Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing?

#21 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:25 pm

Thanks for adding some more logic to the thread CVW!

Hey, I would like the peaceful season to continue and NO storms to develop in the Carib at all. So, I am not refuting the above statements in any attempt to wishcast. Hey, NO WAY.

But I can't simply accept an off the cuff comment that anything that develops down there would be a sheared TS.

Finally, Stormcenter; the comments were not restricted to storms off of old fronts, it was a blanket statement that I think was simply ridiculous with no back up for it.

#22 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:27 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:How many "major" hurricanes have formed off of old fronts in late September or October? If I can recall very,very few.

My point is I'm not saying we won't see a weak hurricane (unlikely IMO)in the GOM but only saying that it is very unlikely we will see a "major" hurricane form off an old stalled front. I wouldn't use Wilma as comparison just based on last was not a "normal" season to begin with.

I have to disagree with your last sentence strongly. There are numerous hurricanes (including several Category Three storms or higher) and tropical storms that have developed in other years late in the season besides 2005. Also, just because 2005 had an anomalous total number of named systems, Wilma wasn't anomalous at all (other than the record low pressure at peak intensity). Recall Mitch (1998) and Janet (1955), as well as numerous other late-season storms from other years.

I am not saying a Cat. 3 or higher can't develop now but that the likelihood of one affecting the GOM coastline is now low and gets lower with each passing front. IMO Yes I know anything can happen but the odds are stacked against it. That is all I am saying. I was singing the same tune in the beginning of September so why should I change.

#23 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:32 pm

Because you are wrong, as a pro-met pointed out these same fronts are the trigger more often than you think. Look at the SST's in the GOM.

marcane_1973 · #24 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:34 pm

Not getting ready but has been singing since June 1st. 8-)

MiamiensisWx · #25 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:37 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:Not getting ready but has been singing since June 1st.

Sorry, but you have got to be kidding. This year has been not even close to as quiet as other years have been. There have actually been years (such as 1992 and 1983) with only one major hurricane, while we have had two thus far this year, both of which are still active.

#26 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:51 pm

History of major hit's in the GOM Sept./Oct.

Tx. 7/0
Ls. 7/3
Miss. 4/0
Ala. 4/0
Fld. 19/9

That is just Cat.3 and above and does not include Mexico.

#27 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:51 pm

I think people are just spoiled from last year's freakish season.
Actually some are "spoiled' because there was so much to do and follow last season and some of us were just plain worn out!

I agree, CVW; that this has been a very typical season.
Like the ones that I grew up with and that we had for many, many years.

Those who may have just started following the Tropics; due to last year's unprecedented activity, may incorrectly believe that storms contiunally foming is the "norm"

This season is more like the "norm" and we may NEVER see a season lilke 2005 again. At least in our lifetime.

#28 Postby **hial2** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:00 pm

This season is more like the "norm" and we may NEVER see a season lilke 2005 again. At least in our lifetime.[/quote]

From your mouth to God's ear...... 8-)

#29 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:09 pm

hial2 wrote:This season is more like the "norm" and we may NEVER see a season lilke 2005 again. At least in our lifetime.

From your mouth to God's ear......

Amen, brother!

And that comment goes beyond ALL religious beliefs and I would say is universally accepted!!!!!

StormWarning1 · #30 Postby **StormWarning1** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:30 pm

If a weak El Nino is occuring, which some people say is the case, then it is very unlikely for any Gulf or NW Carib. action the rest of the season. Here are 4 El Nino years.

1983, Nothing below 25N, typical of El Nino conditions.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1983.asp

1992, same story.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1992.asp

1997, Erika became a hurricane south of 20N but did not strengthen to a major until past 25N. Zip for the Gulf and NW Carib.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1992.asp

2004, A weak El Nino formed in mid Sept and nothing the rest of the season for gulf or carib.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2004.asp

2006 is typical of El Nino years. Everything struggles south of 20N in the Atlantic and nothing in the Gulf or Carib can get going. Looks like last call for a Hurricane in the next 10 days.

Lindaloo · #31 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:04 pm

I thought the MS Coast was safe after Labor Day, until Georges in 98.

#32 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:53 pm

Here is a frightening thought. Just think what this season would have been like number wise without El Nino; after all we will probably finish average, or slightly above at the end of the season. I have little doubt that with out El Nino (a la 1996 and 1998 to 1997) this would have been another active season, not 2005 active, but still a bad one.

Jim Cantore · #33 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:54 pm

Remember Kate and Opal. The GOM is not done by a long shot.

marcane_1973 · #34 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:06 pm

2006 is typical of El Nino years. Everything struggles south of 20N in the Atlantic and nothing in the Gulf or Carib can get going. Looks like last call for a Hurricane in the next 10 days.[/quote] Yeah after looking at satellite images in the Gom, Caribbean, and the central and eastern Atlantic tonight this season is coming to a halt and should be over as soon as Gordon and Helene take a ride on the trough expressway. The ULL off the African coast will inhibit anything that tries to develop and shear and dry air is placed all over the Atlantic. If all holds well goodbye 2006 Hurricane season and I am ready for a big winter here in the mountains of N.C. which should be a lot more exciting than this boring Hurricane season.

MiamiensisWx · #35 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:38 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:2006 is typical of El Nino years. Everything struggles south of 20N in the Atlantic and nothing in the Gulf or Carib can get going. Looks like last call for a Hurricane in the next 10 days. Yeah after looking at satellite images in the Gom, Caribbean, and the central and eastern Atlantic tonight this season is coming to a halt and should be over as soon as Gordon and Helene take a ride on the trough expressway. The ULL off the African coast will inhibit anything that tries to develop and shear and dry air is placed all over the Atlantic. If all holds well goodbye 2006 Hurricane season and I am ready for a big winter here in the mountains of N.C. which should be a lot more exciting than this boring Hurricane season.

Thanks for a better explanation that is, for once, devoid of the sarcasm and "season's over" nonsense that has been prevalent in most of your posts. I agree that the synoptics (both internal and atmospherical) favor not that many more named systems over the greater portion of the Atlantic Basin for the rest of the year. However, I disagree that we will see nothing more. Even in El Nino years, though considerably less frequent, we may still receive one (maybe, though not quite probably, two) late-season Caribbean/southern Gulf developments, either frontal or related to low pressure developing the western Caribbean. We may also see one deeper Atlantic subtropical development, possibly quite late in the season, before 2006 shuts down for good.

Nimbus · #36 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:04 pm

Something could get left behind by one of these troughs that have been digging down into the gulf. There might be a Bermuda high setting up after this last trough moves out. We've got close to a cat 3 hurricane whose track is even challenging for the experts, i'm not ready to leave my opera seat yet!

#37 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:08 pm

Watch this front about to exit the Tx. coast. I don't expect it to make it very far into the GOM before it stalls out. Next 7 days could tell.

#38 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:10 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Watch this front about to exit the Tx. coast. I don't expect it to make it very far into the GOM before it stalls out. Next 7 days could tell.

our weather guy said it was gonna stall in s. florida

#39 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:13 pm

Yes but it tails back all the way to Mexico with alot of X-Hurricane Lane's moisture embedded in it. A push to S.Florida would tail it into the middle GOM.

StormWarning1 · #40 Postby **StormWarning1** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:27 pm

It's difficult to get anything in the gulf and carribean with a developing El Nino. The culprits are southwesterly shear and a zonal flow pattern across the gulf that returns after a front lifts out. Check my post above for examples.
Another 2 weeks and the westerlies should be down to 30N. I expect a quiet end to the season.

Here comes a el nino.
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit ... om_2m.html

Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing?

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