New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

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Frank2
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#21 Postby Frank2 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:08 am

as far as putting wording like this in there DISCO's big deal the only people that read it are weather geeks who should be able to handle it without alarm, just by watching things more closely, the general public does not read that, they listen to the weather man on channel whatever.


Well, not true, because the OCM's read the discussions, and, they relay that to the public - including the above NWS comment, so, the forecaster who wrote that might get cautioned over making statements like the one above, since it appears to be driven more by fear than anything else...
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Derek Ortt

Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#22 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:42 am

I am concerned by some here who believe that the only people reading weather products are those who follow weather closely.

This is far from the truth. In fact, during crisis times, most people that read the products are those who seldom read them. A statement like this, IMO, should have been tempered somewhat
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#23 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 9:53 am

It seems this is just a "its that time of the the year again" type warning, though I dont think the forum they used was appropriate. There is nothing to suggest that NOLA has any real threat on the horizon, other than what is typical this time of the year.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#24 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:00 am

dwg71 wrote:It seems this is just a "its that time of the the year again" type warning, though I dont think the forum they used was appropriate. There is nothing to suggest that NOLA has any real threat on the horizon, other than what is typical this time of the year.


...and that's probably why they said "NOTHING IS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON"
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#25 Postby canetracker » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:02 am

I agree it should have been tempered a bit, but I am not shocked by it. My only question is how can the forecaster write with certainty that the Bermuda Ridge is going to be established this soon?
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#26 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:39 am

I fully support the national weather service. I expect 2007 will go down as one of the worst seasons in the history of the USA. SST's are shockingly high, near record levels, and wind shear is light.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#27 Postby Frank2 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 10:51 am

As the vegetable grower would say, "Lettuce hope not..."

As we found out in '06 - there are many things that make or break an active seasonal forecast - not just high SST's, which are per usual most every summer in the tropics...

Over the years, I've found that "low shear" or "high shear" is just a relative term, and is very dependent each day on ULL's, troughs, jet stream movement, etc.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#28 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:15 pm

I think they were just reminding people that hey...it's still hurricane season and we need to be alert about that.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#29 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Jul 05, 2007 1:22 pm

cpdaman wrote:is the crux of the differnce that masters thinks these troughs will penetrate further south than they actually will and that in fact they are not effecting as low latitudes yet as they did last year? he does strike me as a bit of a ...well.....flip flopper



well i have been thinking that for some time now... just my opinion..i just cant seem to get a feel on that guy... something about him rubs me wrong...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#30 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 05, 2007 1:26 pm

They are probably referring to the Upper Level High that GFS moves from east of Florida into the Gulf in the long range forecast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#31 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:30 pm

Funny, I basically told a group of major oil company executives the same thing on my Thursday morning briefing. I'm quite concerned that the pattern which has been in place for the past month -- weak trof over Texas, weaker Bermuda High -- would steer any developing hurricane northward toward LA/MS once it reached the Yucatan Peninsula if the same pattern were in place by August. And I don't see any sign of the pattern changing. It's a very bad setup for the central Gulf coast. But patterns CAN change. We had a major pattern change the 3rd week of August in 2006 that saved the U.S. from any hurricanes (protective trof off east U.S. Coast developed, combined with sinking air and wind shear across Gulf/Caribbean from El Nino).

So I'm in total agreement with the New Orleans NWS on this one and I see nothing wrong with them sharing their thoughts with other NWS offices in the AFD. Remember, this is not a publicly-disseminated document, though the public can find it if they look for it. Even so, I still see no problem with the public seeing their thoughts.
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#32 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:08 pm

I don't think it's much different than when the NWS Houston still say something like: 'the wave trekking across the mid-Atlantic will have to be watched closely as steering patterns next week may steer any tropical developments towards the Texas coast'. They do this quite frequently, actually.

BTW, just to clarify, this is not in reference to anything out there now, this is just an example of what they will typically say...
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#33 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:07 pm

I agree with the New Orleans NWS
A building pattern does indeed seem
to make LA/MS vulnerable to
hurricanes....

The New Orleans NWS made the right
choice in mentioning this.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#34 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:19 pm

isn't the new orleans weather service talking about a stronger high building west through the atlantic and not a weaker bermuda high?

AS BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARD. WHILE THIS MAKES FOR EASY ROUTINE FORECASTING...OUR
VULNERABILITES TO TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF JULY
Last edited by cpdaman on Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#35 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:23 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:I fully support the national weather service. I expect 2007 will go down as one of the worst seasons in the history of the USA. SST's are shockingly high, near record levels, and wind shear is light.

Let's not get carried away - SST's are not near record levels (they are only a little above average), and shear changes quickly. Ultimately it depends on storm track.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#36 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:55 am

dwg71 wrote:It seems this is just a "its that time of the the year again" type warning, though I dont think the forum they used was appropriate. There is nothing to suggest that NOLA has any real threat on the horizon, other than what is typical this time of the year.


Amen
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#37 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 07, 2007 1:06 am

wxman57 wrote:Funny, I basically told a group of major oil company executives the same thing on my Thursday morning briefing. I'm quite concerned that the pattern which has been in place for the past month -- weak trof over Texas, weaker Bermuda High -- would steer any developing hurricane northward toward LA/MS once it reached the Yucatan Peninsula if the same pattern were in place by August. And I don't see any sign of the pattern changing. It's a very bad setup for the central Gulf coast. But patterns CAN change. We had a major pattern change the 3rd week of August in 2006 that saved the U.S. from any hurricanes (protective trof off east U.S. Coast developed, combined with sinking air and wind shear across Gulf/Caribbean from El Nino).

So I'm in total agreement with the New Orleans NWS on this one and I see nothing wrong with them sharing their thoughts with other NWS offices in the AFD. Remember, this is not a publicly-disseminated document, though the public can find it if they look for it. Even so, I still see no problem with the public seeing their thoughts.


Wxman57 I think you failed to mention something very important about 2006. We really didn't have ANY significant hurricanes in 2006 to be protected from in the GOM to begin with even before the pattern change in August 2006. The season was below average to average from day one throughout the tropics despite the early June storm. The conditions were never ideal throughout the season. The bottom line is we first of all you need to see development before worrying about something threatening the Central GOM or anywhere else in the tropics. As of right now despite the current pattern things are looking pretty quiet as would be expected. I'm not saying there won't be any Carribean or GOM storms but only saying the Central GOM is no more vulnerable than anywhere else in the tropics right now and to say this in early July is a little bit premature. Hey this just "my" opinion so take it with a grain of salt.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#38 Postby MGC » Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:50 pm

I don't see anything wrong in there observation that things could be that way by Aug/Sept. Isn't that their job to keep the American people advised of possible hurricane strikes?.....MGC
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#39 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:13 pm

I agree MGC. I just thought it was a bold move from such a conservative group. I was surprised when I first read it, but after a while, I was actually impressed.

At least we should be quiet for the next week, maybe longer.
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Re: New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

#40 Postby Jagno » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:39 pm

After caring for these nice people (Katrina victims) for 30 days, pulling glass and debris from their feet and just seeing the sheer hell that these folks were put through I hope that some met screams to the top of his/her lungs if that is what it takes to get our neighbors to GET OUT the next time a storm threatens their area and to at least plant the seed towards some type of preparations for such an event. For many a simple change of clothing would have been nice. I just don't see where this forcast is a direct threat to anyone in particular. JMHO
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