Australia: TC Jacob: Landfall has occurred

[HURAKAN]

ACTIVE DAY IN THE TROPICS!!!

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 55 knots.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 2023UTC 7 MARCH 2007

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1900 UTC Tropical Cyclone Jacob located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal nine south [12.9S]
longitude one hundred and six decimal two east [106.2E]
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 964 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 60 knots near the centre.

Within 25 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 48 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant:
winds above 34 knots with rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0700 UTC 08 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 13.0 south 105.8 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots.
At 1900 UTC 08 March: Within 120 nautical miles of 13.2 south 106.7 east
Central pressure 955 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots.

Next warning issued by 0200 UTC 08 March 2007.


WEATHER PERTH



The little storm that could!!!

[P.K.]

Indonesia doesn't start warning on tropical cyclones in its waters until next year, right?

I've seen they are also on the warning map on the BoM page but are forming their own TCWC then?

Just upgraded to a cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:45 am WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Updated to include FESA YELLOW ALERT for people on Christmas Island.

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 3 cyclone is current for Christmas Island.

At 7:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be
275 kilometres south of Christmas Is and
and moving west at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has moved west overnight but is expected to slow down and
re-curve to the southeast tonight, though there remains a high uncertainty in
future movement.

The cyclone may move slightly closer to Christmas Island where gales with gusts
to 90 kilometres an hour may develop later today, but the intense core system is
expected to stay to the south of the island. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are
likely today which may result in localised flooding. A heavy northwest swell is
likely to affect the island despite the motion of the cyclone.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob at 7:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 37 kilometres of
latitude 12.9 south longitude 105.6 east
Recent movement : west at 19 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 956 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
YELLOW ALERT: People on Christmas Island.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am WDT Thursday 8 March.


This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

__________________________________________________________________

Now Jacob and George are equals in intensity.

[P.K.]

Ok I've done a bit of searching and yes it appears TCWC Jakarta may come into operation at some point.

PS - Why is the reply form now only using half the window??

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0200UTC 8 MARCH 2007

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0100 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal six east [105.6E]
Recent movement : west southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 70 knots
Central pressure: 964 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant.


FORECAST
Sustained winds to 70 knots near the centre.

Within 35 nautical miles of centre :
winds above 48 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to 120 nautical miles in the
northwestern quadrant:
winds above 34 knots with rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1300 UTC 08 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 13.3 south 105.9 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots.
At 0100 UTC 09 March: Within 110 nautical miles of 14.1 south 107.7 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots.

Next warning issued by 0800 UTC 08 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

category three yes that is very powerful- it's amazing how these indian ocean storms are getting so strong!

[HurricaneBill]

Tropical cyclones can have an impact on Indonesia, especially the rain.

In 1973, a midget cyclone similar in size to Tracy, hit the Flores Islands. Because it was so small, no warnings or advisories were issued on it. However, it had 1-min sustained winds of 110KT. More than 1600 people lost their lives, most on ships caught in the cyclone's path.

In December 1971, Cyclone Sally actually hit Indonesia. JTWC had Sally with 1-min sustained winds of 65KT just offshore of one of Indonesia's islands. JTWC then had Sally fluctuating between TD and TS strength while moving south and eventually hitting Australia with 1-min sustained winds of 25KT.

BoM's track was much different, however. When JTWC had Sally with 1-min winds of 65KT, BoM had Sally with 1-min winds of 20KT. When JTWC had Sally fluctuating between TD and TS strenngth, BoM had Sally steadily strengthening to 1-min winds of 100KT, followed by gradual weakening. Finally, when JTWC had Sally landfalling on Australia with 1-min winds of 25KT, BoM had Sally landfalling with 1-min winds of 80KT!

In 2000, Cyclone Sam resulted in the sinking of an Indonesian ferry, drowning all 167 on board.

In 2003, the tropical low that would eventually become Cyclone Inigo brought heavy rains to Indonesia, resulting in 66 deaths.

In 2006, East Timor was affected by Cyclone Daryl.

[AussieMark]

I will always go by what BOM say over what JTWC say

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 11:00 am WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 3 cyclone is current for Christmas Island.

At 10:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be
285 kilometres south of Christmas Is and
and moving west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has moved west overnight but is expected to slow down and
re-curve to the southeast tonight, though there remains a high uncertainty in
future movement.

The cyclone may move slightly closer to Christmas Island where gales with gusts
to 90 kilometres an hour may develop later today, but the intense core system is
expected to stay to the south of the island. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are
likely today which may result in localised flooding. A heavy northwest swell is
likely to affect the island despite the motion of the cyclone.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob at 10:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 37 kilometres of
latitude 13.0 south longitude 105.6 east
Recent movement : west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 964 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 185 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
YELLOW ALERT: People on Christmas Island should be taking action in preparation
for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm WDT Thursday 08 March.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

____________________________________________________________________________________

Jacob begins to weaken and satellite images don't lie.

[HurricaneBill]

What is the population of Christmas Island?

[Crostorm]

1,493 (July 2006 est.)

[Crostorm]

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 4:35 pm WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for Christmas Island.
At 4:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be
250 kilometres south of Christmas Is and was slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has been slow moving during the past few hours. It is
expected to re-curve to the southeast tonight. There still remains a high degree
of uncertainty in future movement.

The cyclone may still move slightly closer to Christmas Island where gales with
gusts to 90 kilometres an hour may develop tonight, but the intense core of the
system is expected to stay to the south of the island. Thunderstorms with heavy
rain are likely tonight which may result in localised flooding. A heavy
northwest swell is likely to affect the island despite the motion of the
cyclone.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Jacob at 4:00 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 37 kilometres of
latitude 12.7 south longitude 105.8 east
Recent movement : slow moving
Central Pressure : 968 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 155 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts.
YELLOW ALERT: People on Christmas Island should be taking action in preparation
for the cyclone's impact.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm WDT Thursday 08 March.


This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.

[HURAKAN]

Western Australia, after George, watch out for Jacob!!!



Continues to become better organized!

NRL: 50 knots.

[CrazyC83]

I'm no fan of the Australian scale. They call that a Category 2 cyclone when to us it is a high-end tropical storm. Gusts are almost impossible to measure accurately as well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm no fan of the Australian scale. They call that a Category 2 cyclone when to us it is a high-end tropical storm. Gusts are almost impossible to measure accurately as well.

I agree totally they focus on tropical storms to cat2 like storms, then forget anything over 100 knots. Maybe there cyclones are not as strong, so they think they have no use for anything like Charley,Andrew,Ivan,Mitch,Wilma,Katrina,Hugo, like storms ect. But its there system. In yes some of there storms do get that powerful like Fay or Tracy. Monica, Ingrid.

[HURAKAN]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... tropio.gif

NOGAPS takes Jacob to make landfall in three days in NW Australia.

[P.K.]

I'm no fan of the Australian scale. They call that a Category 2 cyclone when to us it is a high-end tropical storm. Gusts are almost impossible to measure accurately as well.

I agree totally they focus on tropical storms to cat2 like storms, then forget anything over 100 knots. Maybe there cyclones are not as strong, so they think they have no use for anything like Charley,Andrew,Ivan,Mitch,Wilma,Katrina,Hugo, like storms ect. But its there system. In yes some of there storms do get that powerful like Fay or Tracy. Monica, Ingrid.

Not at all. If you have too many points on the scale people will go "well it is only a cat 2 (SS scale) I don't need to worry" which obviously is wrong. TCs are just as strong in this basin as they are in other basins. I must admit to being a fan as it were of the Aus TC scale.