Area north of Bahamas

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is a Massive amount of strong convection near the
Bahamas, with a lot of shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[wobblehead]

The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC models are all developing this Bahama low and taking it north into the Northeast coastline.

[HURAKAN]

Just for reference:

[dixiebreeze]

Satellite IR says "Invest" again.

[Thunder44]

Latest HPC surface analysis a 1012mb surface low in NW Bahamas along a surface trough:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

[Stratusxpeye]

The NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC models are all developing this Bahama low and taking it north into the Northeast coastline.

And this is what is expected. Article at accuweather here, Nothing tropical though.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=2

[Thunder44]

From the 2:05 TWD:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N72W TO A WEAK LOW NEAR GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO
NEAR 68W NORTH OF 22N. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF 31N
IN 24 HOURS AND DEVELOP INTO A GALE NORTH OF 32N.

This low might have the small window coming up this evening to into a subtropical system. NHC analysis no fronts and plenty convection firing up well east of the center now and shear is down to 20 - 25kts over the center and decreasing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[rainydaze]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
304 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING
FROM OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY A LOW CLOUD SWIRL NORTH OF
ABACO WHICH HAS REMAINED BASICALLY STATIONARY SINCE THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS CAUSED NORTHERLY FLOW BELOW 10-12K FEET AS SHOWN ON THE
12Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS DRIER AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH PWAT`S AT 1.44".

Miami NWS mentions it, but does not elaborate any further on it as of yet. Also, they are still discounting the low coming out of the Caribbean.

[brunota2003]

Yea, NHC has it labeled as "Invest" on their sat images again...ummm...anyone else having problems with the NRL Site?

[Stormavoider]

You can see a center or circulation northeast of Abaco on this NASA/NSFCloop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Widespread Intense Convection blowing up near the Bahamas
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection has been exploding in this area now.
It is very intense widespread convection with
several major sections of convection.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[Thunder44]

It looks like the low reformed further NE closer to convection. If you see look at early visibles you can see low-level clouds going inward toward the convection blow-up east of Carolina coast:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Also HPC also has 1010mb low in the area around 32N 72W if you click on fronts here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Ship report in the middle of the convection reported winds at 20kts at 10z:

SHIP S 1000 33.50 -71.60 88 143 110 20.0

The only thing is the low appears to becoming extratropical soon. So I don't think TPC will bother with this system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah I know it has a frontal system, in is likely cool core. But it kind of reminds me of the July unnamed system. First of all the LLC is on the southwest edge, in which over the last hour or so a big blow up of convection right over the center. That is tropical in have seen systems become tropical storms that looked like this. Just pointing it out for the record,,,


http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like the low reformed further NE closer to convection. If you see look at early visibles you can see low-level clouds going inward toward the convection blow-up east of Carolina coast:


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Also HPC also has 1010mb low in the area if you click on fronts here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Ship report in the middle of the convection reported winds at 20kts at 10z:

SHIP S 1000 33.50 -71.60 88 143 110 20.0

The only thing is the low appears to becoming extratropical soon. So I don't TPC will bother with this system.

Looks like Aurther(how ever you spell that name) 2002 to me. Yeah I understand it would not be worth upgrading even if it did loss the frontal system and gained a warm core.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[Thunder44]

Latest QS pass this morning doesn't show a closed surface low:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't believe it, 2 interesting May systems. WOW. Yes they do look the same.

Also about the quickscat I would not be so sure of it, clouds are moving very fast. If not closed now it will be soon. But that just shows how Special Andrea was to have had a LLC through out its life.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any ways deserving of any kind of upgrade or not this is turning out to be a impressive May. I don't went to jump the gun on this. I'm trying reasonable.