Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Favio (14S) Landfall

[Chacor]

I wonder if South Africa need to start preparing for a possible severe TS.

... or not. 18Z says TD near southern tip of Madagascar:

WTIO30 FMEE 161825

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/9/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/16 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9S / 57.5E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 25.7S/52.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2S/50.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 26.5S/48.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.3S/46.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.0S/45.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO FAVIO HAS BECOME FLUCTUATING FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS, AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION
IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED LLCC (SSMI 16/1425Z, TRMM
16/1500Z, SSMIS 16/1620Z). QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM
WHICH WINDS REACH 40
KT IN THE SOUTH, BUT ONLY 20 KT IN THE NORTH.FAVIO KEEPS ON TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEYOND 48 HOURS,
THANKS TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN TRACK WESTWARDS AS
THE SUBTROPIC
AL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE MINIMAL STAGE OF STORM THEN WEAKEN BEYOND 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAVIO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 990 HPA.
POSITION LE 16 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 23.9 SUD / 57.5 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 335 KM AU SUD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 24 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 25.7S/52.8E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26.5S/48.5E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 26S/45.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE DEMAIN MATIN A 04H30


Going down!!!

[P.K.]

990hPa, 45kts. An upgrade is forecast in 72 hours.

[HURAKAN]

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAVIO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 17 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 26.1 SUD / 52.0 EST
(VINGT-SIX DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 630 KM AU SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 20 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 26.8S/47.8E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26.5S/43.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.2S/41.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN A 04H30



Becoming better organized with a stronger CDO developing!!!

[Coredesat]

Tiny little thing.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to make a comeback!!!

[Chacor]

Forte tempête tropicale Favio.

[P.K.]

Yes up to 55kts now. How has Mozambique done historically when hit by tropical cyclones? The last forecast point here is a 70kt TC.

[P.K.]

For a couple of days time if Severe Tropical Storm Favio continues to head towards Mozambique the Mozambique Met Office page is at http://www.inam.gov.mz/. The radar and satellite pages are under "Previsão do Tempo" and then "Satélite e Radar."

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better organized!!!

[KWT]

Yes it does look better then in previous times, nice lump of convection now, esp on that SE side with some decent looking convection popping up overland (I'd guess being helped by the moist outflow, I'll take it that is the outflow, not so good at these S.hemisphere systems!)

Looks decnt enough, I'd guess probably upto 60kts right now given the convective coverage has grown and it has kept some rather decent strong convection near the core, may not actually be that far from 65kts if it can keep developing as it is.

[P.K.]

Dvorak estimates at 2030 GMT ranged from 3.0 to 3.5 so I think 60kts is a little high.

Might be an idea to move that second satellite image to Imageshack or something like that as their site is slow enough without people hotlinking images.

[HURAKAN]

Might be an idea to move that second satellite image to Imageshack or something like that as their site is slow enough without people hotlinking images.

Before posting it I though about it, but the reason of posting it was because it updates regularly.

[P.K.]

Fair enough. I'm just hoping the site doesn't go down if it does head that way as the radar looks useful.

What do I know despite those Dvorak estimates it is now 60kts with a centre pressure of 970hPa. TC status forecast within 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Eye developing.

[HurricaneBill]

Yes up to 55kts now. How has Mozambique done historically when hit by tropical cyclones?

Not good, unfortunately. Mozambique has a history of cyclone disasters.

1971 Cyclone Felicie (crossed Madagascar 4 times! At one point, was offshore of Mozambique and contributed to dead;y floods. Hundreds of lives lost.)

1978 Cyclone Angele (at least 4 dead in Mozambique)

1984 Cyclone Domoina (killed at least 109 in Mozambique and caused at least $75m in damage. Disastrous floods also in South Africa and Swaziland)

1988 Cyclone Filao (killed at least 100 in Mozambique)

1994 Cyclone Nadia (killed at least 240 in Mozambique)

1996 Cyclone Bonita (killed at least 11 in Mozambique and caused $14.5m in damage)

1997 Cyclone Lisette (killed at least 87 in Mozambique)

2000 Cyclone Eline (contributed to flooding that killed over 1000 in Mozambique)

2000 Cyclone Gloria (see above)

2000 Cyclone Hudah (see above)

2003 Cyclone Delfina (killed at least 58 in Mozambique and caused $3.5m in damage)

2003 Cyclone Japhet (killed at least 11 in Mozambique)

[HurricaneBill]

Usually flooding is the main threat from TCs hitting Mozambique.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Now a 970 hPa cyclone tropical.

[HURAKAN]

BECOMING QUITE A BEAUTY!!!