I think you are all forgetting one rather major point...
New Orleans is on land that is sinking and also the only protection it has is currently eroding and gotten rid off at quite an alarming rate. As bad as Katrina was given those two factors you have to say next time a large system comes along like that it could be yet worse still...
Also as bad as Katrina was, New Orleans really wasn't hit that hard compared to what could have been, I mean I can't recall too many gusts above cat-1 status there. i know the main story is about flooding but a system that is large and is moving fairly quickly could easily beat what Katrina did in terms of wind damage.
A question about New Orleans...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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skysummit
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KWT wrote:I think you are all forgetting one rather major point...
New Orleans is on land that is sinking and also the only protection it has is currently eroding and gotten rid off at quite an alarming rate. As bad as Katrina was given those two factors you have to say next time a large system comes along like that it could be yet worse still...
Also as bad as Katrina was, New Orleans really wasn't hit that hard compared to what could have been, I mean I can't recall too many gusts above cat-1 status there. i know the main story is about flooding but a system that is large and is moving fairly quickly could easily beat what Katrina did in terms of wind damage.
yea....and so the same could happen to Miami, Jacksonville, Mobile, Tampa, Houston, Corpus Christi, Savannah, blah blah blah...
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On the other hand, if the area offered no resources and was basically some podunk created playland, oh say like Hilton Head, SC (where the one thing that stands out more than anything else is the volume of garden mulch), it probably wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to rebuild it. Besides offering a vacation destination for tourists and a place where preppy-styled white people can move or retire, it doesn't really contribute anything earth shattering in the way of culture or resources to the rest of America. I'm not discounting the contributions of coastal South Carolina (Low Country cooking and such), but while we definitely know that the country is much less without New Orleans, I really don't think Hilton Head Island can make that claim.
I just asked a question...
I'm sorry you think this island is full of preppy white people. FYI, 20% people are spanish, 30% black, 50% white.. Most people who live here, don't golf nor play tennis, don't have millions and barely can support their family's on the money we make. We work hard to serve those that come here so we can all have a job.
To everyone else.
Thank you for the input. I found that very interesting.
I just asked a question...
I'm sorry you think this island is full of preppy white people. FYI, 20% people are spanish, 30% black, 50% white.. Most people who live here, don't golf nor play tennis, don't have millions and barely can support their family's on the money we make. We work hard to serve those that come here so we can all have a job.
To everyone else.
Thank you for the input. I found that very interesting.
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>>I just asked a question...
I'm sorry you think this island is full of preppy white people. FYI, 20% people are spanish, 30% black, 50% white.. Most people who live here, don't golf nor play tennis, don't have millions and barely can support their family's on the money we make. We work hard to serve those that come here so we can all have a job.
What's the day-to-day percentage of residents to those types of tourists then? Myrtle Beach and Charleston seem much more in line with cities that actually contribute to American culture.
Steve
I'm sorry you think this island is full of preppy white people. FYI, 20% people are spanish, 30% black, 50% white.. Most people who live here, don't golf nor play tennis, don't have millions and barely can support their family's on the money we make. We work hard to serve those that come here so we can all have a job.
What's the day-to-day percentage of residents to those types of tourists then? Myrtle Beach and Charleston seem much more in line with cities that actually contribute to American culture.
Steve
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vbhoutex
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Back to the subject of the original question or we will be locking this thread. Please keep the emotions out of it people. They are not necessary when discussions are being had about a subject. I know they exist and I understand why they exist, but don't let them get in the way of this discussion please. To those on the "other side" of the fence(who were not directly affectd by Katrina) concerning this issue I ask that you still be sensitive towards those that have had their lives changed forever.
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miamicanes177
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Derek Ortt
Miami does not face the surge threat for 2 main reasons
1. Most canes hit from the south or SW
2. The waters to the east are not that deep and there is a ridge line very near Biscayne Bay
Now, as for the highrises, totally different issue. They should NOT be here since Miami can receive cat 4 or 5 winds
1. Most canes hit from the south or SW
2. The waters to the east are not that deep and there is a ridge line very near Biscayne Bay
Now, as for the highrises, totally different issue. They should NOT be here since Miami can receive cat 4 or 5 winds
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BigO
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Marietta, GA: Knows what it means to miss New Orleans...
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I lived in Mid-city NOLA and had 4' of water in my yard. Fortunately, my house was raised 4' off the ground and suffered mostly floor, electrcal, plumbing and HVAC damage. Took us 18 months to repair and we were fortunate enough to recover our investment when we sold it a few weeks ago.
That being said, I agree that it is unwise to rebuild UNTIL the levees offer adequate protection. I'm not advocating Cat 5 impregnability (although that would certainly be nice), but to the Cat 3 level they were designed for originally and armored with rip-rap on the outside to prevent scouring should they be overtopped. Bringing the levees back even to the level of protection they were designed for combined with an effective evacuation strategy and plan would be not only reasonable, but to my way of thinking, mandatory.
THIS ARTICLE draws serious doubt that the levees in their current state could weather even a Cat 2 storm. A Cat 2 storm wouldn't even promote an evacuation (at least it wouldn't pre-Katrina and I've seen surveys that indicate this is still the case post-Katrina), which means it could happen again and be even worse in terms of the death toll. The Corps admits that the levees aren't up to snuff and that they won't be until 2011 or so. That certainly inspires folks to return and rebuild, doesn't it?
And then there is the--I have no other word to describe it--incompetence of the leadership from the city council all the way up to the governess' office. I can't think of a single important task in the recovery process that they haven't fouled up one way or another. It is appalling that the city is still in the condition it is and how little has been accomplished. All of these factors led us to conclude that we were better off in suburban Atlanta (which has all of the culture of a Happy Meal) than our beloved NOLA. It isn't a very pleasant place to be anymore and it certainly isn't an environment conducive to raising kids.
NOLA had its problems before the storm, but all Katrina did was take away the good things about the city and left behind the bad (my opinion, your mileage may vary). I am not a native (although I did live there for a decade), so I don't have the family aspect my Cajun wife does. I can only say that it was the only place that I lived in simply because that is where I wanted to live and I soaked up every bit of it while I was there. People ask me if I like it here (I don't) and I just smile and say "Well, it ain't New Orleans...but then again neither is New Orleans anymore."
IMNSHO, until you have a reasonable degree of protection from storm surge (restoring the coastline would help that a lot as well, but that's another rant), it would seem foolish to me to rebuild the most vulnerable areas of the city. Once that protection is restored, build away.
I was there on the 19th month anniversary of the storm making landfall and travelled through Lakeview (lots of empty lots with for sale signs in front of them), the Lower 9th (no signs of life, save the streets are clear of debris), Arabi and Chalmette (signs of life, but not much) and New Orleans East (which is surprisingly recovering). What I saw broke my heart even further. I don't see a city that is recovering. I see a city that is on life support and is in danger of dying outright.
Again, this is the OPINION of a former resident. I mean no disrespect to those who have returned and are trying to recover. My heart's with you even if my family and life situations made it impossible for me to join you.
That being said, I agree that it is unwise to rebuild UNTIL the levees offer adequate protection. I'm not advocating Cat 5 impregnability (although that would certainly be nice), but to the Cat 3 level they were designed for originally and armored with rip-rap on the outside to prevent scouring should they be overtopped. Bringing the levees back even to the level of protection they were designed for combined with an effective evacuation strategy and plan would be not only reasonable, but to my way of thinking, mandatory.
THIS ARTICLE draws serious doubt that the levees in their current state could weather even a Cat 2 storm. A Cat 2 storm wouldn't even promote an evacuation (at least it wouldn't pre-Katrina and I've seen surveys that indicate this is still the case post-Katrina), which means it could happen again and be even worse in terms of the death toll. The Corps admits that the levees aren't up to snuff and that they won't be until 2011 or so. That certainly inspires folks to return and rebuild, doesn't it?
And then there is the--I have no other word to describe it--incompetence of the leadership from the city council all the way up to the governess' office. I can't think of a single important task in the recovery process that they haven't fouled up one way or another. It is appalling that the city is still in the condition it is and how little has been accomplished. All of these factors led us to conclude that we were better off in suburban Atlanta (which has all of the culture of a Happy Meal) than our beloved NOLA. It isn't a very pleasant place to be anymore and it certainly isn't an environment conducive to raising kids.
NOLA had its problems before the storm, but all Katrina did was take away the good things about the city and left behind the bad (my opinion, your mileage may vary). I am not a native (although I did live there for a decade), so I don't have the family aspect my Cajun wife does. I can only say that it was the only place that I lived in simply because that is where I wanted to live and I soaked up every bit of it while I was there. People ask me if I like it here (I don't) and I just smile and say "Well, it ain't New Orleans...but then again neither is New Orleans anymore."
IMNSHO, until you have a reasonable degree of protection from storm surge (restoring the coastline would help that a lot as well, but that's another rant), it would seem foolish to me to rebuild the most vulnerable areas of the city. Once that protection is restored, build away.
I was there on the 19th month anniversary of the storm making landfall and travelled through Lakeview (lots of empty lots with for sale signs in front of them), the Lower 9th (no signs of life, save the streets are clear of debris), Arabi and Chalmette (signs of life, but not much) and New Orleans East (which is surprisingly recovering). What I saw broke my heart even further. I don't see a city that is recovering. I see a city that is on life support and is in danger of dying outright.
Again, this is the OPINION of a former resident. I mean no disrespect to those who have returned and are trying to recover. My heart's with you even if my family and life situations made it impossible for me to join you.
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Hello everyone. As a Katrina victim and a former resident of New Orleans i feel that every place should rebuild after an event such as this one. We can not escape the weather everywhere we live. Its just something we have to prepare for. At the same time I also understand that we should be aware of the dangers we face living in areas such as New Orleans with hurricanes and the central U. S. with tornados
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Derek Ortt wrote:return period for Greenberg is far less frequent than the coastal flood plain
Same thing applies to a California earthquake. The two arguments are not the same
Derek I respect your posts and professional opinions however I disagree with this statement. Can you provide proof that California earthquakes or Kansas tornadoes occur no more than 45 years apart? Yes, that is how long it's been since my city was hit by a major hurricane.
I've lived here all my life and never experienced a major hurricane and now people have the audacity to suggest that I simply walk away.
I hope and pray that a disaster doesn't leave any of you making the same decisions.....................ever.
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Janie2006
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Nearly all of the "Janie" women on my mother's side are Mississippi-born and raised. We've called Mississippi home, from the coast to the capital and beyond. Anyplace from Diamondhead to Moss Point to Meridian is my "home base". I may wander many places across this country, but a part of me always stays on the Gulf Coast.
I fully confess I had not expected another storm like Camille back in 2005, even though anyone knows that every hurricane season brings the risk. We do what we've done for generations...make preparations and respect the power of the storm. Sometimes your best isn't good enough, and you lose everything. You learn the storm's lessons and rebuild, hopefully a little more seasoned.
That being said, I do think protective measures should be in place before rebuilding. In this manner we can prevent the same catastrophes from happening over and over. After all, that was the reason for the seawall on Galveston Island, and its one of the reasons for the levees over in NO. I also think over-development is a big problem. It has to be channeled in a way that works with topography and climatology, never against it. You can't win a battle like that and you'll lose everytime.
This issue has been raised several times since Katrina, and each time I have the same answer. Our hearts are here, and this is our home.
I fully confess I had not expected another storm like Camille back in 2005, even though anyone knows that every hurricane season brings the risk. We do what we've done for generations...make preparations and respect the power of the storm. Sometimes your best isn't good enough, and you lose everything. You learn the storm's lessons and rebuild, hopefully a little more seasoned.
That being said, I do think protective measures should be in place before rebuilding. In this manner we can prevent the same catastrophes from happening over and over. After all, that was the reason for the seawall on Galveston Island, and its one of the reasons for the levees over in NO. I also think over-development is a big problem. It has to be channeled in a way that works with topography and climatology, never against it. You can't win a battle like that and you'll lose everytime.
This issue has been raised several times since Katrina, and each time I have the same answer. Our hearts are here, and this is our home.
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>>Well, the MGC is not in a bowl or between a river and lake and look what happened to us. Any of those cities listed would be a waste land if 20-30 feet of surge landed on their door step. Are we going to abandon Miami after the next 1928 hurricane? Doubt it....MGC
Agreed. And most of New Orleans isn't below sea level (popular misconception). The Army Corps of Engineers' levees are what failed us. Maybe the next time some city gets nuked, they won't rebuild it because we didn't have star wars properly operational? Maybe, maybe not.
But there are a whole host of Gulf Coast and East Coast cities which are vulnerable to storm surges (many worse than New Orleans). The difference is, most of those cities would be washed through (+/- MGC) rather than having a lake empty into them. So for anyone dissing my hometown, think Washington DC, New York City, Providence, Galveston, Houston, Mobile (a potential nightmare for storm surges), Brownsville, Houston, Tampa metro, the Carolinas, Chesapeake Bay, etc. etc. etc.
Their doom will come eventually too. Whether it's this year, in the 2020's, next century or 1,000 years from now, the clock is ticking.
>>Please keep the emotions out of it people. They are not necessary when discussions are being had about a subject.
While I certainly agree, as an American, I'm pretty damned tired of ignorant people in the general population and in the United States Government (reference Utah Senator Bennett, etc.) repeating this question in the news, in Congress, on weather forums and such. We in South Louisiana give more per capita to this country in the way of seafood, energy and the like than almost any other state. For allowing the drilling for everyone else's oil and gas, canals that crisscrossed our state helped contribute to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion which is a vicious cycle. It's not like this stuff is top secret, it's all out there. And anyone on a weather forum should have an idea. Just the same, we have most of the nation's wetlands. Any of you like to drive cars or run air conditioners? Well we suffer so that you can. As of 2005, the state's rankings out of 50 are as follows:
1st - Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Natural Gas
1st - Revenues generated for the federal government
1st - Mineral revenues of any sort to the federal government
2nd - Natural Gas
2nd - Total Energy from all Sources
2nd - dry Natural Gas Proven Reserves
2nd - Crude Oil Proven Reserves
So I'm just going to stop here and not fight with anyone. I understand that some people are simply hypersensitive (reference PM and bolded preppy comment; yeah I'm a white guy too and pretty anti-PC) and that is a reflection of a politically correct assault and the wussification of America. I understand that there might be questions, but seriously, by May 2007, the question of why rebuild New Orleans has been asked ad nauseum including on this forum. Some people just don't want to understand, troll forums or whatever. But the truth is out there for anyone who really cares.
Steve
Agreed. And most of New Orleans isn't below sea level (popular misconception). The Army Corps of Engineers' levees are what failed us. Maybe the next time some city gets nuked, they won't rebuild it because we didn't have star wars properly operational? Maybe, maybe not.
But there are a whole host of Gulf Coast and East Coast cities which are vulnerable to storm surges (many worse than New Orleans). The difference is, most of those cities would be washed through (+/- MGC) rather than having a lake empty into them. So for anyone dissing my hometown, think Washington DC, New York City, Providence, Galveston, Houston, Mobile (a potential nightmare for storm surges), Brownsville, Houston, Tampa metro, the Carolinas, Chesapeake Bay, etc. etc. etc.
Their doom will come eventually too. Whether it's this year, in the 2020's, next century or 1,000 years from now, the clock is ticking.
>>Please keep the emotions out of it people. They are not necessary when discussions are being had about a subject.
While I certainly agree, as an American, I'm pretty damned tired of ignorant people in the general population and in the United States Government (reference Utah Senator Bennett, etc.) repeating this question in the news, in Congress, on weather forums and such. We in South Louisiana give more per capita to this country in the way of seafood, energy and the like than almost any other state. For allowing the drilling for everyone else's oil and gas, canals that crisscrossed our state helped contribute to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion which is a vicious cycle. It's not like this stuff is top secret, it's all out there. And anyone on a weather forum should have an idea. Just the same, we have most of the nation's wetlands. Any of you like to drive cars or run air conditioners? Well we suffer so that you can. As of 2005, the state's rankings out of 50 are as follows:
1st - Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Natural Gas
1st - Revenues generated for the federal government
1st - Mineral revenues of any sort to the federal government
2nd - Natural Gas
2nd - Total Energy from all Sources
2nd - dry Natural Gas Proven Reserves
2nd - Crude Oil Proven Reserves
So I'm just going to stop here and not fight with anyone. I understand that some people are simply hypersensitive (reference PM and bolded preppy comment; yeah I'm a white guy too and pretty anti-PC) and that is a reflection of a politically correct assault and the wussification of America. I understand that there might be questions, but seriously, by May 2007, the question of why rebuild New Orleans has been asked ad nauseum including on this forum. Some people just don't want to understand, troll forums or whatever. But the truth is out there for anyone who really cares.
Steve
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Derek Ortt
Steve wrote:>>Well, the MGC is not in a bowl or between a river and lake and look what happened to us. Any of those cities listed would be a waste land if 20-30 feet of surge landed on their door step. Are we going to abandon Miami after the next 1928 hurricane? Doubt it....MGC
Agreed. And most of New Orleans isn't below sea level (popular misconception). The Army Corps of Engineers' levees are what failed us. Maybe the next time some city gets nuked, they won't rebuild it because we didn't have star wars properly operational? Maybe, maybe not.
But there are a whole host of Gulf Coast and East Coast cities which are vulnerable to storm surges (many worse than New Orleans). The difference is, most of those cities would be washed through (+/- MGC) rather than having a lake empty into them. So for anyone dissing my hometown, think Washington DC, New York City, Providence, Galveston, Houston, Mobile (a potential nightmare for storm surges), Brownsville, Houston, Tampa metro, the Carolinas, Chesapeake Bay, etc. etc. etc.
Their doom will come eventually too. Whether it's this year, in the 2020's, next century or 1,000 years from now, the clock is ticking.
>>Please keep the emotions out of it people. They are not necessary when discussions are being had about a subject.
While I certainly agree, as an American, I'm pretty damned tired of ignorant people in the general population and in the United States Government (reference Utah Senator Bennett, etc.) repeating this question in the news, in Congress, on weather forums and such. We in South Louisiana give more per capita to this country in the way of seafood, energy and the like than almost any other state. For allowing the drilling for everyone else's oil and gas, canals that crisscrossed our state helped contribute to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion which is a vicious cycle. It's not like this stuff is top secret, it's all out there. And anyone on a weather forum should have an idea. Just the same, we have most of the nation's wetlands. Any of you like to drive cars or run air conditioners? Well we suffer so that you can. As of 2005, the state's rankings out of 50 are as follows:
1st - Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Crude Oil Production
1st - OCS Natural Gas
1st - Revenues generated for the federal government
1st - Mineral revenues of any sort to the federal government
2nd - Natural Gas
2nd - Total Energy from all Sources
2nd - dry Natural Gas Proven Reserves
2nd - Crude Oil Proven Reserves
So I'm just going to stop here and not fight with anyone. I understand that some people are simply hypersensitive (reference PM and bolded preppy comment; yeah I'm a white guy too and pretty anti-PC) and that is a reflection of a politically correct assault and the wussification of America. I understand that there might be questions, but seriously, by May 2007, the question of why rebuild New Orleans has been asked ad nauseum including on this forum. Some people just don't want to understand, troll forums or whatever. But the truth is out there for anyone who really cares.
Steve
Very well put!
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Until we build levees that don't fail under forces below design specs, we cannot form an accurate opinion of the viability of the New Orleans area. It's really as simple as that. It truly was a man-made disaster. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has admitted it.
In addition, efforts must be made to restore the coastal marshes surrounding New Orleans.
When both of those things are done, and New Orleans still isn't viable, I'll be the first to admit it. And I'm a native New Orleanian.
In addition, efforts must be made to restore the coastal marshes surrounding New Orleans.
When both of those things are done, and New Orleans still isn't viable, I'll be the first to admit it. And I'm a native New Orleanian.
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Re: A question about New Orleans...
tallbunch wrote:Everytime I hear news reports of more rebuilding there, I just have one question: Why build there again? This will happen again, I'm sure of it.
A Cat 5 will hit NYC, I'm sure of it. Why do people still live there?
Sorry for the sarcasm but I'm not sure how you can see into the future. Those people should be able to live there. Now I do have issues with them spending my tax dollars to rebuild homes and businesses in high risk areas.
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And I'll just add this... 5 videos every person should see. They are only about 2 minutes each, but they answer they thread starter's question perfectly...
1st video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzaU2fMgN3g
2nd video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqGkWNw6zxI
3rd video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agthVJalL0k
4th video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0PA6WvxgVM
The wetlands... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvGD5fh4iv4
1st video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzaU2fMgN3g
2nd video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqGkWNw6zxI
3rd video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agthVJalL0k
4th video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0PA6WvxgVM
The wetlands... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvGD5fh4iv4
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Derek Ortt
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