HUGE blowup of convection near BOC

[mobal]

Shear!

[skysummit]

Shear!

LOL....no I highlighted the key words

[windstorm99]

Nothing to worry about in the gulf as conditions are very unfavorble for tropical cyclone development.The only place in the next couple of weeks i would watch is the caribbean as upper level conditions appear pretty favorable for something to pop up in the next 10-15 days.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[skysummit]

Why do we keep looking at conditions currently??? We KNOW nothing will happen today, but have you seen what they're forecasted to be in 72 hours? It's a little different then.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why do we keep looking at conditions currently??? We KNOW nothing will happen today, but have you seen what they're forecasted to be in 72 hours? It's a little different then.

I agree.Things can (and usually do) change in a week or two. The shear might still be high in 10 days..but then again it might also be lower. Time will tell. One thing I would not do though is try and rely on long range models for shear trends. Beyond the first few days, they likely do not have a good handle on what the upper-level conditions will be like weeks from now.

[Stormcenter]

Why do we keep looking at conditions currently??? We KNOW nothing will happen today, but have you seen what they're forecasted to be in 72 hours? It's a little different then.

The problem (for those who are looking for action) is that in 72 hours is there may not be anything there by then. You need favorable conditions now while you have something there not in 72 hours.

[skysummit]

Why do we keep looking at conditions currently??? We KNOW nothing will happen today, but have you seen what they're forecasted to be in 72 hours? It's a little different then.

The problem (for those who are looking for action) is that in 72 hours is there may not be anything there by then. You need favorable conditions now while you have something there not in 72 hours.

yea, but who can forecast that? Can you forecast a blob in 72 hours? What's the point of watching something when there's absolutely no chance. I much rather watch areas of supporting conditions than hostile conditions...even if there's nothing there right now.

[Thunder44]

Forget the BOC. Take a look at the MCS coming off the TX coast this afternoon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[windstorm99]

The 2 week forcast by the GFS model actually indicates that the fast upper level winds currently in place in the gulf will be around during the next 10-15 days.The caribbean is about the only area were we might see TS formation in the next week or two as conditions appear more favorable.

[Stormcenter]

The 2 week forcast by the GFS model actually indicates that the fast upper level winds currently in place in the gulf will be around during the next 10-15 days.The caribbean is about the only area were we might see TS formation in the next week or two as conditions appear more favorable.

Good news for GOM residents.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 2 week forcast by the GFS model actually indicates that the fast upper level winds currently in place in the gulf will be around during the next 10-15 days.The caribbean is about the only area were we might see TS formation in the next week or two as conditions appear more favorable.

As I stated earlier, I would not trust these long range models with shear predictions 10-15 day out. Though they can sometimes be right, they can also be wrong too. In the long range, the GFS is probably just about as accurate with shear placement as it is for a snowstorm or a hurricane. It simply will never be spot on beyond a few days out. In this particular instance though, I would agree the shear is too strong in the short term. However, by next week things could easily change (especially if Berwick Bay's prediction comes true). We will just have to wait and see..

[skysummit]

Genesis looking a little better.

[StormTracker]

They're just referring to moisture associated with the weak trough that was once the tail end of Barry - not related to any convection over the BOC...

Well at least we're getting some well-needed rainfall in Miami-Dade & Broward counties as I eluded to earlier this this a.m. from the situation in the BOC(Mets feel free to correct me if i'm wrong)that certain people this morning didn't want to believe!!!

[Swimdude]

That huge blow-up isn't so huge anymore.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Expect another burst of convection over BOC
with all the available moisture...
though i don't know what happens after that

I'll bet we see another burst
of convection within the next
24-48 hours that could be a
pretty signficant burst depending
on the shear conditions, or lessening
of shear.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I am noticing is that the GOM, overall, seems to be "moistening up" a bit. This could very well be the first step in a series of events needed for Berwick Bay's prediction to come true over the next week or two. It will be interesting to watch and see if more ingredients can start coming together in the coming days..

[windstorm99]

Not with 50-60kt windshear in place.

[Frank2]

Some of that convection is here as I type - lots of cloud-to-ground lightning in this area at this time...

[windstorm99]

Interesting the nogaps and the gfs both show windshear lowering across the GOM significantly in a week or so.We'll see.

[Opal storm]

Interesting the nogaps and the gfs both show windshear lowering across the GOM significantly in a week or so.We'll see.

I would keep a eye on the BOC, that seems to be the only place where the shear will be becoming somewhat favorable over the next few days.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif