Reunion: TC Gamede (15S); World Rainfall records established

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, from 1200:

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

1ST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1610 HOURS ON 22 FEBRUARY 2007.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAMEDE WAS CENTERED AT 1600 HOURS WITHIN 50
KM RADIUS OF LATITUDE 14.6 DEGRES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 63.6 DEGREES
EAST, AT ABOUT 880 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.
GAMEDE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS MOVING AT A SPEED OF 30 KM/HOUR
TOWARDS THE WEST- SOUTH- WEST.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY GAMEDE IS APPROACHING MAURITIUS AND IS NOW A
POTENTIAL THREAT.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN, MORE FREQUENT OVER
HIGH GROUNDS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGHTEN WITH A MEAN OF 40 KM/HOUR AND GUSTS
OF 80 KM/HOUR.

SEA WILL BE ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE AT SEA AND TO TAKE PRELIMINARY
PRECAUTIONS.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2210 HOURS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.=

[Chacor]

And the 18Z one:

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

2ND CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 2210 HOURS ON 22 FEBRUARY 2007.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAMEDE WAS CENTERED AT 2200 HOURS WITHIN 50
KM RADIUS OF LATITUDE 15.0 DEGRES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 62.5 DEGREES
EAST, AT ABOUT 750 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.

GAMEDE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A SPEED OF 30 KM/HOUR TOWARDS THE
WEST- SOUTH- WEST.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY GAMEDE IS APPROACHING MAURITIUS AND IS A
POTENTIAL THREAT.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, MODERATE AT
TIMES, MORE FREQUENT OVER HIGH GROUNDS.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A MEAN OF 40 KM/HOUR AND GUSTS
OF 80 KM/HOUR.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE AT SEA AND TO TAKE PRELIMINARY
PRECAUTIONS.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0410 HOURS TOMORROW MORNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.=

[P.K.]

Rather large 30kt radii for this,

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

171
WTIO30 FMEE 230054 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 62.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 15.9S/60.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 16.3S/58.4E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 16.9S/56.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 17.5S/55.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
60H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 17.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
72H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 18.4S/52.9E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
"GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD BANDING EYE STRUCTURE. IT IS INTENSIFYING
VERY GRADUALLY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING. TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.


A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

3RD CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 0410 HOURS ON 23 FEBRUARY 2007.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAMEDE WAS CENTERED AT 0400 HOURS WITHIN 50
KM RADIUS OF LATITUDE 15.3 DEGRES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 61.6 DEGREES
EAST, AT ABOUT 660 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.

GAMEDE IS NOW MOVING AT A SPEED OF 20 KM/HOUR TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTH- WEST.
ON THIS TRAJECTORY GAMEDE CONTINUES TO APPROACH MAURITIUS AND HAS
BECOME A THREAT.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, MODERATE AT
TIMES, MORE FREQUENT OVER HIGH GROUNDS.

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A MEAN OF 50 KM/HOUR
AND GUSTS OF 100 KM/HOUR.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1010 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.=

[Chacor]

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

4TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1010 HOURS ON 23 FEBRUARY 2007.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAMEDE HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AT 1000 HOURS IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 50 KM RADIUS OF
LATITUDE 16.1 DEGRES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 60.7 DEGREES EAST, AT
ABOUT 550 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.

GAMEDE IS MOVING AT A SPEED OF 20 KM/HOUR TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
WEST.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY GAMEDE CONTINUES TO APPROACH MAURITIUS AND HAS
BECOME A THREAT.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, MODERATE AT
TIMES, MORE FREQUENT OVER HIGH GROUNDS.

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 90 KM/H WILL STRENGTHEN
TO REACH 100 KM/H.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1610 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 2 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.=

WTIO21 FMEE 230613
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 012/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 23/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (GAMEDE) 966 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1S /
60.6E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
JUSQU
'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.

OURAGAN 65/ 70 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
TEMPETE 50/60KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN
AUTOUR
DU CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 100
MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 220 MN
AUTOUR
DU CENTRE.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 23/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
17.1S / 58.5E, VENT MAX = 75 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.
A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
17.7S / 56.7E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
"GAMEDE" S'INTENSIFIE TRES GRADUELLEMENT, C'EST UN SYSTEME TRES VASTE
AVEC DES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS FORTS IMPORTANTES. BENEFICIANT DE
CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES, "GAMEDE" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE DIRECTION GENERALE OUEST-SUD-OUEST.=

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Météo-France

(Heh, slight change to that disclaimer to change "NWS/NHC" )

Okay, so I've been looking at the cyclonephase diagrams for Gamede, and I'm getting a bit scared.

Cyclonephase never has a good grip on pressure (usually far too high, see their image for Favio).

However, I'm slightly concerned - their image for Gamede goes below 950 hPa.

I'm thinking that this may well be the strongest storm of the season here.

Vigilance cyclonique en cours a la Réunion - yellow alert currently in place for Réunion, and I think they may need a red alert.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to have a lot of dry air, which is making it very hard to form a eyewall. In has slowed development. But it is looking better over the last 12 hours. I say it gets down to be a major.

[Meso]

Wow this storm looks huge..Our local synoptic charts having it heading SSW though :S Which is different to other tracks I`ve seen... Madagascar might really get a beating with this

[P.K.]

Up to 110kts in the forecast period now. Yes that looks rather strong in that cyclone phase diagram. Note that 960hPa was measured at St Brandon 2 1/2 hours ago.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 59.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 17.0S/58.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 17.7S/56.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 18.9S/53.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 19.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 19.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS FLUTUATING AND
THIS DVORAK ANALYSIS IS AN AVERAGE OF THIS FLUCTUATIONS.
"GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE WITH MSLP PROBABLY LOWER THAN
USUALLY WIND-PRESSURE RELATION IN THE SWIO (THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY 960
HPA IN ST-BRANDON AT 1100UTC WHEN THE STATION WAS IN THE EYE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT).
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY
EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
1700 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
1700 HOURS.

5TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1630 HOURS ON 23 FEBRUARY 2007.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY AND AT 1600 HOURS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 KM RADIUS OF
LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 59.2 DEGREES EAST, THAT
IS AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 440 KM TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST OF
MAURITIUS.

IT WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 20
KM/H. ON THIS TRAJECTORY CYCLONIC CONDITIONS, THAT IS, GUSTS OF THE ORDER
OF 120 KM/H MAY BE EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FURTHERMORE,
ANY RECURVATURE IN ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH WILL BRING ITS
CENTRE CLOSER TO MAURITIUS. GAMEDE REMAINS A THREAT TO MAURITIUS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
23 FEBRUARY 2007 AT 1700 HOURS.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO COMPLETE ALL PRECAUTIONS.

ACTIVE CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE WILL
INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT MAINLY TO THE
NORTH, EAST AND OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS.

EASTERLY GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 100 KM/H WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO
REACH 120 KM/H BY TOMORROW MORNING.

SEAS WILL BE HIGH.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE DURING ITS
PASSAGE AT SAINT BRANDON:

DIAMETER OF CENTRAL CALM AREA: 50 KM

CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HECTOPASCALS.

MEAN WIND : 125
KM/H.

MAXIMUM GUST : 180 KM/H.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1910 HRS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS=

Mauritius now issuing 3-hourly bulletins.

[Crostorm]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
1700 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
1700 HOURS.

5TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1630 HOURS ON 23 FEBRUARY 2007.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY AND AT 1600 HOURS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 KM RADIUS OF
LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 59.2 DEGREES EAST, THAT
IS AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 440 KM TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST OF
MAURITIUS.

IT WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 20
KM/H. ON THIS TRAJECTORY CYCLONIC CONDITIONS, THAT IS, GUSTS OF THE ORDER
OF 120 KM/H MAY BE EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FURTHERMORE,
ANY RECURVATURE IN ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH WILL BRING ITS
CENTRE CLOSER TO MAURITIUS. GAMEDE REMAINS A THREAT TO MAURITIUS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM
23 FEBRUARY 2007 AT 1700 HOURS.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO COMPLETE ALL PRECAUTIONS.

ACTIVE CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE WILL
INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT MAINLY TO THE
NORTH, EAST AND OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS.

EASTERLY GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 100 KM/H WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO
REACH 120 KM/H BY TOMORROW MORNING.

SEAS WILL BE HIGH.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMEDE DURING ITS
PASSAGE AT SAINT BRANDON:

DIAMETER OF CENTRAL CALM AREA: 50 KM

CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HECTOPASCALS.

MEAN WIND : 125
KM/H.

MAXIMUM GUST : 180 KM/H.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1910 HRS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS AS FROM 23
FEBRUARY AT 1700 HOURS=

Mauritius now issuing 3-hourly bulletins.

Can you please give me the link from that buletin.Thanks

[P.K.]

http://metservice.intnet.mu/wbulmrue.htm

That is interesting, gives a lower measured centre pressure than is mentioned in the above RSMC La Reunion update.

[Crostorm]

Thanks a lot P.K.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storm!!! It seems Madagascar has to start paying attention very closely to Gamede.

[HURAKAN]

There is nothing more important than family!!!

[Chacor]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

7TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 2210 HOURS ON 23 FEBRUARY 2007.

AT 2200 HOURS TROPICAL CYCLONE 'GAMEDE' WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 KM
RADIUS OF LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 58.6 DEGREES
EAST, THAT IS AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 380 KM TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST
OF MAURITIUS.

IT WILL MOVE AT A REDUCED SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KM/H IN A GENERAL WEST
SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY CYCLONIC CONDITIONS, THAT IS, GUSTS OF THE ORDER
OF 120 KM/H MAY BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND ANY RECURVATURE IN ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH WILL BRING ITS CENTRE CLOSER TO
MAURITIUS. 'GAMEDE' REMAINS A THREAT TO MAURITIUS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MAINTAIN ALL PRECAUTIONS.

ACTIVE CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 'GAMEDE' WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS WITH

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH, EAST AND OVER THE
HIGH GROUNDS.

EASTERLY GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 100 KM/H WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TO
REACH 120 KM/H BY TOMORROW.

SEAS WILL BE HIGH.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0410 HRS TOMORROW MORNING.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS .
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 REMAINS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS .=

WTIO22 FMEE 231814
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2007
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 956 HPA
POSITION: 16.7S / 58.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN 20
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 220 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
17.4S / 56.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2007/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
17.9S / 55.0E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"GAMEDE" IS INTENSIFYING VERY GRADUALLY, IT IS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM
WITH
IMPORTANT MAXIMUM WINDS EXTENSIONS.
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.=

[P.K.]

I wonder if Mauritius gave actual obs (Given 125km/h and 180km/h are both to the nearest 5km/h and the obs I've found for there are now higher than 90km/h sustained but that was several hours before and after the eye) or just the strength they saw the system as given this in the latest la Reunion update.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-
"GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT LESS
STRONG THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR A SMALLER SYSTEM (SO, STRONG WINDS EXTENDS
VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER, BUT NEAR THE CENTER, WINDS ARE LESS STRONG THAN
THEY WOULD BE FOR SUCH A MINIMAL PRESSURE... THIS FACT HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY ST-BRA
NDON DATA, IN THE EYE AT 12UTC, XHERE MSLP WAS AT 957HPA, BUT MAX 10MIN
WINDS HASN'T BEEN STRONGER THAN 50KT).

MSLP PROBABLY LOWER THAN USUALLY WIND-PRESSURE RELATION IN THE SWIO (THIS
FACT IS CONFIRMED BY 960 HPA IN ST-BRANDON AT 1100UTC WHEN THE STATION
WAS IN THE EYE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT).
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY
EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
BETWWEEN 48 AND 72 H, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ANYMORE,
SOME MAKING IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND OTHER CURVE SOUTHWARDS.

[HURAKAN]

Looking more potent by the hour!!!