Hurricane Alley

[MiamiensisWx]

Keep this fact in your mind. We only contain 35 years of reliable data (with respect to methods for measuring intensities). This is a rough estimate, but it is my best guess. Many storms that were listed as intense hurricanes may have been overestimated. This can skew the historical records. In addition, the reanalysis project has not revised storms beyond 1914. While some historical information may be accurate, there are many unknown factors. For example, large storms may feature weaker pressure gradients; thus, a low pressure of 950 mbar does not necessarily indicate a major hurricane. Damage estimates may not provide an accurate estimate of the maximum one-minute sustained winds. Poor construction must be taken into accounts.

Many variables are overlooked. While Andrew and Camille were Category 5 hurricanes, they moved under different synoptic scales. In addition, wind damage (in some situations) is primarily caused by gusts (see Celia in TX and Wilma in south FL). Satellite estimates are sketchy, and images are not as detailed prior to 1985 or 1990. Take the Indian and Pacific basins as great examples of historical data voids. In a general sense, we don't have a good idea of storm frequency or intensity in those basins prior to 1990 (many storms may have been overlooked). In addition, the databases may contain errors in intensity estimates (high or low). The same dilemmas affect Atlantic historical records.

[bayway]

well... we know exactly what has happened in the past 40 years...
here in Hurricane Alley (MS to AL)

[Opal storm]

IMHO....Hurricane Alley is from Maine to Texas.

[Jevo]

the great thing about "data" is... If you skew it enough it will eventuall support everyones postion.... One thing Ive learned over the years here is that.... before you ever read anyones forecast, argument, or theory...... Look at their tag to see where their from... 75% of the time... the posters location dictates their argument, forecast, and theory...

Just My Honest Opinion

[bayway]

well... whom do you think has been hit by more majors in the past 40?

[Opal storm]

well... whom do you think has been hit by more majors in the past 40?

No disrespect but why does this really matter? A major hurricane can hit ANYWHERE, it doesn't matter who has had the most in the past 40 years.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well we can break it up into criteria perhaps:

Major Criterion: Frequency:
miss, ala, la, which make up the central gulf coast

Major Criterion: Potency (Cat 4-5)
central gulf coast and parts of Fl, parts of Texas,
and atlantic coasts including carolinas

Major Criterion: Surge
Central Gulf Coast,
some parts of Fl and Texas
and Carolinas

Major Criterion: History And
Variable Patterns
Anywhere from Texas to Maine
including all
of the gulf and east coast and
mexico and yucatan and
all caribbean islands etc...

[Jevo]

Again as I stated... data can be skewed to support anyones position....

What do you consider major......

Most deaths??

2005 KATRINA (SE LA/MS) CAT-3 1500 deaths
1969 CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) CAT-5 256 deaths
1972 AGNES (FL/NE U.S.) CAT-1 122 deaths
1966 BETSY (SE FL/SE LA) CAT-3 75 deaths
1999 FLOYD (Mid Atlantic & NE U.S.) CAT-2 56 deaths
2001 ALLISON (SE TX) Tropical Storm 41 deaths

As for the alley... the only one of those to make initial landfall was Camille (which by anyones count is more than enough)and 3/6 werent even "majors" Katrina did not however as stated below from the NHCs report on Katrina

At 6:10 AM CDT (1110 UTC), Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, with sustained winds of more than 125 mph (201 km/h). Katrina also made landfall in St. Bernard parish and St. Tammany parish for a total of three landfalls in Louisiana.

Then again you are picking a timeline that is part of a lull as described by Dr. Landsea

Landsea believes that the current increase in hurricane activity is part of a natural cycle that scientists call the Atlantic multi-decadal mode. Every 20 to 40 years, Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions conspire to produce just the right conditions to cause increased storm and hurricane activity.

The Atlantic Ocean is currently going through an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995 and that has continued to the present. Scientists consider the period prior to that--the years from 1971 to 1994--to be a quiet period of low hurricane activity.

Cheers

[caneman]

In the past 40 years... There has been a 120 mile strech of the US coast that has
by far taken more big direct hits than any other. 5 majors and a cat 2. It's not Florida.
This 120 mile strech is actualy on par with the entire Fla coast (well over 500 miles).
It's the Mississippi Alabama coast. Waveland to Orange Beach.
I may be mistaken, but I belive there is no 120 mile strech anywhere else in the Con.
US that has seen a landfall count like this in the past 100 years. And this all happened
in 40. Yikes.
I would venture to guess that a vast majority of the genral public would guess
SE Fla... and thier last guess would be MS-AL coast.

You can't constitue a hit with a 120 mile swath as the intesity isn't the same from one point to another. That would be like saying since Tampa Bay is 90 miles from the East Coast. that you may as well consider their major impacts our major impact. Further, you can't call Florida a 500 mile swath. Perhaps 250 miles as storms on the East affect those on the West (only 90 to 100 miles away-across land)and visa versa. Obviously not with the same impact. Just a a storm hitting in the North coast 100 miles away from another location on the North coast doesn't create the same impact. Sorry but flawed thinking here.

[HarlequinBoy]

In the past 40 years... There has been a 120 mile strech of the US coast that has
by far taken more big direct hits than any other. 5 majors and a cat 2. It's not Florida.
This 120 mile strech is actualy on par with the entire Fla coast (well over 500 miles).
It's the Mississippi Alabama coast. Waveland to Orange Beach.
I may be mistaken, but I belive there is no 120 mile strech anywhere else in the Con.
US that has seen a landfall count like this in the past 100 years. And this all happened
in 40. Yikes.
I would venture to guess that a vast majority of the genral public would guess
SE Fla... and thier last guess would be MS-AL coast.

You can't constitue a hit with a 120 mile swath as the intesity isn't the same from one point to another. That would be like saying since Tampa Bay is 90 miles from the East Coast. that you may as well consider their major impacts our major impact. Further, you can't call Florida a 500 mile swath. Perhaps 250 miles as storms on the East affect those on the West (only 90 to 100 miles away-across land)and visa versa. Obviously not with the same impact. Just a a storm hitting in the North coast 100 miles away from another location on the North coast doesn't create the same impact. Sorry but flawed thinking here.

The intensity isn't the same yes, and the thinking might be flawed..but it isn't quite the same as your Tampa/FL East Coast analogy, because a storm hitting the Central Gulf can sometimes bring a large surge to that entire 120 mile swath, whereas a storm that hits the east side of FL won't bring a big surge to Tampa.. it's on a different coastline whereas MS-AL isn't. And yes, I know it's easily possible for Tampa to get major impacts from storms that strike the opposite coast but your analogy isn't quite right.. not that I think that MS/AL is Hurricane Alley, I think there are other areas right a higher frequency of strikes, unfortunately MS/AL have taken more hard hits in the last few decades than other places, esp. for such a small coastline.

[Berwick Bay]

A storm from the past--Oct 1893, one of the worst in American History. It came out of the Gulf making a first landfall in SE La. and killing about 2,000 people there. (Don't confuse it with that other storm in 1893 in Ga. and S. Carolina which killed about 2,000 people earlier in the season!). After landfall in La. it veered hard right (late season storm) and raked the entire coastline of Bayway's Hurricane Alley making a second landfall I believe somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola. Devastating storm. Here's the La. write-up.

October 1-2nd, 1893: An unheralded storm of great violence moved from the Gulf across the southeastern U.S. It devastated about 500 miles of the coastline from Timbalier Bay to Pensacola. Settlements along Lake Borgne, the Lower Mississippi, and the islands along the coast from the Bayou Lafourche east to the Chandeleurs saw the brunt of the hurricane. Landfall was between New Orleans and Port Eads on October 1st. Winds of 100 m.p.h. were estimated at Grand Isle and at Pointe a la Hache. High winds were noted as far west as Abbeville. A schooner 4 miles north of Pascagoula reported a pressure of 28.65". At dusk on the 1st of October, hurricane force winds overspread the coast. By 10 p.m., as winds continued to increase, water began covering coastal islands. A gigantic wave then crashed upon the shore of the north end of Grand Isle, destroying everything in its path. Winds went calm as the eye passed overhead between 11 p.m. and midnight. Winds began again in earnest after midnight, then tapered off by dawn. The storm surge was as high as 15 feet in Louisiana bays, 16 feet at Chandeleur Island. The Barataria Bay lighthouse was almost demolished. The Chandeleur Island lighthouse took on a several foot tilt; waves at times washed over the lantern, which was 50 feet above seas level! Severe damage was dealt to the Lake Borgne lighthouse; its metal roof sheared off by the wind. Two hundred survivors sought refuge at the Port Pontchartrain lighthouse, and its female light keeper was publicly recognized. Two thousand people died, 779 from Cheniere Caminanda and 250 at Grand Lake alone. Immense destruction of shipping occurred, islands were stripped of vegetation, and property losses of around $5 million were seen with the storm. Four churches were blown down across the state. In stature, it was considered more than an equal to the 1856 hurricane. One of the survivors was rescued in a makeshift raft off South Pass 8 days later, almost 100 miles from where he began in Cheniere Caminanda. Also of interest, a man named Jean Henriot wrote a poem about the storm. He was a resident of Cheniere Caminanda at the time and left the island to settle in Westwego soon after the storm. The poem was passed on from generation to generation before finally being put in print fully in 1973. Most people local to that section of the state still tell tales of what went on in that storm over a century ago.

Note: The Hurricane of 1893 at Chenière by E. Charles Plaisance, pub. 1981 has the history of the area, a comprehensive report on the damages and the names of the survivors and those who died. The book also compares the hurricane of 1893 to the one that annihilated Last Island August 10-12, 1856 and lists the names of the survivors and those who died at Last Island.

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September 12th, 1897: Hurricane skirted the Louisiana coast near Port Eads, then moved inland

[caneman]

In the past 40 years... There has been a 120 mile strech of the US coast that has
by far taken more big direct hits than any other. 5 majors and a cat 2. It's not Florida.
This 120 mile strech is actualy on par with the entire Fla coast (well over 500 miles).
It's the Mississippi Alabama coast. Waveland to Orange Beach.
I may be mistaken, but I belive there is no 120 mile strech anywhere else in the Con.
US that has seen a landfall count like this in the past 100 years. And this all happened
in 40. Yikes.
I would venture to guess that a vast majority of the genral public would guess
SE Fla... and thier last guess would be MS-AL coast.

You can't constitue a hit with a 120 mile swath as the intesity isn't the same from one point to another. That would be like saying since Tampa Bay is 90 miles from the East Coast. that you may as well consider their major impacts our major impact. Further, you can't call Florida a 500 mile swath. Perhaps 250 miles as storms on the East affect those on the West (only 90 to 100 miles away-across land)and visa versa. Obviously not with the same impact. Just a a storm hitting in the North coast 100 miles away from another location on the North coast doesn't create the same impact. Sorry but flawed thinking here.

The intensity isn't the same yes, and the thinking might be flawed..but it isn't quite the same as your Tampa/FL East Coast analogy, because a storm hitting the Central Gulf can sometimes bring a large surge to that entire 120 mile swath, whereas a storm that hits the east side of FL won't bring a big surge to Tampa.. it's on a different coastline whereas MS-AL isn't. And yes, I know it's easily possible for Tampa to get major impacts from storms that strike the opposite coast but your analogy isn't quite right.. not that I think that MS/AL is Hurricane Alley, I think there are other areas right a higher frequency of strikes, unfortunately MS/AL have taken more hard hits in the last few decades than other places, esp. for such a small coastline.

Yes,

They've had their hits recently but not every storm has affected that entire coastline and in the manner trying to be described. To claim that 120 mile stretch is more of a Hurricane alley than a 120 mile stretch from Melbourne to Miami and West to Tampa thru Naples or Hatteras for that matter is ludicrous. It wasn't that long when Hatteras was being hit that folks up there were calling it Hurricane alley. Look at the whole hostory and it is clear where Hurricane alley is.

[HarlequinBoy]

Are you replying to my post caneman? I said that I didn't think that MS/AL was Hurricane Alley, because I think an extremely large area could be considered Hurricane Alley.

[caneman]

Are you replying to my post caneman? I said that I didn't think that MS/AL was Hurricane Alley.

No, I wasn't. Sorry. Just emphasizing a point about people looking at 5 - 10 - 20 year stertches. This could easily loop into the whole Global Warming debate but not gonna start anything political.

[HarlequinBoy]

Are you replying to my post caneman? I said that I didn't think that MS/AL was Hurricane Alley.

No, I wasn't. Sorry. Just emphasizing a point about people looking at 5 - 10 - 20 year stertches. This could easily loop into the whole Global Warming debate but not gonna start anything political.

Oh, ok, lol! It can be confusing sometimes. Ha..

[Jevo]

A storm from the past--Oct 1893, one of the worst in American History. It came out of the Gulf making a first landfall in SE La. and killing about 2,000 people there. (Don't confuse it with that other storm in 1893 in Ga. and S. Carolina which killed about 2,000 people earlier in the season!). After landfall in La. it veered hard right (late season storm) and raked the entire coastline of Bayway's Hurricane Alley making a second landfall I believe somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola. Devastating storm. Here's the La. write-up.

October 1-2nd, 1893: An unheralded storm of great violence moved from the Gulf across the southeastern U.S. It devastated about 500 miles of the coastline from Timbalier Bay to Pensacola. Settlements along Lake Borgne, the Lower Mississippi, and the islands along the coast from the Bayou Lafourche east to the Chandeleurs saw the brunt of the hurricane. Landfall was between New Orleans and Port Eads on October 1st. Winds of 100 m.p.h. were estimated at Grand Isle and at Pointe a la Hache. High winds were noted as far west as Abbeville. A schooner 4 miles north of Pascagoula reported a pressure of 28.65". At dusk on the 1st of October, hurricane force winds overspread the coast. By 10 p.m., as winds continued to increase, water began covering coastal islands. A gigantic wave then crashed upon the shore of the north end of Grand Isle, destroying everything in its path. Winds went calm as the eye passed overhead between 11 p.m. and midnight. Winds began again in earnest after midnight, then tapered off by dawn. The storm surge was as high as 15 feet in Louisiana bays, 16 feet at Chandeleur Island. The Barataria Bay lighthouse was almost demolished. The Chandeleur Island lighthouse took on a several foot tilt; waves at times washed over the lantern, which was 50 feet above seas level! Severe damage was dealt to the Lake Borgne lighthouse; its metal roof sheared off by the wind. Two hundred survivors sought refuge at the Port Pontchartrain lighthouse, and its female light keeper was publicly recognized. Two thousand people died, 779 from Cheniere Caminanda and 250 at Grand Lake alone. Immense destruction of shipping occurred, islands were stripped of vegetation, and property losses of around $5 million were seen with the storm. Four churches were blown down across the state. In stature, it was considered more than an equal to the 1856 hurricane. One of the survivors was rescued in a makeshift raft off South Pass 8 days later, almost 100 miles from where he began in Cheniere Caminanda. Also of interest, a man named Jean Henriot wrote a poem about the storm. He was a resident of Cheniere Caminanda at the time and left the island to settle in Westwego soon after the storm. The poem was passed on from generation to generation before finally being put in print fully in 1973. Most people local to that section of the state still tell tales of what went on in that storm over a century ago.

Note: The Hurricane of 1893 at Chenière by E. Charles Plaisance, pub. 1981 has the history of the area, a comprehensive report on the damages and the names of the survivors and those who died. The book also compares the hurricane of 1893 to the one that annihilated Last Island August 10-12, 1856 and lists the names of the survivors and those who died at Last Island.

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September 12th, 1897: Hurricane skirted the Louisiana coast near Port Eads, then moved inland

Didnt you say the last 40 years...... isnt that what this whole thread is about...... Why are you quoting 1893??????

[Berwick Bay]

You're right, I knew that we were talking recent history. However, I tend to support Bayway in his point about important impacts along the Miss-Al coast. And I wanted to post an important storm impact from before recent history. I chose the 1893 storm. I thought of choosing the 1906 storm. This stretch of coast seems pretty close to dead on in the middle of the Northern Gulf Coast. Its sort of a bulls-eye for any storm entering the Gulf. One other thing. Its true that Katrina technically made landfall in La. (my homestate). But lets talk about the impacts in neighboring Miss. Can it be compared with the residual effects of any landfalling hurricane in a neighboring county in Fl or elsewhere?? I think not. So Katrina makes landfall in La. (just barely) and a huge part of the entire Miss. Gulf Coast is practically wiped out with hundreds dead there (in Miss.) Hey, if Bayway wants to count Katrina along with others in his Miss-Al group, its okay with me!!

[Ivanhater]

I dont really understand the point of this thread...Anyone can take facts and put them to use for whatever point they are making....Northwest Florida has been hit by 3 major hurricanes since 95...does that make us hurricane alley?

[Blown Away]

Well in the past 15 years the SFL area has had (4) majors and (5) Cat 1-2. The chance of a tropical system affecting the SFL area is much greater than Waveland to Pensacola. Yes the past 40 years have brought many major storms to the N gulf coast.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/Rank.htm

[Opal storm]

I dont really understand the point of this thread...Anyone can take facts and put them to use for whatever point they are making....Northwest Florida has been hit by 3 major hurricanes since 95...does that make us hurricane alley?

Thank you, thought I was alone here.