** Will 2007 Hurricane Season Be A Bust Like 2006 Was**

#21 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Mar 05, 2007 2:11 pm

jason0509 wrote:Something that nobody has mentioned thus far,

What are the background pressures like this year? If they are higher the way they were in 2006, that tells us something. If lower like in 2005, that tells us something as well.

That is a good point Jason. We all s=hould remember that from the 2005 season when they were so low.

sunny · #22 Postby **sunny** » Mon Mar 05, 2007 2:27 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I predict 2007 will be more active than 2006 for sure. I predict 12 to 15 storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 3 to 4 major hurricanes. I found that La Nina usually mean more active season, but not much as neutral. However, there are more major hurricanes to develop.

As long as they are all fish storms, fine by me........

Personally I don't think the 2006 season was a bust, there were five hurricanes (2 major) and four tropical storms.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #23 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Mar 05, 2007 2:32 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's?

Nothing can withstand the water.

However, there are SOME steps to protect against the wind, but even those will not prevent total destruction once you get into the cat 3 and higher wind regimes. Re-enforced concrete should be the standard code on the hurricane coast, IMO, much like in Cayman. And please get rid of glass high rises (MIAMI AND LAUDERDALE, especially)

We have those strict codes, Derek. We do not have any real high rise buildings here, we only had barges with windows. Some of the buildings on the water were reinforced concrete and did not get swept inland, only flooded the lower floors.

Unfortunately, you still see too many homes along the coast made of wood with limited concrete re-enforcement. As Derek mentioned, building codes in places like Cayman as well as other locations in the Caribbean and in the Western Pacific have more strict codes that insist concrete re-enforcement.

Ptarmigan · #24 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Mar 05, 2007 2:36 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
That is a good point Jason. We all s=hould remember that from the 2005 season when they were so low.

One place to look for ambient pressure is the North Atlantic Oscillation, better known as Arctic Oscillation. Generally speaking, negative NAO favors more tropical storms and hurricanes, while positive NAO is less favorable. 2005 was negative NAO.

#25 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 9:37 am

If La Nina develops, is there a typical position of the Bermuda High during this event?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #26 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:02 pm

If La Nina fully manifests itself, we are likely to see a very active season. SSTs are already anomalously high, and I don't see any major cold fronts moving into the GOM, Caribbean, or Atlantic any time soon.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #27 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:05 pm

I know that ssts are just one factor but I thought I should post this anyways:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

HurricaneHunter914 · #28 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:48 pm

The Caribbean usually has SSTs warm enough to generate major hurricanes all year long. The good thing is that dry air like this stops hurricanes from forming during the off season.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Lindaloo · #29 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:16 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's?

Nothing can withstand the water.

However, there are SOME steps to protect against the wind, but even those will not prevent total destruction once you get into the cat 3 and higher wind regimes. Re-enforced concrete should be the standard code on the hurricane coast, IMO, much like in Cayman. And please get rid of glass high rises (MIAMI AND LAUDERDALE, especially)

We have those strict codes, Derek. We do not have any real high rise buildings here, we only had barges with windows. Some of the buildings on the water were reinforced concrete and did not get swept inland, only flooded the lower floors.

Unfortunately, you still see too many homes along the coast made of wood with limited concrete re-enforcement. As Derek mentioned, building codes in places like Cayman as well as other locations in the Caribbean and in the Western Pacific have more strict codes that insist concrete re-enforcement.

I think you just made my point. **shrugs**

Lifesgud2 · #30 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:56 pm

I appreciate all of your posts. We shall wait and see. Only about 75 days left until "THE SEASON"

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 10:54 pm

its tough to say what 2007 will hold. I do not think it will be as much of a bust as 2006 as the amount of the 2006 bust was about as "dramatic" as you can get.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #32 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 11:17 pm

2007 will likely be much more active than 2006 although it's too early to tell if it may be as bad as 2005.
With Neutral-La Nina conditions in place, low windshear is likely, and with sst anomalies where they are
2007 is going to be able to produce some potentially potent storms.

#33 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:11 am

I agree with Tampa Bay Hurricane. I HIGHLY doubt that we will see a bust season but also not as busy as 2005 either. Im gonna hold off on predictions right now until closer to hurricane season. On a side note im already making prelimary checks on supplies and can't stress enough to prepair early even if it turns out to be a slow season.............you just never know what might happen or where a storm might go.

-Chris

#34 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:37 am

After last season I shutter to offer a guess, at least right now. Maybe I'll try in April.

#35 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:24 am

La nina is not going to go very mdt or strong. Although take a peak at that High off the coast of the Eastern US now. I am starting to wonder if that may be telling us what might be coming this summer.

HURRICANELONNY · #36 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 6:44 am

They must have something to talk about on the radio. 610 A.M this morning was interviewing Mark Saunders. The professor that is predicting 17 storms on his latest update. They must be hard up to interview him. Especially this early in the game. I never heard him interveiwed on the radio before and I listen to 610 AM for traffic updates in the morning. :roll:

boca · #37 Postby **boca** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:11 am

I don't believe in predictions anymore until the season is upon us. Look what happened in 2006 with the predictions of an active season,need I say more.

dwg71 · #38 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:00 pm

Forecasts are ify proposistions. Doom and gloom forecasts are about as likely to occur as 2007 will be a bust.

HouTXmetro · #39 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 3:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:La nina is not going to go very mdt or strong. Although take a peak at that High off the coast of the Eastern US now. I am starting to wonder if that may be telling us what might be coming this summer.

Well doesn't a STRONG La Nina mean MORE STORMS and MORE RECURVATURE? Wouldn't neutral conditions and weak La Nina mean MORE STORMS and LESS RECURVATURE increasing the risk to the U.S. Coast. Just and uneducated guess.

Ptarmigan · #40 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 5:30 pm

sunny wrote:
As long as they are all fish storms, fine by me........

Personally I don't think the 2006 season was a bust, there were five hurricanes (2 major) and four tropical storms.

2006 season was more normal to slightly above average. We're too use to an active season.

Will 2007 Hurricane Season Be A Bust Like 2006 Was

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TSR

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