WTPZ33 KNHC 132328
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN MARCOS THROUGH ACAPULCO TO
TECOMAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAIN COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression Lane in EPAC=Last Advisory Written
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ43 KNHC 140250
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A LARGE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY YET. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY
PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL TO WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
REACHING COOLER WATERS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...NO CHANGES IN THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR
MEXICO ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.6N 102.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A LARGE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY YET. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY
PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL TO WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
REACHING COOLER WATERS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...NO CHANGES IN THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR
MEXICO ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.6N 102.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140857
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CHANGE THIS
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...102.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140855
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING BANDING NOTED TO THE WEST. BASED
ON THIS TREND AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
UW CIMSS ADT...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.
LANE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS
EVIDENCED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO PRODUCING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 46% PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS RATE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEARED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE INTENSITY
IS PROBLEMATIC. SHOULD LANE TRACK OVER OR WEST OF BAJA...COOLER
WATERS AND LAND INTERACTION WOULD FAVOR WEAKENING. IF LANE TAKES A
MORE EASTWARD MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/9...AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LANE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING LANE TO TURN INCREASINGLY
NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REQUIRING A LARGER THAN NORMAL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST INDICATES AN
INCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL
DURING HURRICANE JOHN...IS THE EASTERNMOST DYNAMICAL MODEL AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS
OFTEN STRUGGLE IN SITUATIONS WHERE CYCLONES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE TRACK BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. IF LANE MAINTAINS VERTICAL DEPTH...IT COULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW. A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO CONTINUE
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD
MOTION...ALBEIT IT VERY SLOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.9N 102.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA
120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 60 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
WTPZ33 KNHC 140857
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CHANGE THIS
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...102.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140855
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING BANDING NOTED TO THE WEST. BASED
ON THIS TREND AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
UW CIMSS ADT...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.
LANE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS
EVIDENCED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO PRODUCING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 46% PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS RATE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEARED APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE INTENSITY
IS PROBLEMATIC. SHOULD LANE TRACK OVER OR WEST OF BAJA...COOLER
WATERS AND LAND INTERACTION WOULD FAVOR WEAKENING. IF LANE TAKES A
MORE EASTWARD MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/9...AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LANE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING LANE TO TURN INCREASINGLY
NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REQUIRING A LARGER THAN NORMAL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST INDICATES AN
INCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL
DURING HURRICANE JOHN...IS THE EASTERNMOST DYNAMICAL MODEL AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS
OFTEN STRUGGLE IN SITUATIONS WHERE CYCLONES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE TRACK BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. IF LANE MAINTAINS VERTICAL DEPTH...IT COULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW. A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO CONTINUE
NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD
MOTION...ALBEIT IT VERY SLOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.9N 102.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA
120HR VT 19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W 60 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
075
WTPZ33 KNHC 141143
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...RAINBANDS AFFECTING
THE COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
150 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...103.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 141143
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...RAINBANDS AFFECTING
THE COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
150 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...103.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
big mistake here!!!!!!!
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
big mistake here!!!!!!!
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
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- Location: near Sydney, Australia
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
HURAKAN wrote:AussieMark wrote:why is it a mistake?
If they are under a Hurricane Watch, then the NHC should explain what a Hurricane Watch means.
Therefore, the mistake is that a Hurricane Watch was issued and the NHC is explaining what a Hurricane Warning is.
ah yeah
at Mark (me)
its 12:30am in my defence
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Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
HE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
they issued a Hurricane Watch but it was written as a warning!
STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
they issued a Hurricane Watch but it was written as a warning!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
AussieMark wrote:HURAKAN wrote:AussieMark wrote:why is it a mistake?
If they are under a Hurricane Watch, then the NHC should explain what a Hurricane Watch means.
Therefore, the mistake is that a Hurricane Watch was issued and the NHC is explaining what a Hurricane Warning is.
ah yeah
its 12:30am in my defence
I can relate to that!!!
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Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
-
Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141433
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 520 MILES...
840 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 141433
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 520 MILES...
840 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34088
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
The warning there is likely an error. I believe it is a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning (which means one of two things: either the storm is uncertain in intensity - certainly will hit as a tropical storm with a chance of reaching hurricane intensity - which it is in this case, or the track of a hurricane is expected at that time to bring tropical storm conditions, but a deviation could mean hurricane conditions).
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ33 KNHC 141734
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF LANE OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LAND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34088
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2006 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 17:48:07 N Lon : 104:46:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.9mb/ 55.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.9 4.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb
Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2006 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 17:48:07 N Lon : 104:46:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.9mb/ 55.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.9 4.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb
Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
320
WTPZ33 KNHC 142040
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS.
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORREIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 460 MILES
...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...105.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
296
WTPZ43 KNHC 142040
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL...
AND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS
MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND
45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS
MORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME
POINT. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A
TRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST
OUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. GIVEN
THE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS
MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A
SHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. I AM NOT READY TO MAKE
THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER
PERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL
ITSELF. THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE
IS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ33 KNHC 142040
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...LANE STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS.
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORREIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 460 MILES
...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
LANE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...105.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
296
WTPZ43 KNHC 142040
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL...
AND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS
MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND
45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS
MORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME
POINT. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A
TRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST
OUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. GIVEN
THE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS
MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A
SHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. I AM NOT READY TO MAKE
THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER
PERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL
ITSELF. THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE
IS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
This storm is like Helene in terms of the big area it covers.That is why the atches and warnings for the Mexican coast.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Lane is a medium to large tropical cyclone with lots of banding to the South of the system. Around early this afternoon to late morning, there was quite a lot of deep convection with the cyclone and then by late afternoon it faded away. What's happening is that Lane is going to start some intense strengthening cycle at any time now. There is a inner structure forming and I can tell based off sat loops that it's spinning fast. Could undergo RI later tonight or early morning.
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane becoming a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 86%
Category 2 Hurricane: 71%
Category 3 Hurricane: 56%
Category 4 Hurricane: 30%
Category 5 Hurricane: 4%
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane strengthening:
Very Slowly: 10%
Slowly: 15%
Steadily: 40%
Quickly: 65%
Very Quickly: 65%
Rapidly: 64%
Extremely Rapidly: 20%
Wilma type: 0.03%
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane weakening:
Very Slowly: 5%
Slowly: 3%
Steadily: 2%
Quickly: 1%
Very Quickly: 0.5%
Rapidly: 0.1%
Extremely Rapidly: 0.01%
Those are my thoughts.
Lane is a medium to large tropical cyclone with lots of banding to the South of the system. Around early this afternoon to late morning, there was quite a lot of deep convection with the cyclone and then by late afternoon it faded away. What's happening is that Lane is going to start some intense strengthening cycle at any time now. There is a inner structure forming and I can tell based off sat loops that it's spinning fast. Could undergo RI later tonight or early morning.
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane becoming a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 86%
Category 2 Hurricane: 71%
Category 3 Hurricane: 56%
Category 4 Hurricane: 30%
Category 5 Hurricane: 4%
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane strengthening:
Very Slowly: 10%
Slowly: 15%
Steadily: 40%
Quickly: 65%
Very Quickly: 65%
Rapidly: 64%
Extremely Rapidly: 20%
Wilma type: 0.03%
First % chance of Tropical Storm Lane weakening:
Very Slowly: 5%
Slowly: 3%
Steadily: 2%
Quickly: 1%
Very Quickly: 0.5%
Rapidly: 0.1%
Extremely Rapidly: 0.01%
Those are my thoughts.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
308
WTPZ33 KNHC 142358
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430 MILES
...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
WTPZ33 KNHC 142358
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
EL ROBLITO...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES...AND INCLUDES THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 430 MILES
...690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE
WOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND LANE IS FORECAST TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LANE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146118
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
694
WTPZ23 KNHC 150236
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD
TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
WTPZ23 KNHC 150236
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD
TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 104.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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