Possible low off east coast of Florida

[DanKellFla]

Yup, it is obvious. This could get interesting if it keeps up. At least the storm is moving in the right direction, away from land.

[cpdaman]

excuse me but what the heck is going on 100 or so miles east of melbourne is this just the radar playing a trick (albeit the best one i've seen in a while)


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

[artist]

that's my question - looked at all the local discussion , the NHC's etc. and nothing there about it. All I know is it it a very obvious closed low. Will it persist and what about the mid and high levels - will they come together as well? What are the conditions - anyone know?

[artist]

is anyone else having problems with the ghcc site extracting images with lat. and long.? I am getting some weird image with different coordinates.

[cpdaman]

well the outflow boundary from the line of storms off the east coast probably will not help the 2'nd low that much

if infact it is a low (looking at the visible it's difficult to imagine one forming right next to the broad low off daytona) it may be a radar "trick"

[MiamiensisWx]

excuse me but what the heck is going on 100 or so miles east of melbourne is this just the radar playing a trick (albeit the best one i've seen in a while)


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

That is a high-based dry slot. It contains a weak convective cap, which reduced precipitation near the center of the mass. Its rotation is a mid-level eddy. It is NOT a closed low. This is very typical when another broad sfc low (actual sfc circulation) is developing in the vicinity (over Daytona Beach).

that's my question - looked at all the local discussion , the NHC's etc. and nothing there about it. All I know is it it a very obvious closed low. Will it persist and what about the mid and high levels - will they come together as well? What are the conditions - anyone know?

The actual sfc low is rotating over Daytona Beach. It is a broad circulation. The "eye" east of Melbourne is a high-based dry slot. It is not a sfc low. I mentioned that shear has decreased over the system, and other systems have developed under more inhospitable conditions.

[miamicanes177]

We'll see if it's worth even a few seconds of the hurricane centers time in the TWO. I think it should at least get 1-2 sentences.

[artist]

actually I am talking about the low to the east of Melbourne.

Should have read more - now I think I understand but there for a little while it was extremely apparent off Melbourne more towards the Bahamas. There appears to be bands as well over the state.

[MiamiensisWx]

actually I am talking about the low to the east of Melbourne.

That "low" is a mid-level rotation (eddy). It's not a sfc low. It should be short-lived. Its "eye" is an area of lower precipitation. I answered your question in a previous post.

[artist]

thanks again - can you tell I'm not quite all here today?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 052119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

It has now the attention of the NHC folks.

[Nimbus]

Correct me if I am wrong but I think the forecast calls for the low over Daytona Beach to move northeast over the warm gulfstream and get picked up by the approaching trough.

We don't need any TS's in the gulf this time of year the afternoon thunderstorms are beginning to become regular.

Anyone think this system could reach TD status before it gets absrbed by the front?

[Aric Dunn]

anything is possible....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Correct me if I am wrong but I think the forecast calls for the low over Daytona Beach to move northeast over the warm gulfstream and get picked up by the approaching trough.

We don't need any TS's in the gulf this time of year the afternoon thunderstorms are beginning to become regular.

Anyone think this system could reach TD status before it gets absrbed by the front?

Needs to consolidate and make up its mind where it wants to start..But yes

[jrod]

The dry air to north of appears to be on the way out from what I see so that will have to help out this area's chances. Wind shear, proximity to land and lack of a LLC is at is has to overcome. I would not say it is impossble for development.

[Cyclone1]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007070512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=042hr

Interesting?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I give this a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression.
I would give it a 70-80% chance if this were August,
but since July has extra dry air and shear that sneaks
up on systems I bump it down to 40%:
Here are my reasons:
1. Convection has showed some persistence
2. Convection is rather intense in some spots
3. Shear is lessening in the area
4. There is a lot of moisture in the area
5. Sea surface temperatures are high in the area
near the Gulf Stream

[caneman]

18z GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

the only thing is that .. its not very well defined. its pretty difuse.. if it can get off shore then we may see somethin

[Aric Dunn]

hmmmm
http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_main.php

interesting.. just that there is nothing there....