A disturbing poster today at the AGU fall meeting

[f5]

did they forget Rita was one of the strongest hurricane to ever form in the gulf with an 895 mb pressure with 180 mph sustained winds.that kind of surge will level galveston it will make the infamous "Galveston" hurricane of 1900 look like a picnic

[Frank2]

I'd have to disagree, Derek - the traffic nightmare and needless deaths that resulted from Rita's evacuation order could have been avoided, had those in charge on the local and state level accepted the fact that only those already designated to be in danger of a storm surge, were those that actually needed to leave.

As Dr. Bob Sheets has often said, with today's populations as they are, not everyone is going to be able to evacuate, which means that only those in immediate danger of storm surge flooding are those required to leave - as Dr. Sheets also said - everyone else may find that the best thing they can do is to stay at home, and prepare the best they can.

As Dr. Steve Lyons has also said many times - there is a great difference between a Cat 2 and Cat 5, so, if a person lives outside of the storm surge area, staying for a Cat 2 is not an unreasonable thing, and, per Dr. Lyon's comment, those I spoke with at the HRD did not use the word "devastated" to describe Wilma's damage - instead, they said the damage was typical for a Cat 2 (power lines, signs, trees, roof tile damage, etc.) - as messy as it was, I'd have to agree. South Dade after Cat 4/5 Andrew, on the other hand, was devastated...

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think they did a breakdown of the regions. I wanted to talk to the lead author about this, but she wasn't at the poster during the hour I was in that poster area

[Derek Ortt]

Frank,

for Houston that is correct, those people never needed to leave

However, Galveston is a barrier island and Port Arthur is right on the coast. Those areas, I believe, would be under a mandatory evacuation, so those staying would be doing so foolishly

As for devastated, I use that word as meaning less than total destruction (I use the words complete destruction to describe Homestead, Punta Gorda, Mississippi, Plaquemines, etc), while devastated to regions like Beaumont, etc

[jeff]

This is really nothing new. It has been known for a long time that residents in SE TX will not leave for lower end hurricane events. The cat 3 for some reason (maybe because it is called a "major" hurricane) is many times the deciding factor. Mandatory evac for SE TX including Galveston is only issued for forecasted cat 3 or higher hurricanes, which means forecasting a cat 2 will get the evac wheels rolling from a planning stand point.

Of the 3.1 million who left for Rita over 60% were outside the defined surge zones. One would think a strong public education campaign may help with this problem, but when asked why people left the area who were outside the surge zones the response was that they did not want to be without power. Public attitudes change year to year and disaster to disaster and the deciding factor one year to leave may not be the same the next time the area is threatened. One must remember the last major evacuation of the Houston/Galveston area was in 1988 for hurricane Gilbert, which like Rita missed the area.

Additionally, population growth in the evac zones of Harris, Galveston and Brazoria counties which is currently at 650,000 is expected to top 1.2-1.5 million by 2025, and when combined with the shadow evac of inland residents you can see the future problems that lay ahead.

There is no quick and easy fix to any of this

[Frank2]

Very true - unfortunately, many were left very afraid after what happened in New Orleans (though, of course, that situation is unique unto itself), but, it's unfounded fear that often drives people (literally) to make bad decisions.

The nursing home bus fire was one example - you can bet that all those administrators could see, was the same thing happening to their patients, that happened to some nursing home patients in New Orleans - even though (from what I recall of that story) the nursing home they left behind in Houston, was not located in an area that would be affected by storm surge flooding - only to let fear get a grip on them, to the point that they sent their patients into a situation that would cause so much loss of life.

As you said, population growth along the coastal areas is becoming a serious problem, but, no one is willing to take a stand on how many can move to Orlando, or New Orleans, or Houston. When we moved to the suburban/rural parts of Miami 37 years ago, we didn't intend to conquer the world, but, to live in pre-existing housing, and, enjoy the natural environment. Too many today come to build and build, without any regard to the consequences - whether it be crowded highways during an emergency, or lack of green space in general.

Frank

[Ptarmigan]

Derek,

I'm curious as to the breakdown of responses from those 3 areas. Houston is in Harris County, which is one county removed from the Gulf and well above sea level. Most of the people who evacuated Houston for Rita would probably have been fine had they stayed and had Rita hit us as a Cat 2 or 3. No power for weeks, and probably trees poking through roofs, but not wiped out from storm surge. There were people evacuating who were over 100 miles inland and 80-100 ft above sea level for Rita.

Now Galveston and Port Arthur are a different story. Those people should leave for even a moderate TS unless the NHC can 100% guarantee that the moderate TS 3 days from landfall won't be a hurricane when it hits (and they cannot in almost all cases).

Which brings me to a point I've made here over and over. The decision to evacuate or not must be made 60-72 hours prior to landfall. We cannot predict intensity very well, so that TS in the gulf 3 days from landfall could be a Cat 3-4 when it hits. People in vulnerable coastal areas cannot wait to see how strong it'll really be when it hits. They have to leave 2-3 days before it hits, when no one knows the landfall intensity.

Too many people who were not in the storm surge area during Rita did not need to evacuate. The old saying is hide from the wind and run from the surge. The only reason people evacuate is because of storm surge and that is a killer.

[Derek Ortt]

it seems as if we need better education efforts, as people who did not need to evacuate did so, and people who are supposed to may not in the future (or in the case of the Florida Keys, never do)

The ONLY wind evacuations that are needed (unless it is know that an area will get cat 5 winds, which produces gusts at EF5 tornado intensity, which will produce a significant threat to life... and this may only have to be done once every 50 years or so, and probably not on the mainland, but more likely PR or VI and MAYBE SF) are for mobile homes and high rises where the effects of the wind then do pose a serious threat

[f5]

Derek,

I'm curious as to the breakdown of responses from those 3 areas. Houston is in Harris County, which is one county removed from the Gulf and well above sea level. Most of the people who evacuated Houston for Rita would probably have been fine had they stayed and had Rita hit us as a Cat 2 or 3. No power for weeks, and probably trees poking through roofs, but not wiped out from storm surge. There were people evacuating who were over 100 miles inland and 80-100 ft above sea level for Rita.

Now Galveston and Port Arthur are a different story. Those people should leave for even a moderate TS unless the NHC can 100% guarantee that the moderate TS 3 days from landfall won't be a hurricane when it hits (and they cannot in almost all cases).

Which brings me to a point I've made here over and over. The decision to evacuate or not must be made 60-72 hours prior to landfall. We cannot predict intensity very well, so that TS in the gulf 3 days from landfall could be a Cat 3-4 when it hits. People in vulnerable coastal areas cannot wait to see how strong it'll really be when it hits. They have to leave 2-3 days before it hits, when no one knows the landfall intensity.

Too many people who were not in the storm surge area during Rita did not need to evacuate. The old saying is hide from the wind and run from the surge. The only reason people evacuate is because of storm surge and that is a killer.

It was Katrina that drove the whole city to evacuate beacuse Rita was infact similar to the strength of Katrina which flatten southeast louisiana and the mississippi coast infact waveland was wiped off the map

[docjoe]

unfortunately I think some people just have to learn from first hand experience. I am in no way a weather expert, rather someone who finds weather interesting. I have read practically every "laymans" book I can find on TCs and even try on occasion to read through the scientific literature(which is way above my head). I have hit virtually every website. I have lived on the gulf coast or within just a couple of hours almost my entire life. Yet I found myself stunned at the damage after Ivan....even though my area had no sustained winds above Cat 1 level. Even though we are 12-15miles inland we had waterfront areas with 15+ feet of surge with small pockets of Katrina/Rita like damage. I was just amazed and flabbergasted by the damage. No amount of reading, watching video, pleas from officials etc can truly prepare you. Often times you have to see it first hand to truly grasp it. Needless to say I knew much more what to expect when Dennis hit our county as a Cat 3.

docjoe

[Ptarmigan]

It was Katrina that drove the whole city to evacuate beacuse Rita was infact similar to the strength of Katrina which flatten southeast louisiana and the mississippi coast infact waveland was wiped off the map

So true. The images of New Orleans and Gulfport getting leveled and flooded from Hurricane Katrina sure scared Southeast and East Texas. If it wasn't for Katrina, than less people would of evacuated.

[wxman57]

So true. The images of New Orleans and Gulfport getting leveled and flooded from Hurricane Katrina sure scared Southeast and East Texas. If it wasn't for Katrina, than less people would of evacuated.

And if it wasn't for Katrina, many would have died in SW Louisiana because they didn't evacuate.

[Ptarmigan]

And if it wasn't for Katrina, many would have died in SW Louisiana because they didn't evacuate.

True. It would of been worse than Audrey in 1957. Thankfully no one died in SW Louisiana, despite the severe damage. Most of the deaths were in Texas.

[MGC]

I think the Rita evacuations were a direct result of Katrina. At one time Rita was stronger than Katrina. People in SE Texas had been watching the Katrina disaster and now a monster, stronger than Katrina was forecast to make a direct hit! I don't blame them for being scared. I was worried to death as Katrina approached Mississippi. No telling how many residents of Houston have arrived there after Alicia and have never experienced a big hurricane. I'm only worried that many in the Houston area may now think they have been through a big one and won't leave for the next. Camille killed more in Mississippi in 2005 because no one thought Katrina could be worst than Camille......MGC

[KatDaddy]

wxman57 is right on target. You must evacuate early to get out of the Houston-Galveston Areas. The massive traffic jams will occur again with the next major hurricane threat. The second issue as wxman57 pointed out is the rapid intensification that can occur. Just imagine Charley having another 12 hours over the warm GOM and then plowing into the Houston-Galveston Areas. We would have had another Andrew but in a highly populated area. Even worse, you go to bed with 60MPH TS off the Upper TX Coast forecast to strengthen slowly and move onshore the next day. Most people would not give it a second look.......a little wind and some rain. However the next morning it has rapidly intensified into a CAT 3 and make landfall in the afternoon as a CAT 4. The people living in the Houston-Galveston Area are completely clueless. The only baseline for a hurricane was Alicia in 83. People forget that Alicia was an extremely small hurricane and brought gust to 100MPH. Just wait until winds are 120 or 130 gusting to 160MPH. Talk about surprised and scared people.

[Ptarmigan]

wxman57 is right on target. You must evacuate early to get out of the Houston-Galveston Areas. The massive traffic jams will occur again with the next major hurricane threat. The second issue as wxman57 pointed out is the rapid intensification that can occur. Just imagine Charley having another 12 hours over the warm GOM and then plowing into the Houston-Galveston Areas. We would have had another Andrew but in a highly populated area. Even worse, you go to bed with 60MPH TS off the Upper TX Coast forecast to strengthen slowly and move onshore the next day. Most people would not give it a second look.......a little wind and some rain. However the next morning it has rapidly intensified into a CAT 3 and make landfall in the afternoon as a CAT 4. The people living in the Houston-Galveston Area are completely clueless. The only baseline for a hurricane was Alicia in 83. People forget that Alicia was an extremely small hurricane and brought gust to 100MPH. Just wait until winds are 120 or 130 gusting to 160MPH. Talk about surprised and scared people.

That would be very bad. The damage would be extreme and many would die.

[hial2]

When I think of a strong hurricane hitting SFl, I think of the wind damage...and water.
Any Miami area that nature uses for drainage is being paved over to be used for new construction. The "boundaries" are being stretched so far west so fast, that they are paving over sleeping alligators..And even closer..there was a HUGE lake in South Miami @ Ludlam and Bird Road that was recently filled for a housing complex..there's nothing there now but asphalt..Back in 1999 we got in trouble with Irene, a 70 mph TS..Most of SFl was a pool for quite a while..
What do you think will happen now if we get hit with a slow moving,wet,strong cyclone?? We have no reliable sewer system..Where is the water going to go? How will the emergency vehicles travel??
The levees here are underneath us..and they wont give way..

[CrazyC83]

it seems as if we need better education efforts, as people who did not need to evacuate did so, and people who are supposed to may not in the future (or in the case of the Florida Keys, never do)

The ONLY wind evacuations that are needed (unless it is know that an area will get cat 5 winds, which produces gusts at EF5 tornado intensity, which will produce a significant threat to life... and this may only have to be done once every 50 years or so, and probably not on the mainland, but more likely PR or VI and MAYBE SF) are for mobile homes and high rises where the effects of the wind then do pose a serious threat

As well as weaker, less substantial structures that a Category 3 or 4 can destroy.

[CrazyC83]

wxman57 is right on target. You must evacuate early to get out of the Houston-Galveston Areas. The massive traffic jams will occur again with the next major hurricane threat. The second issue as wxman57 pointed out is the rapid intensification that can occur. Just imagine Charley having another 12 hours over the warm GOM and then plowing into the Houston-Galveston Areas. We would have had another Andrew but in a highly populated area. Even worse, you go to bed with 60MPH TS off the Upper TX Coast forecast to strengthen slowly and move onshore the next day. Most people would not give it a second look.......a little wind and some rain. However the next morning it has rapidly intensified into a CAT 3 and make landfall in the afternoon as a CAT 4. The people living in the Houston-Galveston Area are completely clueless. The only baseline for a hurricane was Alicia in 83. People forget that Alicia was an extremely small hurricane and brought gust to 100MPH. Just wait until winds are 120 or 130 gusting to 160MPH. Talk about surprised and scared people.

How about a storm intensifying at Wilma levels as it is making landfall? I mean a storm that people go to bed as a tropical storm or low-end Category 1 (say, 70-80 mph), wake up to a Category 5 - and then some (say 175-190 mph) at landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

the chances of Wilma type intensification in the Carib are very small. That rate has only been observed a few times in the last 100 years in the Atlantic.

I'd be more concerned about a Wilma intensification as it moved toward Florida. Expected to hit as a 2, it nearly became a 4. That is more likely, but the 1.5 category intensification could be severe