Remnants of Andrea-Thread 3

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat May 12, 2007 10:46 pm

curtadams wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its being kicked out now, the LLC is on the western side of the convection, but expect some strengthing over the next 6 hours before it makes cooler water.
How can you tell? I can't identify an LLC even on shortwave. Some arcs to the S look like the LLC is under the cloud cover, but it's hard to be sure.


I would like more data, but that link I posted above gives a good idea and picture of the lower level clouds. So I track them...It could be off the surface but who really knows, it has had a LLC so I think it still remains.
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#22 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 12:12 am

Andrea doe's not look half bad. Wish we had some new quickscats.
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 12:19 am

Image

The window of opportunity is closing really fast.
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#24 Postby Cyclenall » Sun May 13, 2007 12:20 am

I like this shot, it looks like Andrea has a eye.

Image
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 12:26 am

^^^ It almost looks like your avatar!!!
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#26 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 12:41 am

Andrea tryed her best to be noticed, but at least see got named. Thats all I can possibly ask.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 12:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Andrea tryed her best to be noticed, but at least see got named. Thats all I can possibly ask.


She was a fighter when she was extratropical, she was a fighter when she was subtropical, and has been a fighter during her tropical stage. It has been a nice start to the season.
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#28 Postby pojo » Sun May 13, 2007 12:57 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Andrea tryed her best to be noticed, but at least see got named. Thats all I can possibly ask.


The Hurricane Hunters got a couple of 'trainer' flights into Andrea... that's all we asked for.
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#29 Postby Chacor » Sun May 13, 2007 1:09 am

NHC still saying it could still become a TD...

2:05...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENE OF THE
CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 30N75W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AND A
CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SE US IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
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#30 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 1:24 am

They are saying its close to a tropical depression, so just a little more then we will have a advisorie.
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#31 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 2:11 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Still 5-10 knots of shear, so so far its been kicked out just right. Convection is also looking nearly as good as it did early today.
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#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 3:13 am

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#33 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 3:52 am

Alberto-2006 had many centeres through out its life,,,was a mostly exposed LLC. Andrea has a CDO with a well defined LLC. Guest what Aiberto did have convection form over its LLC. But no it did not have to hold it to be a named system.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2006 ... rto06c.gif

Tropical storm Chris-yes nice Central dense overcase over the LLC. Looks as good as Andrea. Heck about the same.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2006 ... ris06c.gif

Alrene 2005-Sad I do say,,,For most of its life it was no more organized then Alberto with many centers. Very little overall convection.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... ene05c.gif


Tropical storm Gert, heck they could not hardly pin point a center as it was nearing land. Weak system...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... ert05c.gif

T.D 10, wow the LLC is not any where near the convection. But yeah I give this creit for a short time being organized enough to earn the number. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... ten05c.gif

Tropical storm Lee-what? Yes I do believe it was a cyclone, but hey Andrea is a distrabance.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... lee05c.gif

Tropical depression 19-what on gods green earth is this? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... een05c.gif

Tropical storm Tammy-not that much convection,,,and small LLC.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... mmy05c.gif

Tropical depression 22-wow another sleeper. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... two05c.gif

Tropical storm Gamma-For most of its life it was a sheared mess, heck times we could not find a LLC. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... mma05c.gif

T.D 2/Bonnie 04-Let me say that for most it its life it was sad.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... two04v.gif

Tropical storm Earl-Really nice banding but dud. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... arl04c.gif

Tropical storm Hermine-Most of its life the LLC was north of the convection. It was a sorry looking system, Andrea would eat it a live. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... ine04c.gif

Tropical depression ten, wow do the tenth depressions don't have any luck? The LLC is 80 miles west of its convection. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... ten04c.gif

Tropical storm matthew-Yes I'm going to bash my self, the LLC is not under the convection looks like trash. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... hew04c.gif

Subtropical storm Nicole, heck Andrea as a subtropical system its self would kick it half way across the street. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... ole04c.gif

Tropical storm otto, not much better then Andrea. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004 ... tto04c.gif

Tropical storm Ana-not perfect convection over the center, off with its head.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... ana03c.gif

Tropical storm 2-sad again http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... two03c.gif

Tropical depression 7-I don't point to say any more.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... ven03c.gif

Tropical depression 9-looks good but NO LLC http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... ine03c.gif

Tropical storm DISGRACE-sadest thing I've ever seen. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... ace03c.gif

Henri-wow thats all I'm going to say http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2003 ... 3_sum.html

I won't go any farther,,,I made a good case for why I think what I think.
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#34 Postby Thunder44 » Sun May 13, 2007 4:28 am

Looking at IR-2 imagery, the LLC appears to be SW of the deeper convection, near 30N 76W this morning, moving slowly NE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

There no ships around, so using Dvorak T#, I estimate the max winds are near 25kts. It also estimates the position near where I placed too:

13/0545 UTC 30.0N 75.9W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA
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#35 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 13, 2007 4:34 am

First of all go here http://www.oceanweather.com/data/ then press on southeast US. You will find a map with wave direction. See a LLC is a closed surface wind field also a low pressure at the surface. The winds form wind waves, guest what it shows a closed LLC. Then go to the few buoy or ship reports. They will to a point back that up.


Yes the LLC is slightly southwest of the center of the convection. But this thing looks very good right now, overall shape and some banding forming, I would say it looks better then earlier today. If it was not for it moving into colder water, I would be watching for this to pull a ISACC 2006, or many different storms. But its going to start weaking soon.
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#36 Postby Thunder44 » Sun May 13, 2007 5:00 am

Thanks, Matt for the link. There is one ship on that map report I found around 6z at 31.3N 73.1W that reported a south wind at 15kts with pressure near 1014mb. But that was east of the deeper convection. There were no ships close enough to get real accurate estimate on max winds or pressure:

SHIP S 0600 31.30 -73.10 130 117 200 15.0 - 4.9 3.0 - - 29.94
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#37 Postby Thunder44 » Sun May 13, 2007 5:14 am

It looks like shear is beginning to increase on the system. It's little hard to tell without visible imagery, but latest infrared images look like the thunderstorms are being blown NE of the center.

According to CIMMS analysis at 9z, Shear is currently 5 - 10kts over the system and has been decreasing over the past 24hrs:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

But it still looks to me like the center is becoming more displaced from the convection.
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#38 Postby Thunder44 » Sun May 13, 2007 7:24 am

It appears the LLC has opened up. This morning QS shows no closed surface center.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

First visible images, the center looks broader and elongated. This appears to be end for further TC development.
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#39 Postby curtadams » Sun May 13, 2007 8:19 am

Good comparisons, Matt. RGB shows the convection is under the CDO, verifying that they've been tightly associated for some time now. Not a TD now since it's opened up but definitely one earlier. The prior descending quickscat pass (whenever it was) even showed an uncontaminated 25kt barb.
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#40 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 8:37 am

13/1145 UTC 30.4N 74.4W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

Sorry Andrea, you got played. Like Matt did, I also did a comparison between Andrea and other storms, many of which Matt used in his comparison.

By the way, for the next time, if you have a disturbance near your shores, the RECON airplanes should be available 24 hours/ 7 days a week. What the NHC did with Andrea was that when the storm began to look better, "hey lets call the guys and schedule a mission for tomorrow, if necessary." I just didn't like how the NHC managed Andrea, it was horrible to say the least.
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