GFS,NOGAPS,CMC,UKMET - Southwest Caribbean Development?

[Stormcenter]

With so much model alignment, overall, why all the negativity for seeing something develop? I could understand if only one model was showing it and it was 10 to 12 days out. But all of the major globals show something getting going down in the SW Caribbean in about a week. It's still hurricane season even though the press has stated that some at CPC/NOAA have declared the season over early this year. Probably not a good idea to have done that- you never know what Nature will do. In one week, we'll know.

Waters have been cooled down considerably and the NHC is not worried.

[hurricanetrack]

Not saying that anyone is worried- they shouldn't be but water temps are plenty warm to support a hurricane across most of the Gulf and all of the Caribbean. The global models are showing a TC developing for some reason- whether or not that happens is still a tough call to make. For the last several seasons in a row, we have had late and out of season development, so why quit now? All there needs to be is a window of opportunity and something can get going- even in the face of such a negative condition season. I don't know any more than just about anyone else around here, but in a week, I will certainly be looking to see whether or not the NHC is worried, or for that matter writing advisories, on the "J" storm. With the support of the various globals, it looks like a decent chance that this will happen.

[Vortex]

Nam 00z 11/12 also indicates developent of a TC over the SW carribean. The model consensus is very high on some form of devlopment over the sw carribean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

It could happen, there is a model consensus moreso than we have had all season long........

And I am more concerned with the Saturn hurricane and its possible impacts on Fla.

Sorry folks, I am preparing for Christmas, not hurricanes here LOL. Everyone in this forum is gonna be so BURNED if something comes of the models LOL!

However, I did find this funny and took a screenshot of wonderful noaa forecasting 5 hrs out (the same ppl who prononced the season over) Hmm any dicrepencies between tonights forecast and current conditions???

[Stormcenter]

Not saying that anyone is worried- they shouldn't be but water temps are plenty warm to support a hurricane across most of the Gulf and all of the Caribbean. The global models are showing a TC developing for some reason- whether or not that happens is still a tough call to make. For the last several seasons in a row, we have had late and out of season development, so why quit now? All there needs to be is a window of opportunity and something can get going- even in the face of such a negative condition season. I don't know any more than just about anyone else around here, but in a week, I will certainly be looking to see whether or not the NHC is worried, or for that matter writing advisories, on the "J" storm. With the support of the various globals, it looks like a decent chance that this will happen.

As I said before waters are getting cooler each passing day and on top of that it's 2006 the year of model "Ghost Storms". I say let's start thinking about Thanksgiving and a white Christmas.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[weatherwindow]

per the MWD from the TAFB, 130AM sunday....day 5....caribbean winds become moderate with some sort of low forming in the SW area....who knows....rich

[cycloneye]

6z GFS



No change from the past runs from GFS except for the track.

00z CMC



CMC is not as agressive in this run but still has the system in the SW caribbean.

00z NOGAPS



The 00z NOGAPS is strong with the SW Caribbean system.

I would not turn my back from this after two days in a row of global model consensus.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Dont forget the UKMET.....It still shows this as of the 00z
http://tinyurl.com/ym3hhk

[wxman57]

SSTs should not be an argument against development in the Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf:

https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

SSTs are 28-29C in that area, quite warm enough to support a moderate to strong hurricane. The question is -- will there be some type of disturbance to kick things off? All the models do see something developing down there. But as I've said, many of the models have shown development there for nearly 2 months and nothing has happened yet.

[hial2]

And I am more concerned with the Saturn hurricane and its possible impacts on Fla.

Dont we have a member that has knowledge of this type of correlation??
I'd like to hear his views..

[wxman57]

I can see the disturbance/wave that appears to be what the models are keying on. It's approaching Trinidad now along 60-61W between 10N-13N. The previous wave is now causing the thunderstorm flare-up in the Panama area but that system will move out into the Pacific. We'll have to watch the wave entering the SE Caribbean for potential development in 3-5 days. I'd give it maybe a 10% shot at developing and a much lower probability than that of actually affecting the SE U.S. But it could become the 11th TS of 2006 (#10 being the unnamed July 17th storm off Nova Scotia -- http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98La.gif).

[cycloneye]

Here is the wave that wxman57 was eluding to and it may be the trigger of the low that the global models are showing.

[wxman57]

And I am more concerned with the Saturn hurricane and its possible impacts on Fla.

Dont we have a member that has knowledge of this type of correlation??
I'd like to hear his views..

The quote above was meant to be a joke. There is no possible correltation between a storm on a distant planet and weather on Earth.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS



Once again GFS at it's 12z run shows it,now with a different track than the 00z and 6z runs earlier this morning.

[Aquawind]

That wave certainly looks like it could be a trigger Luis. That forecast path is pretty whacked and would involved a very weak steering pattern. As Unlikely as development is.. It's not over till it's over. I will be watching this one..the first in sometime actually. It's in a favorable area for develpoment. It will be warm core if it does develop. No serious cold fronts expected down here in SW Florida for the next 10 days so there should be some condusive weather for development.. Hopefully Mr Shear keeps it in check and just some good rain for everyone.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Wow,a very agressive Canadian model at 12z.

12z UKMET



The 12z UKMET is also agressive but not as strong as the CMC.

[ronjon]

If the global models are correct, we may have a tropical cyclone lurking in the Caribbean during Thanksgiving this year. Perhaps another Keith?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198812.asp

[Derek Ortt]

time to start watching closely as we are seeing consistency in the models

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



The 12z NOGAPS is also fairly strong.

I haven't seen a strong consensus of the global models in a long time as they are now with this.

[Derek Ortt]

last time we saw the models in this much of an agreement in the SW Carib was last October

The result was a major hurricane, Beta