Intense tropical cyclone.
NWAus: ex-TC Kara
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
315 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
415 kilometres west northwest of Port Hedland,
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on a south southeasterly track
towards the Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities later on
Tuesday if the system maintains intensity and continues to move closer to the
coast.
Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, however recent satellite images
have indicated the system is moving into a less favourable environment and
weakening is anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hours. There is a greater than
normal uncertainty regarding the future track of Kara, especially as it begins
to weaken, and communities are advised to take the large potential track
forecast error into consideration.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.3 south longitude 115.3 east
Recent movement : south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
315 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
415 kilometres west northwest of Port Hedland,
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on a south southeasterly track
towards the Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities later on
Tuesday if the system maintains intensity and continues to move closer to the
coast.
Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, however recent satellite images
have indicated the system is moving into a less favourable environment and
weakening is anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hours. There is a greater than
normal uncertainty regarding the future track of Kara, especially as it begins
to weaken, and communities are advised to take the large potential track
forecast error into consideration.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.3 south longitude 115.3 east
Recent movement : south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
DOWNHILL FROM HERE:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1250 UTC 26/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 115.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (161 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 942 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (28 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (19 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/0000: 18.9S 115.7E: 055 (100): 080 (150): 950
+24: 27/1200: 19.7S 116.4E: 100 (185): 060 (110): 967
+36: 28/0000: 20.5S 117.3E: 160 (295): 045 (085): 983
+48: 28/1200: 21.2S 118.4E: 210 (390): 035 (065): 990
REMARKS:
Data T number has been as high as 6.0 during daylight hours, however constraints have held FT to 5.0. Recent images suggest NE'ly shearing is now impacting on the system circulation, and DT, MET and PAT agree on 5.0. Certainly there are strong signals from model guidance that shear in the order of 30 to 40 knots is expected to the south of the system in the next 12 to 36 hours.
Consensus approach is not applicable as no models capture current intensity or location sufficiently well, therefore the location forecast is based on persistence, climatology and synoptic assessment of steering patterns.
Category 1 intensity is forecast at landfall,though a margin of +/- one category number is feasible if the circulation makes it to the coast.
Principal concern in relation to community impact is potential for flooding in the central and east Pilbara regions.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.
Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1250 UTC 26/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 115.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (161 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 942 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (28 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (19 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/0000: 18.9S 115.7E: 055 (100): 080 (150): 950
+24: 27/1200: 19.7S 116.4E: 100 (185): 060 (110): 967
+36: 28/0000: 20.5S 117.3E: 160 (295): 045 (085): 983
+48: 28/1200: 21.2S 118.4E: 210 (390): 035 (065): 990
REMARKS:
Data T number has been as high as 6.0 during daylight hours, however constraints have held FT to 5.0. Recent images suggest NE'ly shearing is now impacting on the system circulation, and DT, MET and PAT agree on 5.0. Certainly there are strong signals from model guidance that shear in the order of 30 to 40 knots is expected to the south of the system in the next 12 to 36 hours.
Consensus approach is not applicable as no models capture current intensity or location sufficiently well, therefore the location forecast is based on persistence, climatology and synoptic assessment of steering patterns.
Category 1 intensity is forecast at landfall,though a margin of +/- one category number is feasible if the circulation makes it to the coast.
Principal concern in relation to community impact is potential for flooding in the central and east Pilbara regions.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.
Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
CIMSS: http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... nh20S.html
The system is not as well organized as it was hours ago. The eye was really visible and now it's almost absent.
The system is not as well organized as it was hours ago. The eye was really visible and now it's almost absent.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
285 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
370 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on a southeasterly track towards the
Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities later on Tuesday if the
system maintains intensity and continues to move closer to the coast.
Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, however recent satellite images
have indicated the system is moving into a less favourable environment and
weakening is anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hours. There is a greater than
normal uncertainty regarding the future track of Kara, especially as it begins
to weaken, and communities are advised to take the large potential track
forecast error into consideration.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 11:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.4 south longitude 115.7 east
Recent movement : southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
285 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
370 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on a southeasterly track towards the
Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities later on Tuesday if the
system maintains intensity and continues to move closer to the coast.
Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, however recent satellite images
have indicated the system is moving into a less favourable environment and
weakening is anticipated over the next 12 to 36 hours. There is a greater than
normal uncertainty regarding the future track of Kara, especially as it begins
to weaken, and communities are advised to take the large potential track
forecast error into consideration.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 11:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.4 south longitude 115.7 east
Recent movement : southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Onslow to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
The CYCLONE WARNING between Exmouth and Onslow has been cancelled.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
265 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
340 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on an east southeasterly track
towards the east Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities
overnight tonight if the system returns to a more southerly track, otherwise
during Wednesday.
Kara is a small but strong tropical cyclone, but weakening is anticipated over
the next 12 to 36 hours as the cyclone approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.0 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
[web]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60280.gif?1174838007940[/web]
[web]http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR162.gif?20070326021319[/web]
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Onslow to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
The CYCLONE WARNING between Exmouth and Onslow has been cancelled.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
265 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
340 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on an east southeasterly track
towards the east Pilbara coast. GALES may develop in coastal communities
overnight tonight if the system returns to a more southerly track, otherwise
during Wednesday.
Kara is a small but strong tropical cyclone, but weakening is anticipated over
the next 12 to 36 hours as the cyclone approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.0 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
[web]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60280.gif?1174838007940[/web]
[web]http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR162.gif?20070326021319[/web]
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 5:55 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Onslow to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
315 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now slowly moving on an east southeasterly track
and has maintained intensity as a category three system overnight. GALES may
develop in coastal communities overnight tonight if the system returns to a more
southerly or southeasterly track, or more likely during Wednesday.
Kara is a small but strong tropical cyclone and may continue as a category three
system today while being well offshore. However, weakening is anticipated by
Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 5:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.3 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Onslow and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Issued at 5:55 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Onslow to Wallal.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
315 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now slowly moving on an east southeasterly track
and has maintained intensity as a category three system overnight. GALES may
develop in coastal communities overnight tonight if the system returns to a more
southerly or southeasterly track, or more likely during Wednesday.
Kara is a small but strong tropical cyclone and may continue as a category three
system today while being well offshore. However, weakening is anticipated by
Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara as the
system approaches the coast.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 5:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.3 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Onslow and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Mardie to Wallal. The CYCLONE WARNING between Onslow and Mardie has been
cancelled.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
250 kilometres north of Karratha and
275 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east at 14 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on an easterly track and is beginning
to show signs of weakening. Kara is a small, intense tropical cyclone, that is
expected to weaken significantly over the next two days. It is not expected to
reach the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. GALES may develop in coastal
communities overnight tonight if the system returns to a more southerly or
southeasterly track. If Kara continues on a east to east southeasterly track
GALES are more likely to commence during Wednesday.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.8 east
Recent movement : east at 14 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 946 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Pardoo
including Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim Creek, Port
Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should commence
taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities near Onslow are advised that the
Blue Alert has been lifted.
Remaining communities between Mardie and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by noon WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices and
State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Pressure up 4 hectopascals and now moving eastward.
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Mardie to Wallal. The CYCLONE WARNING between Onslow and Mardie has been
cancelled.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
250 kilometres north of Karratha and
275 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving east at 14 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now moving on an easterly track and is beginning
to show signs of weakening. Kara is a small, intense tropical cyclone, that is
expected to weaken significantly over the next two days. It is not expected to
reach the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. GALES may develop in coastal
communities overnight tonight if the system returns to a more southerly or
southeasterly track. If Kara continues on a east to east southeasterly track
GALES are more likely to commence during Wednesday.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the central and eastern Pilbara.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 am WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.5 south longitude 116.8 east
Recent movement : east at 14 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 946 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Pardoo
including Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim Creek, Port
Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should commence
taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities near Onslow are advised that the
Blue Alert has been lifted.
Remaining communities between Mardie and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by noon WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices and
State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Pressure up 4 hectopascals and now moving eastward.
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MiamiensisWx
The system was likely undergoing an ERC several hours earlier and the eye is now reemerging. With upper-level tropospheric northwesterly flow enhancing divergence and outflow (and lessening shear), the apparent reorganization and intensification after the eyewall replacement was completed is not surprising given the synoptic factors reducing the effects of shear on the tropical cyclone.
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AXAU01 APRF 270650
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 27/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 118.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [103 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 8 nm [15 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 19.1S 119.7E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 972
+24: 28/0600: 19.6S 121.1E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 992
+36: 28/1800: 20.1S 121.5E: 105 [195]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 29/0600: 20.3S 121.3E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 29/1800: 20.5S 121.1E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1000
+72: 30/0600: 20.6S 120.8E: 220 [405]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Kara is now showing signs of rapid weakening with a marked warming of cloud top
temperatures, loss of structure and indications that the upper cloud mass is
beginning to shear away from the low level centre.
DT numbers show a marked decrease with the loss of eye pattern. FT is assessed
at 4.5 with CI held to 5.0, however expect to use a [maximum] 6 hour FT/CI lag
for this system given the small size. For warning policy reasons the maximum
sustained winds have been reduced below the MSW indicated by the CI.
Forecast track continues to be based on synoptic assessment of steering patterns
with short term bias for persistence.
Strong gradient in cumulative rainfall totals is expected from high totals NE of
Port Hedland to low totals to the SW.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 27/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 118.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [103 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 8 nm [15 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 19.1S 119.7E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 972
+24: 28/0600: 19.6S 121.1E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 992
+36: 28/1800: 20.1S 121.5E: 105 [195]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 29/0600: 20.3S 121.3E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 1000
+60: 29/1800: 20.5S 121.1E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1000
+72: 30/0600: 20.6S 120.8E: 220 [405]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Kara is now showing signs of rapid weakening with a marked warming of cloud top
temperatures, loss of structure and indications that the upper cloud mass is
beginning to shear away from the low level centre.
DT numbers show a marked decrease with the loss of eye pattern. FT is assessed
at 4.5 with CI held to 5.0, however expect to use a [maximum] 6 hour FT/CI lag
for this system given the small size. For warning policy reasons the maximum
sustained winds have been reduced below the MSW indicated by the CI.
Forecast track continues to be based on synoptic assessment of steering patterns
with short term bias for persistence.
Strong gradient in cumulative rainfall totals is expected from high totals NE of
Port Hedland to low totals to the SW.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like a very tight cat3 to me 100 knots. Nice cold cloud tops with nice pin hole eye.
At the time of this comment the JTWC had intensity (per NRL, at 12Z on the 26th) at 90 kt, down from 105 kt at 06Z. So, the JTWC peaked the storm at Cat 3/105kt. Weirdly enough, at the 09Z warning on the 26th (operational time 06Z), JTWC said 65 kt.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Whim Creek to Bidyadanga.
The CYCLONE WARNING between Roebourne and Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
190 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
300 kilometres west northwest of Wallal,
moving east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now showing marked signs of weakening and is
expected to continue to weaken overnight. If Kara maintains an east
southeasterly track it is likely to cross Eighty Mile beach during Wednesday.
GALES may develop in coastal communities overnight tonight or during Wednesday
as the system moves closer to the coast. Kara is not expected to cause
destructive winds on the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the east Pilbara and west Kimberley.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.7 south longitude 118.0 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 958 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and
Bidyadanga, including Whim Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal
and Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities near Pannawonica, Fortescue
Roadhouse, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised
that the Blue Alert has been lifted.
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Tuesday, 27 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Whim Creek to Bidyadanga.
The CYCLONE WARNING between Roebourne and Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 2:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
190 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
300 kilometres west northwest of Wallal,
moving east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara is now showing marked signs of weakening and is
expected to continue to weaken overnight. If Kara maintains an east
southeasterly track it is likely to cross Eighty Mile beach during Wednesday.
GALES may develop in coastal communities overnight tonight or during Wednesday
as the system moves closer to the coast. Kara is not expected to cause
destructive winds on the coast.
HEAVY RAIN may cause areas of flooding in the east Pilbara and west Kimberley.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 pm WST.
Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.7 south longitude 118.0 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 958 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and
Bidyadanga, including Whim Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal
and Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities near Pannawonica, Fortescue
Roadhouse, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised
that the Blue Alert has been lifted.
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 27 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 271305
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 27/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [110 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 19.4S 121.0E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 988
+24: 28/1200: 20.0S 122.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 29/0000: 20.5S 122.4E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 29/1200: 21.0S 122.7E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: : : :
+72: 30/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Kara has undergone rapid weakening over the last 6 hours with a marked loss of
structure. The upper cloud mass is now well separated from the low level centre.
Cloud pattern indicated almost no tropical characteristics.
DT numbers show a marked decrease. FT is assessed at 3.5 with CI held to 4.0,
however expect to use a [maximum] 6 hour FT/CI lag for this system given the
small size.
Forecast track continues to be based on synoptic assessment of steering patterns
with short term bias for persistence.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 27/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [110 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 19.4S 121.0E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 988
+24: 28/1200: 20.0S 122.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 29/0000: 20.5S 122.4E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 29/1200: 21.0S 122.7E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: : : :
+72: 30/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Kara has undergone rapid weakening over the last 6 hours with a marked loss of
structure. The upper cloud mass is now well separated from the low level centre.
Cloud pattern indicated almost no tropical characteristics.
DT numbers show a marked decrease. FT is assessed at 3.5 with CI held to 4.0,
however expect to use a [maximum] 6 hour FT/CI lag for this system given the
small size.
Forecast track continues to be based on synoptic assessment of steering patterns
with short term bias for persistence.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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