Thinking Extreme Southern Gulf Next Week

[Berwick Bay]

I understand your point Drezee. Now I have stated, and continue to believe, that a tropical depression is likely in the extreme southern Gulf next week. My general assumption was that the moisture would be provided by the activity in the Southern Carribean. However, I have never been completely sold on this. I think the moisture in some sense will come from down there. However, if you look at the most recent Water Vapor Loops you'll see that the relaxation of shear is allowing thunderstorms to pop up over the Cuban mainland today, and may allow some of the thunderstorm activity from the old Atlantic Trough to creep back west toward the tip of Cuba. So it is possible that if a depression does in fact form near the western tip of Cuba, it may not actually be the same system which is now located in the Southern Carribean. Thus, this particular thread which is focusing on the formation of a depression in the Southern Gulf, no matter what the origin.

[hial2]

Is it possible that the Cuban storms are due to the heating of the day?

[Berwick Bay]

Of course you're right, the Cuban storms are due to the heating of the day. But for the last several days, the zonal shear from west to east has been so strong that they have been unable to form (not able to get enough altitude before carried away by shear). But these storms are a definite sign to me of a lessening of shear. And I expect to see storms begin to appear off the west Cuban coast in the next day or two. The old trough boundary of storms has remained over the Bahamas. But with the relaxation of shear I think some of these storms may creep back west toward western Cuba as the area becomes more rich in moisture.

[skysummit]

Berwick, what is making you believe so much the shear will be relaxing within the next 7 days? There's currently 50 - 80kts of shear across the area you're talking about and there's no sign of it relaxing within your timeframe....not that I can see anyways. The GFS is keeping 200 - 850mb shear pretty darn strong throughout its forecast period. Those storms over Cuba will likely to continue to fire each day, but I don't believe that's a sign of weakening shear.

[Rainband]

Local met just said area of Tropical Moisture and perhaps a weak surface low will move north mid next week and Give Florida some much needed rain

[ROCK]

Berwick, what is making you believe so much the shear will be relaxing within the next 7 days? There's currently 50 - 80kts of shear across the area you're talking about and there's no sign of it relaxing within your timeframe....not that I can see anyways. The GFS is keeping 200 - 850mb shear pretty darn strong throughout its forecast period. Those storms over Cuba will likely to continue to fire each day, but I don't believe that's a sign of weakening shear.

I have to agree. the subtrop jet has not retreated north as in a typical summer pattern. You got some pretty stout shear in the GOM right now. Though it does seem to be decreasing by this map....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[TampaFl]

Local met just said area of Tropical Moisture and perhaps a weak surface low will move north mid next week and Give Florida some much needed rain

Rainband, which local met said that (I watched channel 8 & they had no mention of this), was it Action News (which is pretty good)?

Thanks
Robert

[Rainband]

It was dennis philips

[JonathanBelles]

It was dennis philips

Yes he did state this and he is pretty accurate, 90% of the time.

[Berwick Bay]

Moisture field is increasing across the entire Southern Gulf. Significant shear relaxation in western Gulf, but as some have commented SE Gulf has lagged behind. Still expect to see shower activity begin in coastal areas of west Cuba later today and tomorrow. Believe shear will relax in this area and conditions will become favorable for development of low pressure very near west tip of Cuba. Believe that moisture field will encompass entire southern Gulf from west to east across northern Cuba and into Bahamas. Energy to be drawn from this area and from southern end of trough currently over La.-Miss.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Berwick Bay I hope that low pressure area brings me some
heavy good rain cause I love Rain!!!!!!!!! And
my yard needs it too.

[Damar91]

As long as that shear stays that high, nothing is forming there anytime soon.

[Berwick Bay]

Tropical Moisture continues to be added to the mix in the Gulf of Mexico. A small upper level low has been over La. for a couple of days now. It is expected to head east over the Northern Gulf Coast (Fl Panhandle-Ga area). However, I think it might actually pull a little further south down into the Gulf as it moves east. This small low may actually deflect some of the upper level winds and perhaps (just perhaps) may actually work to lower some of the shear values in the southern Gulf. The NHC expects moisture to be added by Easterly winds from the old trough boundary in the Bahamas into the western Cuba area (which is what I've been saying). So I still think there is reason for concern in the extreme Southern Gulf next week. Here's the clip from the Tropical Discussion earlier this afternoon.

EXPECT TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW TO
ADVECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURRICANELONNY]

BB .HOW OLD ARE YOU?

[Berwick Bay]

Well, Lonny I'm old enough to remember quite a few storms (especially those in the Gulf of Mexico). There was a storm in '85 (Elena I believe). It ventured on a more or less northeasterly type course through the Gulf and then went stationary (almost is if it were lodged or stuck) in the bay waters of the big bend of Fl. Do you know what I mean? This 105 mph hurricane at the time did not move for days. Meanwhile tides and waves were being whipped around the circulation south of the storm into Tampa Bay, which was experiencing prolonged hurricane force type gusts of 75 mph or so. Then Elena began to move. In which direction you say?? Almost due west (with a slight tilt north) back along the Gulf Coast going into Southern Miss. at a severe angle as it moved from the Fl Coastal Waters. Because of this sharp angle, tides weren't as high as you might expect. But there was considerable wind damage in the Gulfport-Bay St. Louis and Slidell areas of Miss and La. You just never know about these Gulf Storms. Stay tuned to your forecasts, but always, and I mean always, keep your guard up! No matter what anyone tells you, we still don't have a real good handle on these creatures.

[Noah]

Seems every bit of rain keeps away from florida, at least sarasota! IS this an unusally dry may?

[JonathanBelles]

May is usually our dryest month, but not this dry.

[HURRICANELONNY]

OK BB. I thought you were a kid. I'm 45. I hate hearing these kids all season that say every cloud is a Hurricane that is going to hit exactly where they live. So now I know your not one of them and will read your posts as others. Happy Hurricane hunting this year and may all stay out of harms way.

[Berwick Bay]

No Lonny, I'm not a kid. In fact there will probably be some areas of disturbed weather from which many will expect to see development, and who knows, I may be more on the skeptical side. Anyway, I like this shear chart that Rock posted on the site a day or so ago. I've been pretty certain that shear has been on the decrease in the Southern Gulf, but some may need something more "scientific". This chart shows a significant decrease throught the Gulf of Mexico. I think that as moisture is added to the area around western Cuba we may well be looking at low pressure next week. Here's the shear chart.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[ROCK]

Be careful with that shear map. It shows tendencies rather than current shear.

Does seem to be decreasing but still stout all through the GOM right now. Increased moisture in the BOC / Cuba for sure given the WV loop. That ULL dipping out of LA could give you FL guys some much need rain......