African wave IS a player - 93L Invest

[JonathanBelles]

It looks better than Barry did

[Opal storm]

I don't know, seems a bit too far south.

[Thunder44]

Isn't it a little early in the season for his type of wave?????

Yeah, and I didn't even bother look over there this morning. They look impressive coming off the African coast, then detoriate after moving into the Central Atlantic.

[drezee]

FYI, if you want to see surface cnvergance in action look at this...In the S Caribbean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

by the way...my four year-storm2K.org anniversary is today!

about 10 years from my start on the Storm97 Lowes board when I was known as cat5hurr...

[wzrgirl1]

actually after doing a little research on i found that the two earliest storms that formed were:

1980 Hurricane Allen formed at about 30 W and 11 N on july 31st and affected Texas
1998 Tropical storm Alex formed at about 25 W and 12 N and affected North Carolina

If I did my research right then those were the two earliest I noticed


note: Alex formed on 7/27

[MiamiensisWx]

actually after doing a little research on i found that the two earliest storms that formed were:

1980 Hurricane Allen formed at about 30 W and 11 N on july 31st and affected Texas
1998 Tropical storm Alex formed at about 25 W and 12 N and affected North Carolina

If I did my research right then those were the two earliest I noticed


note: Alex formed on 7/27

Actually, the earliest Cape Verde tropical system formed on July 5. That storm was Hurricane Bertha (1996).

[wzrgirl1]

actually after doing a little research on i found that the two earliest storms that formed were:

1980 Hurricane Allen formed at about 30 W and 11 N on july 31st and affected Texas
1998 Tropical storm Alex formed at about 25 W and 12 N and affected North Carolina

If I did my research right then those were the two earliest I noticed


note: Alex formed on 7/27

Actually, the earliest Cape Verde tropical system formed on July 5. That storm was Hurricane Bertha (1996).

yep someone already corrected me on that.....when i go to unisys and look at the tracks, sometimes they blend into one another....thanks!!

[wxman57]

I made a close-up shot of the disturbance. Can't tell if there's an LLC on satellite, but definitely a mid-level circulation. Won't get another image until 18Z, though.

[SouthFloridawx]

Navy Sat. Pics

This is where I like to look at sat. pics of the eastern ATL. while I wait for the 3 hour updates.

This updates every half hour.

[dixiebreeze]

Waiting for your 18z comments wxman57. When you speak, I listen.

[skysummit]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z SFC MAP OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA ALONG 14W/15W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15-20
KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OR PSN OF THIS
WAVE WITH A LARGE AREA...ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE...OF
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO SOME DEGREE IN QSCAT DATA. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 7N WHICH MAY BE ADDED TO THE
18Z ANALYSIS. SFC OBS...MOSTLY STATIONS OVER AFRICA...CLEARLY
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WITH 24-H PRES DROPS IN THE 2-4 MB RANGE
IN DAKAR AND SURROUNDING CITIES. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-19W.

[wxman57]

Waiting for your 18z comments wxman57. When you speak, I listen.

You'll have to wait a while. We're (wife & I) heading out on the bikes for a 3 hour ride. Stopping at Ruggle's Cafe in Rice Villiage for lunch on the way back. Then we're heading out to some BBQ at a her friend's house. I think I'd rather go to the ballet then a gathering of court reporters "so they can meet me".

[dixiebreeze]

That's ok wxman57, I'll happily wait. Have a good time at the barbecue!

[philnyc]

That wave does look impressive. SAL looks stong to the north, and not too bad in front of it but may inhibit organization once it gets further west.
It will be fun to watch.

Great point about the SAL. They have spelled the death knell for many a disturbance that looked this good as they came off the African coast. Also, SSTs look marginal up ahead of it: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 50.ice.gif
BTW, a number of depressions, storms and hurricanes have formed at 8 degrees north. Although it's weak, there is enough Coriolis effect out there to get it going, especially if it had good mid level spin to begin with as it moved off the African coast.



And I agree, this will be fun to watch. Kee

[AtlanticWind]

Latest Pic http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

[philnyc]

with that said....has a cape verde system ever made it all the way across and affect the CONU so early in the season?

Hi wzrgirl1,
Here is an excerpt from the NHC Hurricane season summary for the 2003 season:

SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DEVELOPED IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON JUNE 10TH...ONLY THE THIRD TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM TO
THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN JUNE SINCE 1967. IT MOVED
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE ONE DAY AFTER
IT FORMED.

And it doesn't say how far east it formed. You'd have to look further. But I would guess that no easterly wave coming off of Africa in June became a hurricane until near the Antilles, if one ever did. It would have to move west-northwest as well; the eastern Caribbean usually has very high westerly wind shear at this time of year that would rip it apart.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Check out its descent rotation; however, gradually its losing much of its convection as it moves westward. I checked out the QuikScat to see the low to mid level circulation, but there is no info. regarding that area at this moment.

[Thunder44]

Some 18z visible and rainbow images:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/vis-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

Still looks impressive for this time of year, but it looks a little drier and less outlfow on the north side of circulation.

[windstorm99]

As noted by the NHC convection has begun to decrease as it continued to move westward but it definately has a very decent mid-level circulation.Persistence is key here.

Here is a recent visible image of the wave...

[AnnularCane]

That is one gorgeous wave.