SPac: Extratropical: ex-Cliff 23P

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 05/1347 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 SOUTH
176.5 WEST AT 051200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 55
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES
OF THE CENTRE AND WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CICRLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ORGANISTION STEADY DESPITE SHEAR. CDO MORE SYMETRICAL. OUTFLOW FAIR
TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7/0.8
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.5. PAT AND MET AGREE, THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF THE UPPER [250 HPA]
DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONE ACCELERATING INTO
STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST REGION STEERED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 060000 UTC NEAR 25.2S 174.8W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 061200 UTC NEAR 27.6S 172.7W MOV SE 15KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 070000 UTC NEAR 30.3S 169.8W MOV SE 16KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 070600 UTC NEAR 33.1S 168.2W MOV SE 16KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CLIFF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
052000 UTC.

[Chacor]

562
WWSO21 ABRF 051801
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
1801 UTC 5 April 2007

Tropical cyclone Cliff

051630 UTC

23.0S 175.0W

Analysis based on: GMS5 IR 1630UTC and previous AMSRE pass which had an eye.

Latitude Detection Sum : 5

Longitude Detection Sum: 13

T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

Microwave data has indicated an eye wall, not fully around the centre. IR shows
still lots of out flow with little shear. Dvorak based on MET and Pattern which
is consistent with the curved band indicated by microwave.

Next bulletin will be issued at 052300 UTC.

WHR BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 05/1949 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3 SOUTH
175.6 WEST AT 051800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN
30 MILES OF THE CENTRE AND WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CICRLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST 3-6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS STEADY DESPITE SHEAR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
INDICATE PRESENCE OF LLCC ON NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CDO. OUTFLOW FAIR
TO GOOD IN NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR WITH LLCC LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREES FROM DG
YIELDING A DT 3.0. PAT AGREE BUT MET REMAINS AT 3.5, THUS
T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER [250 HPA]
OUTFLOW CENTRE DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONE
ACCELERATING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST REGION STEERED BY
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 060600 UTC NEAR 25.7S 173.4W MOV SE 15KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 061800 UTC NEAR 28.2S 171.1W MOV SE 20KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 070600 UTC NEAR 31.6S 166.7W MOV SE 25KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 071800 UTC NEAR 34.1S 161.5W MOV ESE 25KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CLIFF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
060200 UTC.

[Coredesat]

Looks like it's already becoming extratropical:

[P.K.]

Declared ET.

GALE WARNING 071
This affects ocean area/s: PACIFIC

AT 061200UTC

Low Ex TC Cliff 995hPa near 26.3S 168.1W moving southeast 20kt.
Within 120 miles of low in northeastern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Area of gales moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 067.