Which areas in U.S.will have more landfalls in 2007 season?

[Hurricaneman]

I said North Carolina, because of the frequency of hits there in La Nina seasons

[cajungal]

It all depends on the position of the Bermuda high at the start of Hurricane Season. Of course, Florida sticks out as sore thumb, so it is always the most likely state to get hit. La Nina usually brings hurricanes to the east coast, so perhaps the Carolinas may be threatned this year. I am just hoping that all the storms curve out to sea and nobody has to face the devestation of a Hurricane.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think Florida may see another year of landfalls, but I don't think we will see anything like 2004 or 2005. This year feels like it should be someone else's turn. Instead of the typical central gulf or Florida landfalls of the last 3 seasons, this year I tend to think that either Texas and Mexico and/or the carolinas and east coast will be targeted the most. I don't really have anything to back this up, but it just feels right that the pattern should shift a bit. I guess we will see. In a perfect world, we would continue to see more 2006-like years over the next few seasons, but I think that we were probably just lucky last year with the El nino. This year we probably will not be so lucky.

On a more scientific note (instead of just pure speculation), if we do look at the 9 last La Nina seasons, we can see where the storms went the most...

2000 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at2000.gif

1999 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1999.gif

1998 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1998.gif

1995 (end of season) = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1995.gif

1988 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1988.gif

1983 (end of season) = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1983.gif

1975 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1975.gif

1974 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1974.gif

1973 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1973.gif

Based on these 9 years alone, I think it is safe to say that it really could be anybody's game. However, there are a few trends I notice. Each of those years featured at least one western GOM storm, at least one east coast storm and at least one Florida storm. If the same is true in 2007, then it may end up that we all get hit at least once this year.

[gatorcane]

Extremeweather guy,

I actually think Florida had a much-needed break last year but this year will be a different story. We are in a pattern like the 1940s again where FL was hit nearly every other year continuously. I have no scientific backup for this reasoning its just my opinion.

[pojo]

No areas should be wished upon for a Hurricane Landfall. Millions of people evacuating, Homes destroyed. Lives Lost.

Areas of the GOM are still recovering... not to mention the areas of Florida that were pummelled in 2004. These areas definitely do not need another Hurricane.

Shannon

[cycloneye]

No areas should be wished upon for a Hurricane Landfall. Millions of people evacuating, Homes destroyed. Lives Lost.

Areas of the GOM are still recovering... not to mention the areas of Florida that were pummelled in 2004. These areas definitely do not need another Hurricane.

Shannon

Definitly a good message as we dont want to see a repeat of 2004-2005 in the Gulf.But all the residents have to be prepared for any threats that may occur during the 2007 season,hopefully none occurs.


I haved recieved a few private messages in the past few days asking me when the forecast poll will be up.The official storm2k poll will start on April 1 so get ready to post your numbers that you think will be the ones the 2007 season will have.

[kba981]

No areas should be wished upon for a Hurricane Landfall. Millions of people evacuating, Homes destroyed. Lives Lost.

Areas of the GOM are still recovering... not to mention the areas of Florida that were pummelled in 2004. These areas definitely do not need another Hurricane.

Shannon

Agree 100 % We dont need anymore I live in palm beach county. they still are houses with blue tarp roofs

[SETXweatherwatcher]

I'm with you cajungal, don't want to see anything like Rita ever again, but we take our chances living this close to the coast. I have only been back in my house for 9 months. I for one, am wishing for a season exactly like last year, even though some consider it a "bust".

[canegrl04]

I voted Florida east and west coast.Its been about 3 years since Florida caught some action.Its my hunch that 2007 is their year

[HURAKAN]

I'm really hesitant to predict given how badly I busted last year ...

Jan,the most experts in the field were wrong last year so you being wrong is not a big deal.

Sometimes tt's good to be wrong in a good way!?!?!

Everyone's predictions were in someway influenced by the 2005 season.

[hawkeh]

West and East coast of Florida for sure

[Grease Monkey]

I'd say somewhere in the Mid-North U.S area. It seems they're at least a couple of million years overdue.

[hial2]

I voted Florida east and west coast.Its been about 3 years since Florida caught some action.Its my hunch that 2007 is their year

Ah, Katrina and Wilma in 2005? Did you forget?? Florida CANNOT handle another cane this season!!

[Steve]

Hahahahahahaha. The annual, "where do you live in the hurricane zones?" poll!



FWIW, I didn't vote. I have no idea and haven't even begun to search yet for clues.

[Opal storm]

If this strong SE ridge stays in place through the summer,I would say S FL and the western Gulf coast (Texas/Mexico) would be at greatest risk.We still have 2 months so this pattern could change.

[Ivanhater]

If this strong SE ridge stays in place through the summer,I would say S FL and the western Gulf coast (Texas/Mexico) would be at greatest risk.We still have 2 months so this pattern could change.

ya....talk about strong ridging.....highs near 90 today and the high isnt let any rain come our way

[docjoe]

I voted Florida east and west coast.Its been about 3 years since Florida caught some action.Its my hunch that 2007 is their year

Ah, Katrina and Wilma in 2005? Did you forget?? Florida CANNOT handle another cane this season!!

dont forget Dennis either

docjoe

[JonathanBelles]

We need another Alberto for the rain.

[meteorologyman]

If this strong SE ridge stays in place through the summer,I would say S FL and the western Gulf coast (Texas/Mexico) would be at greatest risk.We still have 2 months so this pattern could change.

ya....talk about strong ridging.....highs near 90 today and the high isnt let any rain come our way

I agree with you guys that's why I posted Florida for threat about a month ago, and have a bad feeling that this is how the Azore High would like to spend its time during Summer and Fall, It's probably going through hybernation getting splashed with water (by lows) here and there for wake up call lol. (just trying to add some humor) Though I also think that Texas La, MS, AL is also in trouble though I hope I'm wrong

[SETXweatherwatcher]

No, no, no - no TX or LA we have had our fill for a while - Let's make them all fish storms again and no landfalls. That's my vote.