12P/Tropical Cyclone Nelson (E. Gulf of Carpentaria)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
I think the possibility of this developing is lower than having a democratic Iraq. The system is not very well-organized, poorly if you ask me, and it's getting very close to land which should inhibit further development. Nevertheless, the effects are going to be the same, locally heavy precipitation and some flooding.
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IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:27 am CST [7:57 am EST] Saturday 3 February 2007
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Alyangula in
the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola.
At 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 185 kilometres east southeast of Alyangula and 230 kilometres
northeast of Borroloola moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
The low is forecast to move southwest during today and may develop into a
tropical cyclone prior to crossing the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast
tonight.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Port Roper and the Queensland border during today. GALES may extend north to
Alyangula in the Northern Territory or east to Mornington Island in Queensland
if the system changes direction.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between Port Roper
and Mornington Island today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End and
Roper-McArthur District.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST ]:
. Centre near.... 14.7 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 9 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues from Alyangula in the Northern Territory
to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST ].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:27 am CST [7:57 am EST] Saturday 3 February 2007
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Alyangula in
the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola.
At 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 185 kilometres east southeast of Alyangula and 230 kilometres
northeast of Borroloola moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
The low is forecast to move southwest during today and may develop into a
tropical cyclone prior to crossing the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast
tonight.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Port Roper and the Queensland border during today. GALES may extend north to
Alyangula in the Northern Territory or east to Mornington Island in Queensland
if the system changes direction.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES may cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between Port Roper
and Mornington Island today.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End and
Roper-McArthur District.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST ]:
. Centre near.... 14.7 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 9 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues from Alyangula in the Northern Territory
to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Borroloola.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST ].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Coredesat
TCFA has been cancelled.
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 020300). THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, A 022033Z SSMI PASS, AND A 022025Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A
POORLY-DEFINED LLCC THAT IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST SUPPORT
THE EXISTENCE OF A LLCC, BUT PRESSURE AND WIND REPORTS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS INTENSIFYING. THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS UNDER
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS OF AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PROJECTED MOVEMENT
OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER.//
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 020300). THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, A 022033Z SSMI PASS, AND A 022025Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A
POORLY-DEFINED LLCC THAT IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST SUPPORT
THE EXISTENCE OF A LLCC, BUT PRESSURE AND WIND REPORTS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS INTENSIFYING. THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS UNDER
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS OF AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PROJECTED MOVEMENT
OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER.//
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Saturday 3 February 2007
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Alyangula
in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola
At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 185 kilometres southeast of Alyangula and 175 kilometres
northeast of Borroloola moving south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.
The low is forecast to move slowly southwest overnight towards the southern Gulf
of Carpentaria coast.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop on Monday if the low remains over water and develops into a
tropical cyclone.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises across the Top End,
increasing to widespread flooding in the Roper-McArthur and northern Barkly
Districts.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre near.............. 15.1 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 4 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Alyangula
in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST ].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Saturday 3 February 2007
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Alyangula
in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola
At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 185 kilometres southeast of Alyangula and 175 kilometres
northeast of Borroloola moving south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.
The low is forecast to move slowly southwest overnight towards the southern Gulf
of Carpentaria coast.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop on Monday if the low remains over water and develops into a
tropical cyclone.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises across the Top End,
increasing to widespread flooding in the Roper-McArthur and northern Barkly
Districts.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre near.............. 15.1 degrees South 137.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 4 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Alyangula
in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote
Eylandt and Borroloola
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST ].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Sunday 4 February 2007
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Port Roper in
the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Borroloola
At 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the Gulf of
Carpentaria coast, about 100 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 240
kilometres south southeast of Alyangula moving southwest at 7 kilometres per
hour.
The low is expected to remain over land tomorrow before moving east into the
southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop on Tuesday night if the low develops into a tropical cyclone.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises across the Top End,
increasing to widespread flooding in the Roper-McArthur and northern Barkly
Districts.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre near.............. 15.9 degrees South 137.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People from Port Roper in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in
Queensland, including Borroloola should listen for the next advice which will be
issued at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST ]
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Sunday 4 February 2007
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Port Roper in
the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Borroloola
At 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the Gulf of
Carpentaria coast, about 100 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 240
kilometres south southeast of Alyangula moving southwest at 7 kilometres per
hour.
The low is expected to remain over land tomorrow before moving east into the
southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop on Tuesday night if the low develops into a tropical cyclone.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises across the Top End,
increasing to widespread flooding in the Roper-McArthur and northern Barkly
Districts.
Details of the TROPICAL LOW at 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre near.............. 15.9 degrees South 137.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People from Port Roper in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in
Queensland, including Borroloola should listen for the next advice which will be
issued at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST ]
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:16S138E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2007
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low 995 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.8 S
138.2 E moving east southeast at 5 knots. The low could develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots expected to increase to 30/45 knots within 6 to 18
hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.
0600 UTC 06 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 15.9 S 139.2 E.
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.1 S 140.1 E.
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning issued by 0130 UTC 06 February 2007 by Weather BRISBANE
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Matt, your wish is almost a reality!!!!!
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
40:2:1:24:16S138E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1930 UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2007
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low 995 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.8 S
138.2 E moving east southeast at 5 knots. The low could develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots expected to increase to 30/45 knots within 6 to 18
hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.
0600 UTC 06 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 15.9 S 139.2 E.
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
1800 UTC 06 February: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.1 S 140.1 E.
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning issued by 0130 UTC 06 February 2007 by Weather BRISBANE
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Matt, your wish is almost a reality!!!!!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:39am on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Kowanyama.
A Cyclone WATCH extends from Kowanyama to Cape Keerweer.
At 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1 with central
pressure 992 hectopascals, was centred near latitude 15.8 south and longitude
139.0 east which is 95 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 270 kilometres
northwest of Karumba.
The cyclone is moving east-southeast at 20 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to continue moving east-southeast while
intensifying. It may cross the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA on Wednesday
afternoon.
GALES may develop on the coast between the Northern Territory border and
Kowanyama during today or overnight.
The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near low tide, however the associated
storm surge is expected to raise these tides close to the highest tide of the
year.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1, for 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST]
Central Pressure : 992 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 15.8 degrees south
: longitude 139.0 degrees east
: which is 95 kilometres north of Mornington Is
: and 270 kilometres northwest of Karumba
Recent Movement : east at 19 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between the Northern Territory Border and Cape Keerweer should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 11am. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST [10:30 am CST].
Nelson is here!!
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:39am on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Kowanyama.
A Cyclone WATCH extends from Kowanyama to Cape Keerweer.
At 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1 with central
pressure 992 hectopascals, was centred near latitude 15.8 south and longitude
139.0 east which is 95 kilometres north of Mornington Is and 270 kilometres
northwest of Karumba.
The cyclone is moving east-southeast at 20 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to continue moving east-southeast while
intensifying. It may cross the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA on Wednesday
afternoon.
GALES may develop on the coast between the Northern Territory border and
Kowanyama during today or overnight.
The cyclone is expected to cross the coast near low tide, however the associated
storm surge is expected to raise these tides close to the highest tide of the
year.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1, for 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST]
Central Pressure : 992 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 15.8 degrees south
: longitude 139.0 degrees east
: which is 95 kilometres north of Mornington Is
: and 270 kilometres northwest of Karumba
Recent Movement : east at 19 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between the Northern Territory Border and Cape Keerweer should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 11am. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST [10:30 am CST].
Nelson is here!!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:14am on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Mornington Island to Pormpuraaw.
A Cyclone WATCH has been cancelled between the Northern Territory border and
Morninton Island.
At 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1 with central
pressure 990 hectopascals, was centred near latitude 15.9 south and longitude
139.8 east which is 110 kilometres northeast of Mornington Is and 205 kilometres
north northwest of Karumba.
The cyclone is moving east at 20 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to move east-southeast while intensifying.
It may cross the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA on Wednesday morning.
GALES may develop on the coast between Mornington Island and Kowanyama during
today or overnight.
As the cyclone crosses the coast, large waves may produce minor flooding along
the foreshore between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1, for 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 15.9 degrees south
: longitude 139.8 degrees east
: which is 110 kilometres northeast of Mornington Is
: and 205 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
Recent Movement : east at 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Mornington Island and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 2 pm. If you are unsure about precautions to be
taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
Getting stronger but time is very limited for this cyclone!!!
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:14am on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Mornington Island to Pormpuraaw.
A Cyclone WATCH has been cancelled between the Northern Territory border and
Morninton Island.
At 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1 with central
pressure 990 hectopascals, was centred near latitude 15.9 south and longitude
139.8 east which is 110 kilometres northeast of Mornington Is and 205 kilometres
north northwest of Karumba.
The cyclone is moving east at 20 km/h.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to move east-southeast while intensifying.
It may cross the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA on Wednesday morning.
GALES may develop on the coast between Mornington Island and Kowanyama during
today or overnight.
As the cyclone crosses the coast, large waves may produce minor flooding along
the foreshore between Pormpuraaw and Gilbert River. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 1, for 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]
Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 15.9 degrees south
: longitude 139.8 degrees east
: which is 110 kilometres northeast of Mornington Is
: and 205 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
Recent Movement : east at 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Mornington Island and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 2 pm. If you are unsure about precautions to be
taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
Getting stronger but time is very limited for this cyclone!!!
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Up to Cat2.
IDQP0006
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Burketown to Pormpuraaw
are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:21pm on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
BURKETOWN to PORMPURAAW.
At 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central
pressure 985 hectopascals, was relocated near latitude 16.6 south and longitude
140.4 east which is 110 kilometres north northwest of Karumba and 190 kilometres
southwest of Kowanyama.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to resume its east-southeast motion while
intensifying up to landfall on the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA early on
Wednesday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with are likely to develop on the coast between Pormpuraaw and
Karumba tonight with gusts to 140km/h near the centre of the cyclone.
Coastal residents between Pormpuraaw and Karumba are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely
to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging
waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so
by the authorities.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST]
Central Pressure : 985 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.6 degrees south
: longitude 140.4 degrees east
: which is 110 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
: and 190 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama
Recent Movement : slowly south, expected to resume east southeast track
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Burketown and Pormpuraaw should complete preparations quickly and
be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST [10:30 pm CST].
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
IDQP0006
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Burketown to Pormpuraaw
are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:21pm on Tuesday the 6th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
BURKETOWN to PORMPURAAW.
At 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST] Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central
pressure 985 hectopascals, was relocated near latitude 16.6 south and longitude
140.4 east which is 110 kilometres north northwest of Karumba and 190 kilometres
southwest of Kowanyama.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to resume its east-southeast motion while
intensifying up to landfall on the coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA early on
Wednesday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with are likely to develop on the coast between Pormpuraaw and
Karumba tonight with gusts to 140km/h near the centre of the cyclone.
Coastal residents between Pormpuraaw and Karumba are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely
to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging
waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so
by the authorities.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST]
Central Pressure : 985 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.6 degrees south
: longitude 140.4 degrees east
: which is 110 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
: and 190 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama
Recent Movement : slowly south, expected to resume east southeast track
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Burketown and Pormpuraaw should complete preparations quickly and
be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST [10:30 pm CST].
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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IDQ20072
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1257 UTC 06/02/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Nelson
Data At: 1100 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 140.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (123 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.
Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1900 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1257 UTC 06/02/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Nelson
Data At: 1100 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 140.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (123 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
Code: Select all
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 06/2300: 16.7S 141.9E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 987
+24: 07/1100: 17.5S 144.0E: 050 (095): 025 (045): 997
+36: 07/2300: 18.4S 146.3E: 085 (155): 025 (045): 999
+48: 08/1100: 19.8S 148.3E: 095 (175): 030 (055): 997
REMARKS:
Radar not available. Deep convection has become much more active in the past 6 hours.Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.
Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1900 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:01am on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw.
At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central pressure 985
hectopascals, was centred near latitude 16.3 south and longitude 140.5 east
which is 135 kilometres north northwest of Karumba and 160 kilometres southwest
of Kowanyama.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is currently near stationary, but later this morning is
expected to move east-southeast while intensifying. It is expected to cross the
coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA later this morning morning.
GALES are likely to continue in areas between Pormpuraaw and Karumba this
morning, with DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.
Coastal residents between Pormpuraaw and Karumba are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise
steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and
flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 1:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 985 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.3 degrees south
: longitude 140.5 degrees east
: which is 135 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
: and 160 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama
Recent Movement : east about 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Pormpuraaw and Burketown should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST.
NELSON IS INLAND.
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:01am on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw.
At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central pressure 985
hectopascals, was centred near latitude 16.3 south and longitude 140.5 east
which is 135 kilometres north northwest of Karumba and 160 kilometres southwest
of Kowanyama.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is currently near stationary, but later this morning is
expected to move east-southeast while intensifying. It is expected to cross the
coast between KOWANYAMA and KARUMBA later this morning morning.
GALES are likely to continue in areas between Pormpuraaw and Karumba this
morning, with DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.
Coastal residents between Pormpuraaw and Karumba are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise
steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and
flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 1:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 985 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.3 degrees south
: longitude 140.5 degrees east
: which is 135 kilometres north northwest of Karumba
: and 160 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama
Recent Movement : east about 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING.
People between Pormpuraaw and Burketown should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST.
NELSON IS INLAND.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 40
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:49am on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Karumba
to Kowanyama, extending inland to Palmerville.
The Cyclone WARNING is cancelled between Pormpuraaw and Kowanyama.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for east coastal and island communities between
Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island.
At 7:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central pressure 983
hectopascals, was centred over land near latitude 16.7 south and longitude 141.8
east which is 135 kilometres northeast of Karumba and 425 kilometres west of
Cairns.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to continue moving inland in an
east-southeasterly direction today while gradually weakening. The system is
expected to move into the Coral Sea on Thursday where it will re-intensify.
GALES are currently being experienced about the coast and adjacent inland
between Kowanyama and Karumba. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are
occurring near the centre of the cyclone.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 7:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 983 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 37 kilometres of
: latitude 16.7 degrees south
: longitude 141.8 degrees east
: which is 135 kilometres northeast of Karumba
: and 425 kilometres west of Cairns
Recent Movement : east southeast about 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
People in the path of the cyclone between Karumba and Kowanyama and inland to
Palmerville should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the
destructive winds continue. Follow any directions from Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.
People between Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST.
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:49am on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Karumba
to Kowanyama, extending inland to Palmerville.
The Cyclone WARNING is cancelled between Pormpuraaw and Kowanyama.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for east coastal and island communities between
Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island.
At 7:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2 with central pressure 983
hectopascals, was centred over land near latitude 16.7 south and longitude 141.8
east which is 135 kilometres northeast of Karumba and 425 kilometres west of
Cairns.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson is expected to continue moving inland in an
east-southeasterly direction today while gradually weakening. The system is
expected to move into the Coral Sea on Thursday where it will re-intensify.
GALES are currently being experienced about the coast and adjacent inland
between Kowanyama and Karumba. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are
occurring near the centre of the cyclone.
Heavy rain is likely to produce flooding of low lying areas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nelson, Category 2, for 7:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 983 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 37 kilometres of
: latitude 16.7 degrees south
: longitude 141.8 degrees east
: which is 135 kilometres northeast of Karumba
: and 425 kilometres west of Cairns
Recent Movement : east southeast about 20 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
People in the path of the cyclone between Karumba and Kowanyama and inland to
Palmerville should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the
destructive winds continue. Follow any directions from Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.
People between Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:39pm on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities between Karumba and
Kowanyama has been CANCELLED.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for east coastal and island communities between
Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island [see below].
At 1:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nelson, with central pressure 995
hectopascals, was centred over land near latitude 16.4 south and longitude 142.3
east which is 195 kilometres northeast of Karumba and 375 kilometres west of
Cairns.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson has dissipated as a significant system over southwestern
Cape York Peninsula. No further advices will be issued for this system.
A cyclone watch remains in place for coastal and island communities between Cape
Tribulation and Hayman Island along the east coast, for a developing tropical
low over the western Coral Sea east of Cairns. For further information, please
refer to current advices for this system.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nelson, for 1:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 995 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.4 degrees south
: longitude 142.3 degrees east
: which is 195 kilometres northeast of Karumba
: and 375 kilometres west of Cairns
Recent Movement : east northeast about 8 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 75 kilometres per hour.
Last advisory.
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:39pm on Wednesday the 7th of February 2007
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities between Karumba and
Kowanyama has been CANCELLED.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for east coastal and island communities between
Cape Tribulation and Hayman Island [see below].
At 1:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nelson, with central pressure 995
hectopascals, was centred over land near latitude 16.4 south and longitude 142.3
east which is 195 kilometres northeast of Karumba and 375 kilometres west of
Cairns.
Tropical Cyclone Nelson has dissipated as a significant system over southwestern
Cape York Peninsula. No further advices will be issued for this system.
A cyclone watch remains in place for coastal and island communities between Cape
Tribulation and Hayman Island along the east coast, for a developing tropical
low over the western Coral Sea east of Cairns. For further information, please
refer to current advices for this system.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Nelson, for 1:00 pm EST
Central Pressure : 995 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 55 kilometres of
: latitude 16.4 degrees south
: longitude 142.3 degrees east
: which is 195 kilometres northeast of Karumba
: and 375 kilometres west of Cairns
Recent Movement : east northeast about 8 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 75 kilometres per hour.
Last advisory.
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