Invest 95L Models, Sat Pics, Analysis Thread- SE of Cape Cod

#21 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I believe if this transtions to a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

it doesn't really matter. That trough is so large it will cleanup everything in the Atlantic that is north of about 20N-25N

IMO Not really. The front will not be as strong when it comes off the east coast.

Website · #22 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:13 pm

storms in NC wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I believe if this transtions to a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

it doesn't really matter. That trough is so large it will cleanup everything in the Atlantic that is north of about 20N-25N

IMO Not really. The front will not be as strong when it comes off the east coast.

What evidence do you have to support this? This is going to be a massive trough.

cinlfla · #23 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:15 pm

Brent wrote:
storms in NC wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I believe if this transtions to a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

it doesn't really matter. That trough is so large it will cleanup everything in the Atlantic that is north of about 20N-25N

IMO Not really. The front will not be as strong when it comes off the east coast.

What evidence do you have to support this? This is going to be a massive trough.

Wow massive trough. What are the temps going to be like behind it. I would love to have some cooler weather.

#24 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:22 pm

if you watch the loop here you can see it will not be as strong. As it moves off shore you can see it weaking. I didn't say it wasn't a strong front but it weakens as it moves off shore. JMO

Complete 12z GFS Loop

Website · #25 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:23 pm

cinlfla wrote:
Brent wrote:
storms in NC wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I believe if this transtions to a tropical low or tropical cyclone, it may alow Helene to go further west. If it deepens as a non-tropical low, it will steer Helene to the NE, assuming it doesn't move much from where it is now.

it doesn't really matter. That trough is so large it will cleanup everything in the Atlantic that is north of about 20N-25N

IMO Not really. The front will not be as strong when it comes off the east coast.

What evidence do you have to support this? This is going to be a massive trough.

Wow massive trough. What are the temps going to be like behind it. I would love to have some cooler weather.

I'm not sure about Florida, but they are predicting Upper 40's/Mid 70's on Wednesday here. That's pretty unusual for Mid-September. We were near 90 today.

Emmett_Brown · #26 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:28 pm

storms in NC wrote:if you watch the loop here you can see it will not be as strong. As it moves off shore you can see it weaking. I didn't say it wasn't a strong front but it weakens as it moves off shore. JMO

Complete 12z GFS Loop

link please?

WindRunner · #27 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:29 pm

One of the final vis images of the day, convection is somewhat wrapping around the center. If it doesn't increase overnight, though, it won't be able to develop before flying off to the NE.

#28 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:49 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
storms in NC wrote:if you watch the loop here you can see it will not be as strong. As it moves off shore you can see it weaking. I didn't say it wasn't a strong front but it weakens as it moves off shore. JMO

Complete 12z GFS Loop

link please?

Sorry it didn't work. But any way I said IMO not that is was a sure thing. here is the page to where the GFS loops are. And again sorry didn't mean to ruff you all up I did say IMO.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 5a504b2986

#29 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:57 pm

And as you all see here the east coast of NC is safe for the high builds in behind the front.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRONT WILL BE FAST-MOVING AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST IN THE
EVENING. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WILL
SHUT OFF QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. TAPERED POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST AND ENDED ALL RAIN AFTER 05Z WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

#30 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:43 pm

If diurnal maxima doesn't have an effect on this system, development then is out of the question.

Thunder44 · #31 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:58 pm

I think think this system mainly in the upper-levels and will remain non-tropical.

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:22 am

18/1145 UTC 34.3N 68.9W ST1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Thunder44 · #33 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:53 am

HURAKAN wrote:18/1145 UTC 34.3N 68.9W ST1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Notice it gives it a ST number, which means it looks more subtropical than tropical.

#34 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:58 am

Just scatered convection beneath a large upper-level low surrounded by dry air. Chances of development are low. The frontal system moving off the east U.S. Coast tomorow will sweep it out to sea. Little chance of it developing before then.

#35 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:58 am

I know, I'm more surprised that it's 1.5 given the organization of the system!!!

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:11 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 18, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gordon...located about 1125 miles west of the Azores...and on
Hurricane Helene...located about 1090 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

A non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina is drifting eastward.
Development...if any...would occur before the system merges
with a cold front in a couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.

Forecaster Avila

#37 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:46 pm

If this did Develop What would it do with Helene? Even if it was just a TD. It is moving to the ENE from what I can see this evening.

Epsilon_Fan · #38 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:05 pm

doesn't it seem to be trying to develop convection near the center now? It's stil la swirl but it looks better than yesterday

Epsilon_Fan · #39 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:07 pm

WindRunner · #40 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:38 pm

Since no one else posted it, 5:30 TWO is now favorable for it.

ABNT20 KNHC 192111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE
AZORES...AND ON HURRICANE HELENE...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
A LITTLE TODAY...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LOW
REACHES COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Invest 95L Models, Sat Pics, Analysis Thread- SE of Cape Cod

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