Props to Berwick Bay.. I'm listening to him from here on out

[johngaltfla]

Way to go! Now give me a good forecast for sailing around the USVI and BVI for the end of next week onwards and I'll be indebted.

That's a first class ob of forecasting!!!

[secretforecaster]

Great Job BB!!!

[caribepr]

Adding to things I love about S2K...when someone is right (and with that list, very impressively right - I like the *feeling* part along with the science - she IS the Mother, after all), everyone who really cares about this crazy thing called weather gives huge kudos, whether they were negative, leery or supportive. What a great way to start what looks to be a really interesting season
Nice work, Berwick.

[rlltex]

Berwick, salutations and continued support from rlltex.

[Thunder44]

Good work, Berwick.

[bubbamills]

How come the Berwick Model failed to predict a Louisiana hit with Barry? Maybe the next one will?

[Bane]

good job. can't wait to see how you do on the next one.

[southerngale]

I was one of those skeptics... kinda thought you were crazy. lol

Good job, Berwick Bay.

[hial2]

Are the Saints going to win the Super Bowl?......MGC

At about the same time that the Easter Bunny comes a-hopping down the trail.....

[Byrd]

Berwick, my congratulations, too, on that remarkable forecast.

Now please use your pipeline to the Weather Gods and find a little storm to send some rain to west central Alabama!

Byrd

[Swimdude]

I find it amusing on the other thread that all the professionals thought he was absolutely insane. Haha, makes an amateur like me proud!

[Ivanhater]

I find it amusing on the other thread that all the professionals thought he was absolutely insane. Haha, makes an amateur like me proud!

Lol, I recall the phrase "wishful thinking" being thrown out by some mets...All respect to them but we dont know everything

[Cryomaniac]

5. A Sixth Sense---Which I think that many of us have but don't fully recognize or put to use.

I certainly agree with you about that, I had a feeling that this storm would become Barry, but frankly I didn't have the balls to post it.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm awaiting the bold "next system in the GOM" later this week outcome...

[skywarn]

Great Call. Congrats.

[wobblehead]

So Berwick, you still holding true to New Iberia to Pascagoula?

[Berwick Bay]

No Wobble, I did not say "New Iberia to Pascagoula". Not at all. That would imply a landfall around New Orleans. No, what I said was that New Iberia, La was my pick city for receiving an impact from an important tropical cyclone this year. I am being as specific as I can. Not a 200 mile stretch of coast, but instead a landfalling tropical system very, very near New Iberia, La. My second, or other pick (and from my point of view with just about equal odds as New Iberia), is Pascagoula, Miss. Like New Iberia, I'm calling for a landfall of an important tropical system very, very, near to Pascagoula. There are reasons for my selection of these cities. I am going to wait to see if my forecast for tropical development in the West-Central Gulf is successful before discussing reasons for my selection of those two cities as important sites in the 2007 season. I made my forecast for these two cities back in Mid-May. I see nothing which would change my mind. Actually, from what I've read from other posters here about drought conditions in the U.S. and the effect upon the position of the Bermuda High, has increased my confidence in calling for landfalls very near one of not both of these cities this year.

[gatorcane]

as others in Florida have said, if you have those Florida Lotto numbers, PM me

Congrats on a great call...

[wobblehead]

No Wobble, I did not say "New Iberia to Pascagoula". Not at all. That would imply a landfall around New Orleans. No, what I said was that New Iberia, La was my pick city for receiving an impact from an important tropical cyclone this year. I am being as specific as I can. Not a 200 mile stretch of coast, but instead a landfalling tropical system very, very near New Iberia, La. My second, or other pick (and from my point of view with just about equal odds as New Iberia), is Pascagoula, Miss. Like New Iberia, I'm calling for a landfall of an important tropical system very, very, near to Pascagoula. There are reasons for my selection of these cities. I am going to wait to see if my forecast for tropical development in the West-Central Gulf is successful before discussing reasons for my selection of those two cities as important sites in the 2007 season. I made my forecast for these two cities back in Mid-May. I see nothing which would change my mind. Actually, from what I've read from other posters here about drought conditions in the U.S. and the effect upon the position of the Bermuda High, has increased my confidence in calling for landfalls very near one of not both of these cities this year.

I can see this possibly occuring in September when the Bh usually relaxes a bit. When you state"important tropical system" I take this to mean a significant hurricane.

[Berwick Bay]

Wobble, to answer your question, most PROBABLY yes it would be a hurricane of considerable magnitude. What I am "seeing" at these locales are serious effects and consequences from landfalling tropical systems. However, I CAN'T RULE OUT that the tropical system might be a tropical storm or only(???) a minimal hurricane. An example would be a storm which drops 40-45 inches of rain on a given locale within 3 days.