60mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 43.3/23.1 - 989mb - 60mph - Extratropical

[Bane]

nhc published intensity levels from 90 to 102KT on satellite estimates. what service did you use that said gordon has 120KT winds?

[CrazyC83]

nhc published intensity levels from 90 to 102KT on satellite estimates. what service did you use that said gordon has 120KT winds?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html had the 120. I knew it may have been old so I only gave that some consideration, coming to the 105 conclusion.

[wxmann_91]

nhc published intensity levels from 90 to 102KT on satellite estimates. what service did you use that said gordon has 120KT winds?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html had the 120. I knew it may have been old so I only gave that some consideration, coming to the 105 conclusion.

ODT's are notoriosly wrong on the high side, as the mets here have tried to reiterate over and over again. Remember it had Monica at sub-870?

[Bane]

nhc published intensity levels from 90 to 102KT on satellite estimates. what service did you use that said gordon has 120KT winds?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html had the 120. I knew it may have been old so I only gave that some consideration, coming to the 105 conclusion.

thanks for the response. sometimes it's probably better to throw out the outlier, especially if it is so much higher or even lower than the other estimates. pro mets do that all the time.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #14

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gordon continues to weaken and the pace has been accelerated this morning as cooler water takes it toll. The cloud tops are quite warm now and the structure has deteriorated. Nonetheless, outflow remains quite good. The initial intensity is reduced to 85 kt.

Thoughts of going annular are gone now with the well-defined banding of the storm and increasing outflow. Nonetheless, the weakening trend should be gradual, as Gordon enters cooler water. The track is adjusted slightly to the left.



Current - 31.1/53.3 - 968mb - 100mph
12 hrs - 31.7/52.7 - 979mb - 85mph
24 hrs - 32.5/52.0 - 983mb - 80mph
36 hrs - 33.6/50.6 - 986mb - 75mph
48 hrs - 35.0/48.9 - 990mb - 65mph
60 hrs - 36.7/47.1 - 991mb - 60mph
72 hrs - 38.4/44.6 - 991mb - 60mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 42.8/37.8 - 985mb - 60mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 45.3/30.2 - 982mb - 60mph - Extratropical

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #15

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gordon has now hit a brick wall in the central Atlantic and has been stopped in his tracks. The steering currents have collapsed and he is stationary. The eye has become somewhat ragged in shape and is not the clearest anymore. Dvorak estimates suggest a gradual weakening trend as well, so the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt.

The stillness is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, followed by acceleration to the east-northeast and becoming extratropical. The track and intensity forecasts are virtually unchanged.

The cone is now a 3-day cone.



Current - 31.1/53.5 - 974mb - 90mph
12 hrs - 31.6/52.9 - 982mb - 80mph
24 hrs - 32.3/52.3 - 987mb - 70mph
36 hrs - 33.2/51.0 - 992mb - 65mph
48 hrs - 34.8/49.6 - 993mb - 60mph - Transition to Extratropical
60 hrs - 37.0/46.8 - 990mb - 60mph - Extratropical
72 hrs - 39.8/42.5 - 986mb - 60mph - Extratropical
96 hrs - 43.4/30.9 - 985mb - 60mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 45.5/19.7 - 985mb - 50mph - Extratropical

[storms in NC]

If this is true then it will leave a open door for TSH. Right?

[hial2]

If this is true then it will leave a open door for TSH. Right?

From what i've read from the pros, that door has been shut and locked..

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #16

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gordon continues to be trapped in the ridge with no real motion available at this point. He has barely moved in the last 12 hours. However, a trough moving in from the west should sweep him away to sea soon as the ridge to the south builds in. While trapped, the cooler water has reduced the intensity very gradually as the eye becomes even more ragged. The initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

There is no real change to the track. The outflow pattern remains solid so weakening should be gradual as Gordon moves to the northeast. Within 3-4 days, Gordon should lose tropical characteristics as he moves rapidly into the east Atlantic.

The cone is now a 3-day cone.



Current - 31.3/53.4 - 980mb - 85mph
12 hrs - 31.9/52.8 - 985mb - 75mph
24 hrs - 32.6/52.0 - 988mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 34.7/49.8 - 991mb - 65mph
48 hrs - 36.3/47.0 - 991mb - 60mph - Transition to Extratropical
60 hrs - 39.7/42.5 - 985mb - 65mph - Extratropical
72 hrs - 41.3/37.7 - 982mb - 65mph - Extratropical
96 hrs - 43.7/27.5 - 980mb - 60mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - Absorbed by front

[TheRingo]

sure hasn't moved much, just a little west?

03 GMT 09/16/06 31.3N 53.4W 85 980 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/16/06 31.3N 53.7W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/16/06 31.3N 53.7W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #17

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gordon remains in a steady state over the Atlantic. However, some movement may be starting to take place as an oncoming trough sweeps Gordon away. The eyewall still exists but is very ragged. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.

Movement should begin soon as the trough comes in, but it will be slow at first. Cooler water should weaken the storm as it picks up forward motion. Eventually it will become extratropical as it tracks east.

The cone is now a 3-day cone.



Current - 31.3/53.5 - 987mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 31.6/52.9 - 991mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 32.8/51.4 - 993mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 35.5/48.3 - 994mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 38.3/44.7 - 994mb - 60mph - Transition to Extratropical
60 hrs - 41.0/40.4 - 991mb - 50mph - Extratropical
72 hrs - 42.9/33.8 - 988mb - 50mph - Extratropical
96 hrs - Absorbed by front