Large area of storms off of Hatteras...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks very impressive...oceanic heat content is high
and if shear lessens I would expect a tropical depression
and Tropical Storm Chantal potentially in 2-3 days.

Stalled fronts tend to produce tropical cyclones this time of year.

[storms in NC]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Stalled fronts tend to produce tropical cyclones this time of year.

this is very true this is how Beryl came about. But I don't think if this did do any thing it would be more than a rain maker. Unless it droped down to the south then turned around and came back up the coast to which it can or out to the fish. We will have to see what happens in a few days.

OT here how can I show on line?

[O Town]

OT here how can I show on line?

I dunno whats up with that, it just did it automatic for me. Maybe something in your settings you have to adjust. I would PM a mod about it.

[BigA]

It looks like shear will not be an inhibiting factor during the next thirty-six hours, http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

We'll have to see if the convection can remain intact, and if some surface low pressure can spin up.

[storms in NC]

It looks like shear will not be an inhibiting factor during the next thirty-six hours, http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

We'll have to see if the convection can remain intact, and if some surface low pressure can spin up.

See what the night time air does to it when it cool down a little. But with humidity I don't think it will cool much.

Deb

['CaneFreak]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks very impressive...oceanic heat content is high
and if shear lessens I would expect a tropical depression
and Tropical Storm Chantal potentially in 2-3 days.

Stalled fronts tend to produce tropical cyclones this time of year.

I have to disagree on the oceanic heat content being high...warm water does not go very deep here....only down to about 50 meters or so...you need to supply links with your comments to back up what you are saying...dont just say random stuff with no links to what you are looking at...just trying to help you be a better forecaster...you have to have scientific backup for what you are saying...its called the scientific method...it was taught to me in 6th or 7th Grade Science class. But really, just provide links to back up your statements...thanks...here's my links...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atd26.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7190at.jpg
Sincerely,

'CaneFreak

['CaneFreak]

Oh...btw...I am giving this about a 10 % chance to develop...looks like this t-storm complex will probably scoot off to the northeast before ever becoming any kind of threat. Low-level steering fields are from east to west and are quite strong at about 20 to 30 knots....this t-storm complex is headed outta here...
Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

'CaneFreak

[Brent]

Looks very impressive, but I think it's headed out to sea.

[Eyewall]

well ive been looking at the visible and there dosent look like theres a low at all
just your basic inflow
little bit of convergence at the surface.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html
just something to watch

[storms in NC]

Looks very impressive, but I think it's headed out to sea.

Hey Brent! Hows it goes?
Anyhows I think it could drop down to the ESE if any thing. The troff over the US is moving at a good clip to the NE. It could be picked up at the tail end of the troff.JIMO

Deb

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks very impressive...oceanic heat content is high
and if shear lessens I would expect a tropical depression
and Tropical Storm Chantal potentially in 2-3 days.

Stalled fronts tend to produce tropical cyclones this time of year.

I have to disagree on the oceanic heat content being high...warm water does not go very deep here....only down to about 50 meters or so...you need to supply links with your comments to back up what you are saying...dont just say random stuff with no links to what you are looking at...just trying to help you be a better forecaster...you have to have scientific backup for what you are saying...its called the scientific method...it was taught to me in 6th or 7th Grade Science class. But really, just provide links to back up your statements...thanks...here's my links...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atd26.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7190at.jpg
Sincerely,

'CaneFreak

I know the scientific method.

I do, however, appreciate your attempts to add weather
knowledge to me.

I made a prediction. Your link provided the backup.
So I guess there is not enough heat content.

[cpdaman]

point 1. no body has to put links to back up there statements i believe that is optional, but helps to support points

also the temperatures at the surface are warm but the heat content being high was misleading and the wrong term to use IMO, all you would have had to say is the heat content is sufficient or high enough.

but let's be easy on people when telling them

[TPACane07]

I went to the NDBC site for the East Coast region (Carolinas), and to me, there is a curious lack of buoys to see data, once you go 100 miles offshore. One buoy drifted as of 2/07.

Anyone else notice this??

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

Looks like the area is starting to go poof as we speak.

[Bane]

it is definitely weakening.

[punkyg]

It was pretty good looking earlier, but we all knew this was going to happen.
back to watching the carribean.

[cpdaman]

punkyg what do you see in the caribean? or are you just kinda watchin it out of boredom

[storms in NC]

it is definitely weakening.

this happens in the evening time then will flair back up in the Am. I for got what they called it. But it is holding together nicely. If it does I think they will put it as a interest.JIMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[harmclan]

his happens in the evening time then will flair back up in the Am. I for got what they called it. But it is holding together nicely. If it does I think they will put it as a interest.JIMO

Diurnal Maximum

[SouthFloridawx]

Not much to speak of from the TPC...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABUNDANT STABLE AIR LIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE ALONG 28N W OF 47W AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE
ONLY AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF THE SERIES OF
TROPICAL WAVES...IS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE N OF 32N W OF
74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND
UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC. RIDGING ALOFT IS ALSO THE
THEME IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA ALONG 25N TO 43W. AN
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...BUT LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED AT THE MOMENT. IN FACT...THE LARGE SHIELD OF
SUBSIDENCE IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA.