Area to keep a eye on-Western Atlantic off Florida

[miamicanes177]

does anyone else think this is developing into Chantal?

[Rainband]

no

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't really expect development of this area; but you never know about when or how development will happen. Unless models catch it, but they don't always do. Also I would now say that the area of interest have shifted to 24 north/76. Around the cluster of convection...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

On farther review of satellite, it appears to have northly flow coming down on it from the north...Which is moving it slowly southward. The ULL is centered near 24.8 north/77 west, now the "MLC" or important area to watch for is just east-southeast of the ULL pressure area near the deepest convection at 24.5 north/76-76.5 west. Since theres nothing else to watch just something to watch.

[Bane]

does anyone else think this is developing into Chantal?

nope

[tailgater]

Getting a little more interesting without any T-storms, watch last 4 or 5 frame of movie.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 4java.html
Also some small pressure drops near the Keys while the ULL seems to be disapating somewhat. Shear is low at this time.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html
This is from the 805pm TWD so it's kinda old but it wasn't posted yet.THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WRN EXTENSION OF A W ATLC SFC RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH SELY RETURN FLOW IN THE MID AND W GULF...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE E GULF CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRES CENTER. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS CONFLUENT BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N100W AND AN UPPER LOW OVER SE FLORIDA. THIS
PATTERN IS LEADING TO A DRY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION AIDING IN THE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LOW IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RADAR
DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE REFLECTIVITY
OVER ERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOVING SW TOWARD THE UPPER KEYS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL OVER THE
GULF WITH SFC WINDS ANTICIPATED TO RELAX AS WEAK HIGH PRES
DEVELOPS AND SETTLES IN THE N CENTRAL GULF.

[tailgater]

Early morning visible shows there is a little something at the surface.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... QCIVAa.jpg

[Thunder44]

Early morning visible shows there is a little something at the surface.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... QCIVAa.jpg

I see it. It looks like a very weak LLC moving SW. Key West reporting NE 14mph while winds are reported calm over Western Cuba.

[windstorm99]

It will probably continue to be a naked swirl as it runs into fast upper levels around 30-40kts.

[tailgater]

It will probably continue to be a naked swirl as it runs into fast upper levels around 30-40kts.

Your map shows it under 5-10 knots right now and it's not moving real fast. It doesn't stand much of a chance of development but shear not a problem ATT.

[NDG]

It will probably continue to be a naked swirl as it runs into fast upper levels around 30-40kts.

Your map shows it under 5-10 knots right now and it's not moving real fast. It doesn't stand much of a chance of development but shear not a problem ATT.

Shear is low because the upper level low is sitting right on top of that little surface eddy swirl.

[hurricanefloyd5]

that same low cause a possible downburst wind and weak rotaion onver my house in lake county!!!!!!!!!!!!! IN other words possible wind damage on my street/across the street from my house on 6/8/07:eek:

[hurricanefloyd5]

A broad area of low pressure/ULL over the western Atlantic near 26 north/76.5 west. This area has been forming convection over the last 12 hours. Also this area has shear decreasing to its north of 26 at 5-10 knots. Which case we have to watch it for some slow development...A piece of energy made landfall around 26-27 north into Florida this morning(that area that had the big flare up). If shear stays low tropical cyclones have formed from area's like this.

Since theres nothing else,

that same low cause a possible downburst wind and weak rotaion onver my house in lake county!!!!!!!!!!!!! IN other words possible wind damage on my street/across the street from my house on 6/8/07:eek:

[Thunder44]

It appears to have just been just a little eddy as I can no longer see it on visible imagery.

[hurricanefloyd5]

what dose "LITTLE EDDY" mean?????????

[Thunder44]

what dose "LITTLE EDDY" mean?????????

A swirl of low-level clouds that does really nothing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

oh I thought it was talking about me everyone online for the most part calls me Eddy!!!!LOL

[Recurve]

Near continuous rain, very dark skies, long train of convection moving east to west across the Upper Keys, mainly Key Largo today.

Here's the Keys Weather discussion about the trough/low situation in the straits now:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND THE
EAST-WEST ELONGATED CIRCULATION ALOFT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR OR
A LITTLE EAST OF HAVANA. ANOTHER CIRCULATION APPEARS EVIDENT NEAR
ANDROS ISLAND. MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST SHOWS DEEP NORTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY PAST 200 MB...WHEREAS MORNING
NASSAU SOUNDING SHOWED VERY LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 600
MB WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE UPPER CIRCULATIONS IN
THIS COMPLEX TROUGH HAVE BURROWED DOWN TO AT LEAST 600 MB...ENOUGH
TO STEER TALLER CONVECTION CYCLONICALLY. IT WAS NOTED THAT CONFLUENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW AT 250 MB IS ANALYZED ON THE NORTH SIZE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY JUST TO OUR NORTH. KBYX ECHOES HAVE
APPEARED TO REACH A MINIMUM COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
ECHOES BEYOND 15NM OFFSHORE KEY LARGO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
ISLANDS...10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE REEF. THE UPPER
KEYS HAVE EAST WINDS.

LOOKING THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN 1C WARMER
AT 500MB THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. MIAMI SOUNDING JUST AS MOIST AND NO DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KEYS. CAPE WAS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS NOT ABLE TO
REPRODUCE YESTERDAY`S SITUATION SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER
70S.

ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK POSITIVE FOR RAINFALL...AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER KEYS...IS THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE STRONG POTENTIAL OF
A TOWER CUMULUS LINE LATER TODAY. THIS MECHANISM WILL NOT WORK AS
WELL FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AT LEAST TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
OVER THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY SPREAD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION OFF THE UPPER KEYS MAY HURT SOME INSOLATION WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BEST ALIGNED.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
AT THIS TIME...A PUBLIC ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED TO ADJUST WINDS TO
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT WINDS FROM
ISLAMORADA THROUGH OCEAN REEF TO BE A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE EAST.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER CONFLUENCE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD MAY
KEEP A CHECK ON CONVECTION OVER THAT WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
STRONGLY CONSIDERING DROPPING POPS TO HIGH CHANCE (50 PERCENT) AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT LEAST SAMPLED THE EASTERN STRAITS AROUND
1045Z AND FOUND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WILL
CONTINUE THESE SPEEDS BUT INDICATE A LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST IN THE
DIRECTION ON THE MORNING UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. LESS
LIKELY TO FIND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE NUMEROUS
COVERAGE FOR THE STRAITS CLOSER TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE KMIA-KEYW TWEB
ROUTE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...WILL BE AIDED BY AFTERNOON MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT...ALLOWING FOR COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SHORT LIVED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE WINDS AT KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KT.

PILOTS...PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST AIRMETS AND SIGMETS BEFORE
DEPARTURE.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...DAF
DATA COLLECTION.......M.PARKE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As the upper level low has moved west-southwestward away; overall shear has droped to 5-10 knots over this area. Which the area of interest is near 23.5-24.5 north/76-77 west...Its a long shot but is the area to watch.

[Recurve]

There's an UL low near Havana, turning clearly visible in IR satellite. Convection firing all day in a northern band around 25N, and along the north Coast of Cuba. The rain in Key Largo has been incredible, probably about 5-6" so far today. Very unusually, there is no convection over Miami, Broward is completely sunny. Rain has been confined in one continuous east-west train right around central Key Largo and eastward across the straits to the Bahamas. Later this afternoon began expanding southwestward to the Middle and toward the Lower Keys. Be interesting if more convection develops in the band, seems to be flowing under influence of the ULL.
>> not an expert opinion...and not looking for tropical development here, cause now we've gotten enough rain for a while.