CrazyC83's Helene Forecast #19 - Drastic change - out to sea
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CrazyC83
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Swimdude wrote:I'm in great disagreement with the possibility of rapid strengthening with this storm. It was "near tropical storm" status yesterday, and today it's just kinda hangin' in there. I'm unsure of whether this will be a fish or not. It's at a nice point where it could go either way really...
That's several days away if it does happen...
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CrazyC83
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Tropical Storm Eight Prediction #5
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
There have been conflicting signs on this system. The organization has definitely improved somewhat and the satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. With little else available in that position, I have to leave the initial intensity at 35 kt. That may be a high or low estimate though.
The track has not changed much and neither has the intensity forecast. The SAL will continue to slow development in the short term, but the prospects beyond that look solid for a significant hurricane in the days ahead.
Current - 12.5/30.1 - 1004mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 12.6/32.7 - 1002mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 12.7/33.2 - 1000mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 13.1/37.9 - 995mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 13.4/41.1 - 993mb - 60mph
60 hrs - 13.8/44.2 - 988mb - 70mph
72 hrs - 14.3/47.0 - 983mb - 80mph
96 hrs - 15.4/52.8 - 967mb - 100mph
120 hrs - 16.8/58.9 - 949mb - 125mph
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
There have been conflicting signs on this system. The organization has definitely improved somewhat and the satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. With little else available in that position, I have to leave the initial intensity at 35 kt. That may be a high or low estimate though.
The track has not changed much and neither has the intensity forecast. The SAL will continue to slow development in the short term, but the prospects beyond that look solid for a significant hurricane in the days ahead.
Current - 12.5/30.1 - 1004mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 12.6/32.7 - 1002mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 12.7/33.2 - 1000mb - 50mph
36 hrs - 13.1/37.9 - 995mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 13.4/41.1 - 993mb - 60mph
60 hrs - 13.8/44.2 - 988mb - 70mph
72 hrs - 14.3/47.0 - 983mb - 80mph
96 hrs - 15.4/52.8 - 967mb - 100mph
120 hrs - 16.8/58.9 - 949mb - 125mph
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senorpepr
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CrazyC83 wrote:There have been conflicting signs on this system. The organization has definitely improved somewhat and the satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. With little else available in that position, I have to leave the initial intensity at 35 kt. That may be a high or low estimate though.
The track has not changed much and neither has the intensity forecast. The SAL will continue to slow development in the short term, but the prospects beyond that look solid for a significant hurricane in the days ahead.
I have a few questions with you. I'm asking because I'm curious to your thinking.
You say there are conflicting signs with this system. I haven't seen such conflicting signs. What exactly are these signs?
You say satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. I haven't seen a reliable Dvorak estimate that shows tropical storm strength. Right now TAFB has T2.0 which yields 35 mph. SAB and AFWA both have T1.5 or 30 mph.
I'm interested in why you have upgraded to a tropical storm for nearly 24 hours now while the storm remains a depression.
Thanks.
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CrazyC83
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- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
senorpepr wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:There have been conflicting signs on this system. The organization has definitely improved somewhat and the satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. With little else available in that position, I have to leave the initial intensity at 35 kt. That may be a high or low estimate though.
The track has not changed much and neither has the intensity forecast. The SAL will continue to slow development in the short term, but the prospects beyond that look solid for a significant hurricane in the days ahead.
I have a few questions with you. I'm asking because I'm curious to your thinking.
You say there are conflicting signs with this system. I haven't seen such conflicting signs. What exactly are these signs?
You say satellite estimates remain at tropical storm strength. I haven't seen a reliable Dvorak estimate that shows tropical storm strength. Right now TAFB has T2.0 which yields 35 mph. SAB and AFWA both have T1.5 or 30 mph.
I'm interested in why you have upgraded to a tropical storm for nearly 24 hours now while the storm remains a depression.
Thanks.
I will likely bring it back down to 30 kt at the next advisory unless signs do indeed change between now and then. This site - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html - has it at T2.5 (35 kt) - it was as high as T2.7 - and the Quikscat yesterday had barbs of 40+ winds (which I don't know were reliable but they have gone). Also, the METEOSAT satellites there update only every 6 hours and there are no floaters so it makes such difficult.
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senorpepr
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Ahh...
That explains a lot. Unforunately, the automated Dvorak isn't too reliable, especially when TAFB, SAB, and AFWA are near the same. Those three agencies don't talk with each other before issuing their estimates, so the NHC has three unaltered forecaster opinions. Furthermore, that ADT usually runs a little too high. It's been set to lean toward the pessimistic side.
As for QUIKSCAT, most of those barbs were rain-contaminated.
Finally, a lot of people have the same problem with you in terms of METEOSAT. Believe it or not, MET-8 updates every 15 minutes, but is only released to the general public every six hours. NRL does have floaters that run off of MET-8 and update every 15 minutes. Also, check out the AFWA Public page--they have MET-8 imagery updated every 15 minutes.
That explains a lot. Unforunately, the automated Dvorak isn't too reliable, especially when TAFB, SAB, and AFWA are near the same. Those three agencies don't talk with each other before issuing their estimates, so the NHC has three unaltered forecaster opinions. Furthermore, that ADT usually runs a little too high. It's been set to lean toward the pessimistic side.
As for QUIKSCAT, most of those barbs were rain-contaminated.
Finally, a lot of people have the same problem with you in terms of METEOSAT. Believe it or not, MET-8 updates every 15 minutes, but is only released to the general public every six hours. NRL does have floaters that run off of MET-8 and update every 15 minutes. Also, check out the AFWA Public page--they have MET-8 imagery updated every 15 minutes.
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SouthFloridawx
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http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en
This site updates it's images every Hour even during satelite eclispe from our sat. It has a variety of different output for which you can choose from.
http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en
This site updates it's images every Hour even during satelite eclispe from our sat. It has a variety of different output for which you can choose from.
http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en
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Your forecast differs significantly from the NHC. That is your prerogative since this forum allows amateurs to post forecasts.
However, you do not provide any logical reasoning for your track forecast. (For example, the NHC always includes a paragraph that comments on their track, citing model solutions and synoptic patterns.) If you simply post a map with an arrow surrounded by a cone, but do not include why your forecast differs from all known model solutions, we have no choice but to assume that your forecast is based purely on gut feelings.
However, you do not provide any logical reasoning for your track forecast. (For example, the NHC always includes a paragraph that comments on their track, citing model solutions and synoptic patterns.) If you simply post a map with an arrow surrounded by a cone, but do not include why your forecast differs from all known model solutions, we have no choice but to assume that your forecast is based purely on gut feelings.
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CrazyC83
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Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #6
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The NHC gave it the name Helene, but little has changed in my view in terms of strength. It is, however, much better organized than previously. Having said that, there is nothing that suggests any increase in intensity at this time. The initial intensity remains 35 kt.
The track is quite uncertain. A trough opening could allow a right turn at about 60 hours, however, the fast forward motion could outrun the trough. The track is moved a bit to the right at that point, but another westerly turn is ultimately made and it remains well south of the NHC prediction. The intensity is fairly straightforward - the track remains south of the SAL, and shear is low, so strengthening is the order of the day. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should closely follow the progress of what could be a very dangerous hurricane.
Current - 13.1/32.7 - 1004mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 13.5/35.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.1/37.5 - 995mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 14.3/40.1 - 987mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.2/42.5 - 982mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.6/44.8 - 974mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 17.4/47.2 - 960mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 18.4/52.0 - 943mb - 135mph
120 hrs - 19.0/56.6 - 935mb - 145mph
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The NHC gave it the name Helene, but little has changed in my view in terms of strength. It is, however, much better organized than previously. Having said that, there is nothing that suggests any increase in intensity at this time. The initial intensity remains 35 kt.
The track is quite uncertain. A trough opening could allow a right turn at about 60 hours, however, the fast forward motion could outrun the trough. The track is moved a bit to the right at that point, but another westerly turn is ultimately made and it remains well south of the NHC prediction. The intensity is fairly straightforward - the track remains south of the SAL, and shear is low, so strengthening is the order of the day. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should closely follow the progress of what could be a very dangerous hurricane.
Current - 13.1/32.7 - 1004mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 13.5/35.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.1/37.5 - 995mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 14.3/40.1 - 987mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.2/42.5 - 982mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.6/44.8 - 974mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 17.4/47.2 - 960mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 18.4/52.0 - 943mb - 135mph
120 hrs - 19.0/56.6 - 935mb - 145mph
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CrazyC83
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- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #7
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The center seems to be reforming well, well to the south of the currently located center. That will be the location for the forecast. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt in agreement with the NHC, a blend of the Dvorak estimates.
While the models are consistently showing a quick turn to the NW, they were initialized well to the north and can be disregarded due to an ULL in the area that has not materialized. There is little change to the forecast track here. Strengthening is expected to be gradual but steady as the large circulation works to get its act together. Still, combined with its large size, it could be an especially dangerous hurricane in the days ahead.
Current - 12.4/36.1 - 1003mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 12.5/39.0 - 998mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 12.8/42.1 - 993mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 13.4/44.9 - 986mb - 75mph
48 hrs - 14.4/47.3 - 978mb - 85mph
60 hrs - 14.8/49.8 - 970mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 15.4/52.4 - 957mb - 115mph
96 hrs - 17.5/57.5 - 939mb - 145mph
120 hrs - 20.1/62.4 - 937mb - 145mph
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The center seems to be reforming well, well to the south of the currently located center. That will be the location for the forecast. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt in agreement with the NHC, a blend of the Dvorak estimates.
While the models are consistently showing a quick turn to the NW, they were initialized well to the north and can be disregarded due to an ULL in the area that has not materialized. There is little change to the forecast track here. Strengthening is expected to be gradual but steady as the large circulation works to get its act together. Still, combined with its large size, it could be an especially dangerous hurricane in the days ahead.
Current - 12.4/36.1 - 1003mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 12.5/39.0 - 998mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 12.8/42.1 - 993mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 13.4/44.9 - 986mb - 75mph
48 hrs - 14.4/47.3 - 978mb - 85mph
60 hrs - 14.8/49.8 - 970mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 15.4/52.4 - 957mb - 115mph
96 hrs - 17.5/57.5 - 939mb - 145mph
120 hrs - 20.1/62.4 - 937mb - 145mph
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gatorcane
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Damar91 wrote:Crazy, I have to ask, what do you see that could possibly make this storm stay that far south? Not questioning your forecast, I just don't see anything, but maybe you see something different. Thanks!
Yeah Crazy I think you have gone Crazy, the track take it into the Herbert Box and I don't see that happening.
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Evil Jeremy
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