Invest 90E,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Chacor]

Very likely going to be Alvin here in a few days. What is this, 9 years now with an Epac system forming in May?

It would be eight consecutive years with an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in May, I believe.


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

Slow moving system this will be it seems...

408
WHXX04 KWBC 250519
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90E

INITIAL TIME 0Z MAY 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.2 108.1 90./ 1.0
6 12.2 109.0 273./ 8.4
12 12.4 109.7 279./ 7.1
18 12.5 109.8 303./ 1.6
24 12.7 110.3 300./ 5.5
30 12.9 110.7 300./ 4.2
36 13.1 111.3 283./ 6.2
42 13.1 111.7 273./ 3.9
48 13.2 111.9 289./ 1.8
54 13.0 112.5 251./ 6.1
60 12.4 113.4 236./11.0
66 12.5 113.0 70./ 4.0
72 12.8 112.7 44./ 4.3
78 12.8 112.9 268./ 2.2
84 12.7 113.0 184./ 1.3
90 13.2 112.6 35./ 6.5
96 13.5 112.9 320./ 4.3
102 13.7 113.2 294./ 3.6
108 13.9 113.4 313./ 2.4
114 13.9 113.8 283./ 4.0
120 14.3 113.9 343./ 3.3
126 14.5 114.0 323./ 2.5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is still a Monsoon-Itcz low, but as it forms a cdo near its center. Expect slow development into a tropical cyclone. We will see....

[Chacor]

It looks really good.

[ncupsscweather]

That is does, it seem's to be trying to get it's act together.

[Thunder44]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250949
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look really good.

[Nimbus]

Really strong convection right over the center this morning.
Without visibles it is usually hard to tell about low level details but there appears to be real good inflow. Storm2k should upgrade this to a TD, could be Alvin by the end of the day.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oat_0.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Really strong convection right over the center this morning.
Without visibles it is usually hard to tell about low level details but there appears to be real good inflow. Storm2k should upgrade this to a TD, could be Alvin by the end of the day.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oat_0.html

To be serious I personally think the tropical cyclone watchers at the storm2k are more to the point. In I do in fact listen more to storm2k then nhc. But that is just my choice.

As for the system it doe's look good,,,but remember the Eastern pacific has a super high standard for the upgrade. SO if the LLC is broad it won't be upgraded. Also that is called a monsoon depression.

[HURAKAN]

The QuikSCAT shows a circulation around 12N 108W with winds in the northeast side of 30 knosts.

[drezee]

This thing is about to blow

[KatDaddy]

Alvin on the way. Looking much better.

[Chacor]

The SSTs in this area are ridiculously high, I saw 31C on one of the cyclonephase diagrams yesterday.

[Chacor]

First daily visible:

[HURAKAN]

Why does the EPAC disturbances always have to look to good?!?!?! I think if there was an award for the best looking disturbances in the basins the EPAC would win hands down. It's hard to find a bad looking disturbance. They always have that blossom look to them.

[HURAKAN]

ALVIN, if you hear me, knock twice!!!

[HURAKAN]

25/1200 UTC 11.7N 109.3W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

Looks better than that!!!

[HURAKAN]

If you want to be ALVIN, stay where you are and don't even move a muscle!!!

[x-y-no]

Hey now ... this thing doesn't look bad at all. Even dismissing the rain contaminated quicksat measurements it shows a decent if weak circulation. And given that it isn't moving much, it has a pretty good chance of getting organized before getting decapitated by the jet to the north.

Looks like we've finally got something interesting to watch in the EPAC.

[tailgater]

The upper 2/3rds of this invest look good but it looks like it may have trouble breaking free of the ITCZ.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/223.jpg