2006 Pattern Repeat?

[MWatkins]

Mike,

I was told climatology had nothing to do with 96L going poof...

Climo is always misconstrued. It's nothing more than stats. The reason 96L poofed was because of the environment around it. Sure, climo would suggest that that was the most likely scenario, but it was not the reason for it.

Tropical storms rarely develop in the deep tropics in late June because these conditions are almost always present in late June:

1. Stable air
2. Hostile upper winds
3. Strong trade winds

96L did not develop because of:

1. Stable air
2. Hostile upper winds
3. Strong trade winds

Stuff doesn't develop down there at this time of year. The system followed the climatology script perfectly...

MW

[dwg71]

When does Gray update his figures??

[cycloneye]

When does Gray update his figures??

3rd of August.

[cajungal]

The season doesn't really get going until the end of July.The first storm of 2004 developed late this month.Give it a few more weeks

I totally agree with you too, Sky, it only takes one! Back in 1965, Betsy was the only second named system of the season, and she did not hit SE Louisiana until September 9th! And in 1969, Camille did not hit until August 17th, so only the 3rd named system. 2004 did not get active until late July and it was anything but quiet esp for Florida!

[MGC]

Personally, I hope this EC trough stays in place at least through October. Then I'd like a ridge to build over the EC and keep the cold away. I know its only a dream. I has been a rather remarkable strech this pattern has been in. Will it continue into August and September? God only knows. I hope he has some mercy on us after 2004 and 2005......MGC

[AnnularCane]

Personally, I hope this EC trough stays in place at least through October. Then I'd like a ridge to build over the EC and keep the cold away. I know its only a dream. I has been a rather remarkable strech this pattern has been in. Will it continue into August and September? God only knows. I hope he has some mercy on us after 2004 and 2005......MGC

Personally, the last thing I'd want after months of 90-degree heat and humidity is for the cooler weather to be kept away!

(I can't seem to find the smiley I wanted to use. Oh well.)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking at conditions in the Atlantic in late June and early July…and using that to forecast the peak of the season…would be like saying the Cubs will finish in last place because they are wearing the same uniforms as they did last season.

The Cubs will probably finish in last place anyway…but not because of the uniforms.

There is a reason that tropical systems usually don’t develop in the deep tropics in June/July. There are 2 big ones, actually:

1. A relatively stable atmosphere
2. Hostile upper level winds

96L dissipated because climatology said it would more than any other reason…

Had there been an argument about the steering pattern being like 2006 noting the persistent EC trough that we have had in the last several weeks…I may have bought that. The latest HPC 8 to 14 day outlook suggests this ridge in the west/trough in the east pattern will persist through the next 2 weeks…

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.03.gif

I am not a huge fan of seasonal forecasting…but given the macro conditions of a warm Atlantic and at least a neutral (if not cold) ENSO event, all signs point to an active peak season…although we will probably not see 2005 happen again (hopefully not, anyways).

Now where those storms will eventually track is beyond my ability to project in early July…but no, I do not at all believe this year will be a repeat of last year.

Just for fun…I would suggest those who are interested go look at the last 100 years or so of hurricane maps…it is virtually impossible to find two identical seasons in terms of both track and frequency. The Atlantic is just too variable year over year…

MW

When MW speaks we all should listen. Period.

[southerngale]

The season doesn't really get going until the end of July.The first storm of 2004 developed late this month.Give it a few more weeks

I totally agree with you too, Sky, it only takes one! Back in 1965, Betsy was the only second named system of the season, and she did not hit SE Louisiana until September 9th! And in 1969, Camille did not hit until August 17th, so only the 3rd named system. 2004 did not get active until late July and it was anything but quiet esp for Florida!

You quoted canegrl04. I believe you clicked on the wrong "quote" button.

Here's the post I think you meant to quote...

We all remember when Andrew formed. Busy or not, it just takes one.

[HUC]

53 years i watch the weather here in Guadeloupe...We never wory about hurricanes,before the first week of August(a great,and terrific exeption was Santa Ana 26th of july in 1825;but was an exeption!),and the hurricane month is by far for us september. So i enjoy the fair weather,despite the intense drought we are experiencing now.

[flashflood]

When MW speaks we all should listen. Period.

Actually MW is one of my top posters for my S2K met forecast consensus. I usually take the thinking patterns of the mets here such as WXMAN57, Derek Ortt for example. Then add a few expert non mets to the equation and I get a pretty good forecast that I use as an alternative to the NHC for work.

MW mentioned about the Atlantic being too variable to compare seasons. This is exactly what happens all the time. And by that I mean every season is different and hold it's own surprises. In 04, a lot of us thought that we'd never see a season like that again. Then came '05, need I say more. In 06, most thought it's going to happen again. Seems like the pattern here is the Tropics are trying to play tricks on us, if you will. Just when you think you've seen it all, out of nowhere an unexpected turn of events changes everything.

[Sanibel]

Well, if we see more convection-less systems not form or other failures of systems to fully develop we can assume a similar environment to 2006 exists. Watching now to see if this happens. You can't deny that two early systems followed by dry conditions IS analogous to 2006. Especially if the ITCZ is held south by a strong Atlantic pattern combined with disruptive westerlies in the upper level in the storm belt.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I said this in another thread a little bit ago, and I'll say it here. If the steering pattern is similar to 2006, I am actually NERVOUS.

What? 2006 was a year of either recurving, non-threating hurricanes, or weak tropical storms hitting land. But don't forget about the monster-that-could-have-been Ernesto.

If Ernesto had followed the same path in a non-El Nino year when conditions were more ideal (ala when Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Emily, and Wilma hit the Caribbean), I think we would be talking more about how destructive Ernesto was than how lucky we got with it. With the same path, it could hit Cuba as a C2 or C3 hurricane, weaken to a C1 or maybe strong tropical storm over land, but then slowly get its act back together before striking southern Florida as a C2 hurricane. After weakening to a tropical storm briefly over land, it re-intensifies to at least a C2, maybe C3 hurricane before striking NC.

I think a hurricane might take a path very similar to Ernesto this year, only with these more favorable conditions. It may be the only hurricane to hit the U.S. this year, but it will leave scars along its path that won't soon be forgotten.

-Andrew92

[storms in NC]

Ernesto was just a rain maker for NC. We had a little wind but nothing to write home about. But it could have been worse. I still can't believe that it made it up though the middle of Fl to NC. If he would have stayed over water and not gone over Fl NC would have been in trouble. For I believe that it would have been a bad bad boy. I would think a cat 4. He wasn't giving up.

We are now in a new weather pattern here in NC. our humidity is so high and it has been hot. Not as hot as other places. But this gives the waters to warm up even more.

As far as I can see there will be more homemade storms than CV JIMO. And more in the Gulf than the EC.

But in a few weeks you will be looking at a few to follow.

One thing I have looked for or heard about is the Bhigh. Where will it end up at. and the ridge this year?Would like to see that. That will let us know how the paths will take to some what.

As you see I am still learning here. So don't hit me to bad.

Deb

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris also had potential last year if he would have stayed together. He could have been a real mess in the GOM.

[Andrew92]

Chris also had potential last year if he would have stayed together. He could have been a real mess in the GOM.

That is very true. I nearly forgot about Chris when I made my "forecast" for where a hurricane will strike. However, Ernesto was also forecast to do the same thing several times that Chris was forecast to. We saw how THAT worked out! I think based on that, the GOM should watch out, but that the East Coast is just a little more likely to get hit this year. If the setup is indeed like last year's, sans El Nino.

-Andrew92

[Sanibel]

I said this in another thread a little bit ago, and I'll say it here. If the steering pattern is similar to 2006, I am actually NERVOUS.

What? 2006 was a year of either recurving, non-threating hurricanes, or weak tropical storms hitting land. But don't forget about the monster-that-could-have-been Ernesto.

But is that good or bad? If 2006 repeats then the steering pattern is irrelevant because no strong storms were able to form. I would say bad because probability dictates that, since no strong US-landfalling storms formed in 2006, it is more likely they will in 2007.

If Ernesto had followed the same path in a non-El Nino year when conditions were more ideal...

My problem with that is the so-called great "El-Nino" was hardly that at all. It had no classic monster storms hitting California. Florida was predicted to have a wet, cold winter because of it but actually had a record drought mild winter. What I would be concerned with is the theory that hurricanes find drought areas. Last year Cuba had a record drought and Ernesto found it. This year Florida has had a bad drought as well as areas in the SE that can ill-afford a powerful landfaller.

Chris also had potential last year if he would have stayed together. He could have been a real mess in the GOM.

Chris is a perfect example of the 2006 effect. If he happened the year before he would have been a real disaster. He was gearing up for a run north of the Antilles up across the Keys and into the GOM. Instead he vaporized in prime formation waters. This is why I say convection-less circulations that dry out and dissipate (like Chris) are important to note this year.

[dwg71]

Sanibel, I agree 95%. The only thing I question is "since no strong US-landfalling storms formed in 2006, it is more likely they will in 2007". I dont think one has anything to do with the other.

Every day we have without formation is another day closer to Nov 30th.

This is day 40 of 183 in the Hurricane season of 2007 - 22% over.

[cpdaman]

Sanibel

"same steering conditions" this year minus the EL nino of last year (and the high shear associated with it ) that sheared out chris and ernesto and alot of other impulses from forming is what some are arguing for, and seem anxious about
also i imagine if there is a trough to drive the storms NW into the east coast or from caribean into gulf that will be the big problem.

the only saving grace would be if there is a weakness around 60W which would recurve these storms well east like last year. that is the wild card i believe

[Andrew92]

Sanibel, I see your point, but I never claimed the El Nino to be a major one. It was just strong enough to cause shearing to keep Ernesto weak until it emerged from Florida, as well as anything trying to hit the U.S.

I also think by the time winter hit that the El Nino was dying out, if not already dead. Mets, help me out on this one because I could be way off the mark.

That is not to say that the mountains had an effect on Ernesto; they definitely did. But if this even minor El Nino is taken out, the system may have developed a little faster in the Caribbean, and possibly caused much worse problems down the road.

-Andrew92

[Sanibel]

If you look at the ITCZ Atlantic visible image we have what looks like a serious dry SAL airmass driving way south into the hurricane belt exactly like last year. Combine this with a very dry Gulf/Caribbean, as well as weak EPAC, and it looks like we have the same pattern as last year. The pros on this site are probably wiser than me because they know this could all change in a flash and next week the ITCZ will be filled with convection-laden systems - but I think that won't happen for all the reasons already given. As far as the Nino shearing of last year - this year may prove that it wasn't really due to the weak Nino but other global patterns instead - since this year has no such Nino but does have the same dry/disruptive pattern and shear.


On a side note: The 3 systems that crossed India in the monsoon and formed in the Arabian Sea to go on to hit Yemen and Iran could be a 'hot spot' for formation this year.