HH Helene Forecasts

[KatDaddy]

LOL HouTXmetro!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

???

[WindRunner]

I like how you, like me, avoided using the word Helene until 08L.Helene appears. After all, if it fizzles (not likely), we avoid having "jumped the gun" on the name and only used appearances for the strength.

That's how the JTWC does things in the rest of the world, and if you make the analogy that you are the JTWC (the unofficial data source) and NHC is the NHC/JMA/BoM/assorted others (the official data source), then TS 8L is the appropriate designation until the system receives a name.

[LaBreeze]

It'll be a fish.

[Evil Jeremy]

TS8 moving over the Atlantic.

TS8 is still moving west at 15 MPH, and this, with an increase of speed, should continue over the next 36 hours.

TS8 currently has estimated wind speeds at 40 MPH and a pressure of 1006 MB. However, due to its lack of organization, it could be downgraded back to a TD by us soon.

Some of the 0000Z and 0600Z models, such as the NOGAPS have stopped forecasting on a recurve, while others, such as the GFDL forecast less of a recurve. All of these models, however, turn to the north at one point, and there mostly early on in the forecast track, but less northward turn than predicted.

Our new cone is basically an update of the old one. We still don’t forecast TS8 being picked up and recurve into the mid-Atlantic. For this cone, we have a general WSW-WNW for the first 4 days, and a West-NW movement on day 5.

Right now, everyone from the Caribbean to the Bahamas to the SE USA and Bermuda should be watching “Eight”, because there is possibility that he could visit you soon.

INITIAL 35KT
12HR 40KT
24HR 40KT
48HR 50KT
72HR 60KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 70KT
120HR 80KT

[Evil Jeremy]

[Evil Jeremy]

TS8 continues heading through the Atlantic.

Just when I was tempted enough to downgrade “Eight” back down to a Tropical Depression, I noticed its increase in organization, so I kept it at its current intensity.

Winds are still estimated to be at 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1005 MB.

Over the last few hours, it has been hard to tell where TS8 has been going. Data shows it heading WNW right now, but to stay on the safe side, were keeping it at West.

After a center reformation, it has been hard to pinpoint a real center, so once again, to be on the safe side, were marking it at 13N and 30W.

The models have been changing all day long. This morning, they were tightly clustered, but now, there more apart. Our new cone slightly resembles a track that is resembled in the new NOGAPS run, which shows TS8 heading WNW for a while, turning NW-NNW, and then back to the west. The cone for this track is very wide as it is, so please do not only judge by the center of the cone.

When a real wind field devolves, it could be as big as “Florence’s” was, or possibly even bigger due to its current size.

INITIAL 35KT
12HR 40KT
24HR 45KT
48HR 50KT
72HR 60KT
<b>USE WITH CAUTION
96HR 70KT
120HR 85KT

Forecaster Silberman

[Damar91]

As usual Jeremy, a great job. Although I suspect there are those that may not like you having a Cat 2 headed right for the islands. Hopefully for them, Helene takes the more north part of your track.

[HurricaneHunter914]

He might be actually right. The models appear to be shifting towards the left slightly, but that forecast will be changed overtime.

[Evil Jeremy]

thank you all for your complements. i try my best!

[Evil Jeremy]

Helene finally named.

This advisory serves as an update for the new cone and intensity forecast.

Wind speeds and pressure remain the same at 40 MPH and 1005 MB. Helene could be entering a rapid intensification phase now.

Helene is headed for the WNW at around 20 MPH now, and this is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours.

For our new track/cone, we have Helene heading WNW-NW for the next 5 days. This is based on the latest model runs, which are agreeing less and less wit every run now, and its continued westward general motion. The forecasted recurve is now longer forecasted, or at least not in our 5-day cone now. Look at the cone for more info.

INITIAL 35KT<BR>
12HR 40KT<BR>
24HR 55KT<BR>
48HR 70KT<BR>
72HR 80KT<BR>
<b>USE WITH CAUTION:<b><BR>
96HR 90KT<BR>
120HR 95KT<BR><BR>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You do a great job EJ. Keep up the good work.

[Evil Jeremy]

Helene racing towards the Caribbean.

Helene could be one of the most interesting storms this year. Most likely, it will end up with the size of Florence and strength of Gordon at one point.

Its wind speeds are still estimated to be at 40 MPH, with a pressure of 1005 MB. The only things prohibiting strengthening is the lack of convection near the center, which is expected to reach that area later today, and its high movement speeds, which are also expected to slow down.

Helene is heading towards the west at a very high speed of 22 MPH. this is expected to continue for another 24 hours before turning a little more to the north and also slowing down a bit.

As I said in the last advisory, the models agree less and less with each run. However, there is one thing that they do agree on, and that is that the storm will turn NW tomorrow. However, every model has a different point for the NW turn, which generates hundreds miles of uncertainty. The A98E is not being counted in this track because it forecasts a WSW motion over the next 4 days. I’m not saying that is impossible, but it isn’t the most likely path for Helene at the moment. A few models that should be noted are the NOGAPS, which sends it on a very wobbly path to the WNW or NW for 5 days with no turn to the north, and the GFDN, which shows Helene slowing down dramatically after today, and is the slowest of all the models.

Taking the 0000Z model runs into account, our forecast cone has changed somewhat. We now see a West-WNW motion for today and part of tomorrow, followed by a NW motion for the following three days, ending off with a WNW motion again.

Right now, Bermuda should keep their eye on this system. It is still too early to tell if it will hit anyone, but Bermuda has the biggest chances of a hit right now. Even if you don’t get a direct hit, the wind field will still be very large and you still could be affected.

INITIAL 35KT
12HR 40KT
24HR 50KT
48HR 65KT
72HR 75KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 85KT
120HR 90KT

[cycloneye]

I think you may have to bump the intensity from 35kts to 40kts at the initial plot as the models do that at 12:00z.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think you may have to bump the intensity from 35kts to 40kts at the initial plot as the models do that at 12:00z.

i had the advisory writen 2 1/2 hours ago, but i couldnt upload it when it should of been because of school internet problems, so this info is based off of the info before 8:00AM EDT.

[Evil Jeremy]

Helene 2:00PM EDT Update

Helene continues to strengthen as it moves across the Atlantic. Our estimates now have Helene as a 50 MPH Tropical Storm, with a pressure of 1003 MB. The hardest thing so far about this storm is how to track it, because of all of the center reformations and wobbles it has been making. However, we currently have it at around 14N and 37W, heading at 22 MPH going West with occasional wobbles to the north and south. Over the past 10 hours, convection has been reforming near the center, but waning father away from the center. For this, and the nice outflow, we have added another 5 MPH onto its current intensity.

Overall, the storm has been making a WNW motion, were seeing this as a wobble. If this persists, we will change the overall movement to WNW.

The next full advisory will be online before 5:00 PM EDT today.

[Evil Jeremy]

Helene continues westward.

What seemed to be a WNW motion earlier seemed to be a wobble, and it has resumed a Westward motion at an estimated 15 MPH.

Winds are still estimated to be at 50 MPH and with a lowered pressure of 1003 MB.

The models continue to forecast a huge break in the ridge. In fact, yesterday morning, models forecasted it to be starting a recurve right about now, which is not happening. I do expect a break large enough to cause a NW motion, but only for 24 hours tops. This should begin in around 48-72 hours now. After that NW motion, it should resume a West to WNW motion for the rest of the five day period.

The wind field continues to grow, and the TS winds now extend to up 105 Miles in diameter.

Our current center position is a little more south and west of the current NHC position.

INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR VT 55 MPH
24HR VT 60 MPH
36HR VT 65 MPH
48HR VT 75 MPH
72HR VT 75 MPH
96HR VT 100 MPH
120HR VT 105 MPH

[jusforsean]

Hey Evil since we are neighbors, if your gut ever tells you a storm is heading our way give me a heads up it takes me like 3 days to prepare and evacuate for a cat 2-3

where do you live?

davie

[Evil Jeremy]

ah!

[sma10]

Helene continues westward.

What seemed to be a WNW motion earlier seemed to be a wobble, and it has resumed a Westward motion at an estimated 15 MPH.

Winds are still estimated to be at 50 MPH and with a lowered pressure of 1003 MB.

The models continue to forecast a huge break in the ridge. In fact, yesterday morning, models forecasted it to be starting a recurve right about now, which is not happening. I do expect a break large enough to cause a NW motion, but only for 24 hours tops. This should begin in around 48-72 hours now. After that NW motion, it should resume a West to WNW motion for the rest of the five day period.

The wind field continues to grow, and the TS winds now extend to up 105 Miles in diameter.

Our current center position is a little more south and west of the current NHC position.

INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR VT 55 MPH
24HR VT 60 MPH
36HR VT 65 MPH
48HR VT 75 MPH
72HR VT 75 MPH
96HR VT 100 MPH
120HR VT 105 MPH

The intensity guidance looks very reasonable. I strongly disagree with your track, however. Way too far south and west. Your track implies a serious threat to the islands, a threat which does not exist at this time.