Bermuda High Position... where will it end up?

[windstorm99]

Good afternoon..

I think its interesting to note that both the EURO and the GFS both show this persistent trofiness we have had the past couple of weeks come to a halt sometime next week.Its usually around this time into early mid july were the bermuda high begins to establish itself.Adrian

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

This may shed some light on it.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know this issue has been addressed somewhat in the past but was unable to find it, but what environmental factors determine the position of the Bermuda High during hurricane season??

<RICKY>

[windstorm99]

The EURO along with the GFS model are building a massive ridge across the atlantic....

Here is the GFS at 168hrs

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOA that is a huge ridge!!!!!!

[windstorm99]

On the lastest GFS model runs it has a major trof setting up and looks like its not going anywere anytime soon.Adrian

[Jevo]

Im going on a limb and saying
Bermuda

[O Town]

OMG Jevo, love, love the picture there.

Oh and by the way that is one serious high pressure ridge setting in, I won't have a problem at all if it stays like that for the season.

[windstorm99]

OMG Jevo, love, love the picture there.

Oh and by the way that is one serious high pressure ridge setting in, I won't have a problem at all if it stays like that for the season.

This will only last for a short while as a major trof will set up during the next few days.

[TheRingo]

where do you see the trof setting up?
Thanks

[Kerry04]

So what will happen to storms once this major trof sets up?

[ftolmsteen]

The season is young, and seeing the ridge that strong, pointing future storms in the general direction of Florida & the GOM (again) looks almost certain this year. I realise upper air currents still are not condusive for any development for a while, but it makes me wonder if the season gets in full swing by mid July.

[TheRingo]

don't think it will be long until upper level winds become favorable. These 300mb winds seem to be shifting to easterlies in the coming days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml" target="_blank

[Toadstool]

I hope the high gets strong enough to build down to the Falklands... that would be best, and a nice change of pace really.

[Emmett_Brown]

Here is the GFS 13 days from now... could be wildly inaccurate due to the time frame, but since we are getting deeper into the season, perhaps it will give us a clue to the evolving position of the high. Shows a fairly strong W Atlantic ridge bridging into the SE with the 1020mb isobar nosing into GA:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif

With talk of MJO and lowered shear in July, the high position could become more important soon.

[cycloneye]

BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF
70W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE CALLED THE BERMUDAS-AZORES
HIGH...A SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE SUMMER TIME. HURRICANES THAT FORM IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TEND TO CIRCLE THIS HIGH.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Above is the discussion at 8:05 AM EDT from TPC about this theme.

[O Town]

Looks like whatever happens to develop will be thrown into Florida or go into the Gulf. No re curves like last year.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

[windstorm99]

Looks like whatever happens to develop will be thrown into Florida or go into the Gulf. No re curves like last year.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

I think its still a tad to early to make that call.

[O Town]

Well in the 8:05 TWD they refer to it as the Bermuda high and thats its semi-permanent. I would say its pretty much set up where its going to be for awhile, aside from some minor movements.

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like whatever happens to develop will be thrown into Florida or go into the Gulf. No re curves like last year.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

I hope you are wrong............