Mozambique Channel: ex-TC Jaya (ex-TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

[font=Century Gothic]JAYA: FAST & FURIOUS[/font]

I'm pretty sure this isn't a moderate tropical storm any more!!!

[JonathanBelles]

Wow, it developed fast.

[Chacor]

Yes it did, it's now a TC.

670
WTIO30 FMEE 310030

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 64.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/31 12 UTC: 14.4S/62.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 14.9S/60.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 14.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 14.0S/51.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM PRESENTING NOW AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
SYSTEM IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A FIRST TIME LINKED TO THE
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW AND THEN MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFY
UNDERGOING VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS LINKED TO A VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
AN EXISTING WESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR 25S.
BEYOND 60H TO 72 HOURS , SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.

[MiamiensisWx]

Jaya has been featuring good mid-level outflow enhanced by a mid-level ridge and anticyclone (and a weak shortwave trough and mid-tropospheric trough) in the vicinity. Note the weak mid-level low to the southwest of Jaya within the upper-level flow from the northwest to southeast. On a side note, this is one of the nicest developing TC satellite presentations I have seen in recent months. The CDO is well-organized and outflow is relatively unrestricted.

[pojo]

[Chacor]

Yes, it's looking very good.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 310637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 0600 UTC :
14.2S / 63.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 MOINS /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/31 18 UTC: 14.7S/61.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 15.1S/59.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 15.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.6E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 14.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 14.3S/51.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=5.0+
THE EIR ANALYSIS LEADS TO T5.5 BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0500Z, WILL VISIBLE
ANALISYS IS LOWER AND DVORAK RULES LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION, SO THE
SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT 5.0+ INTENSITY.
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), SHOWING A WARM AND DRY EYE
WITH IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. IT IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, NOW AT THE
TRESHOLD AF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN "NORMAL"
SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY.
IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
JAYA IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.

80kt from MF. NRL is saying 90 kt now:

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 311232

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/14/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 1200 UTC :
14.5S / 62.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 15.0S/60.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.5S/57.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.7S/53.4E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 15.4S/52.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=5.5
THE EIR ANALYSIS LEADS TO T6.0, WILL VISIBLE ANALYSIS IS LOWER AND
DVORAK RULES LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION, SO THE SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT 5.5
INTENSITY.
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
WARM AND DRY 20NM DIAMETER EYE.

ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN
"NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY.
IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
JAYA IS FORCASTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINES, UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS WICH
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF MADAGASCAR.=

D2.5/24HRS. Rapid intensification, too.

[Chacor]

A very compact system.

In relation to the surroundings, this is how small it is:


Further proof: despite its intensity, storm-force winds of 50kt only reach outward up to 70 km (44 mi).

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

[font=Georgia]LETS TALK ABOUT RAPID INTENSIFICATION! [/font]

[P.K.]

Continues to develop.

2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 1800 UTC :
14.7S / 61.5E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/59.1E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/56.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.7S/54.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.5S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
60H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.1S/50.6E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
72H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.1S/48.5E OVERLAND.

[HURAKAN]

If this track verifies Jaya has the opportunity to continue towards the Mozambique Channel.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really tight!!

[HURAKAN]

072
WTIO30 FMEE 010033 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/14/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 0000 UTC :
14.8S / 60.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.2S/57.7E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
24H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.5S/55.3E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
36H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.3S/53.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
48H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 14.8S/51.1E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.
..
60H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 14.0S/49.2E OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 13.6S/47.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN "NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT
INTENSITY.
IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
JAYA IS FORCASTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINES, UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS WICH
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF MADAGASCAR.

[Chacor]

Weakened slightly now:

THE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANZING
STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA"
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY ; IT IS ADVISABLE TO
WAIT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING TENDENCY.

Up to 934 hPa.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 58.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 22S HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND ITS CORE,
AND A 010240Z SSMI VAPOR IMAGE INDICATES THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT THE
DRIER AIR IS CLEARLY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSITY. TC 22S
CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGH ZONAL PATTERN,
WITH NO APPARENT MECHANISM TO BREAK DOWN THIS STEERING RIDGE.THE
DYNAMIC AIDS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//

[Chacor]

Back to a TC now.

WTIO30 FMEE 011211

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 57.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.6S/53.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 15.6S/51.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 14.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 14.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ ; CI=5.5-
"JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS
EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS A WEAKENING TENDENCY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE : THE WARM CORE IS
NOT STABILIZED AND IS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EROSION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS WEAKENING IS
DUE TO A MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" INTENSITY MAY STILL FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A WEAKENING TENDENCY.

[HURAKAN]

146
WTIO30 FMEE 011837

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 1800 UTC :
15.2S / 56.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.5S/52.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.2S/51.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.7S/49.6E OVERLAND.
60H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 14.5S/48.1E OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 14.4S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
"JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS
EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED.
THE WEAKENING STARTED LAST NIGHT HAS STOPPED DURING LAST HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" INTENSITY MAY STILL
FLUCTUATE
VERY RAPIDLY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS
THE
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.

AT MEDIUM RANGE, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT, SO THE FORECAST
IS
UNCERTAIN BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME (GFDN, NOGAPS) MAKE IT TRACK
SOUTHWARDS AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER ITS LANDFALL, OTHERS (UKMO,
ECMWF
, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES) MAKE IT CROSS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.=

[Chacor]

429
WTIO30 FMEE 020617

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 0600 UTC :
15.2S / 54.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.1S/53.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 14.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.7S/48.5E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 15.4S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 15.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-
THE SMALL EYE HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED - AND COOLER - OVER THE LAST HOURS
ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE MW IMAGERY WHERE
THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS ERODED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, AND MAKE A LANDFALL IN ANTALAHA'S AREA IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT SCENARII OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS: THE FIRST ONE CROSSES QUICKLY THE NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR (ECMWF, UKMO) AND FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE SECOND ONE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER THE LANDFALL, AND
THEN DISSIPATES OVERLAND (NOGAPS, GFDN).