Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#21 Postby storms in NC » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:10 am

Pearl River wrote:
Remember NO didn't flood until AFTER the storm.
This is not true. This has been a big falsehood about the storm. The first Flash Flood warning was issued around 0815 on the Monday morning for levee breaching. The news media did not report it until the next morning. Drive up I-55 from Slidell to Meridian and you can still see a lot of wind damage to buildings and trees today. Also, alot of what has been touted as storm surge damage, eyewitnesses have said buildings went down long before the surge came in.


This is true but remember that Slidell was on the east side of hurricane.
There was very bad wind damage in Amite and Franklinton. Bogalusa was the worse. The whole town looked like a bomb had gone off there. and there was no flooding there
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:56 am

Pearl River wrote:
Remember NO didn't flood until AFTER the storm.
This is not true. This has been a big falsehood about the storm. The first Flash Flood warning was issued around 0815 on the Monday morning for levee breaching. The news media did not report it until the next morning. Drive up I-55 from Slidell to Meridian and you can still see a lot of wind damage to buildings and trees today. Also, alot of what has been touted as storm surge damage, eyewitnesses have said buildings went down long before the surge came in.


Correct. We never heard anything from places other than those accessible from the CBD and French Quarter (where the media was centered) until after the storm. Places like the 9th Ward, Chalmette, etc. had already flooded by levee breaches and overflowing.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#23 Postby TampaSteve » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:18 am

Berwick Bay wrote:Oh, but one other problem with the "Cat 4 type Charley scenario" affecting Tampa, and that is you probably would not have gotten a Cat 4 type surge with Charley. I know that Charley's small size limited surge down near Punta Gorda, but I think the big reason was its angle of approach to the coast. The storm had built up a momentum N before turning NE at the last minute, so the surge I think could not be "brought together" into SW Fl. High winds but not the normal Cat 4 surge. Perhaps the same would have happened with Tampa. Best bet for a massive surge would be a storm moving NE or ENE for a couple of hundred miles out of the Gulf toward Tampa. But I would speculate that this storm would probably be of Cat 3 rating. But thats okay, you could get plenty of surge out of a 125 mph storm moving in this fashion into Tampa Bay.


Charley was an unusual hurricane because of its compact size and rapid forward motion, which minimized surge. I remember that hurricane Ivan was originally forecast to hit the Tampa Bay area, and it had me far more worried than Charley, because Ivan was a Cat 5, not a Cat 2, when that forecast was issued. Fortunately for Tampa, and unfortunately for Pensacola, Ivan's track changed considerably over the next few days.

A hurricane would have to form in late August or in September, pass into the gulf unhindered by Cuba, hit the loop current, and curve just right for there to be a "worst case" scenario for Tampa Bay. It might happen this year, it might not happen for another 1000 years, but it will happen eventually, you can bank on that. The odds in any given year are quite low, however.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:49 pm

TampaSteve wrote:
Berwick Bay wrote:Oh, but one other problem with the "Cat 4 type Charley scenario" affecting Tampa, and that is you probably would not have gotten a Cat 4 type surge with Charley. I know that Charley's small size limited surge down near Punta Gorda, but I think the big reason was its angle of approach to the coast. The storm had built up a momentum N before turning NE at the last minute, so the surge I think could not be "brought together" into SW Fl. High winds but not the normal Cat 4 surge. Perhaps the same would have happened with Tampa. Best bet for a massive surge would be a storm moving NE or ENE for a couple of hundred miles out of the Gulf toward Tampa. But I would speculate that this storm would probably be of Cat 3 rating. But thats okay, you could get plenty of surge out of a 125 mph storm moving in this fashion into Tampa Bay.


Charley was an unusual hurricane because of its compact size and rapid forward motion, which minimized surge. I remember that hurricane Ivan was originally forecast to hit the Tampa Bay area, and it had me far more worried than Charley, because Ivan was a Cat 5, not a Cat 2, when that forecast was issued. Fortunately for Tampa, and unfortunately for Pensacola, Ivan's track changed considerably over the next few days.

A hurricane would have to form in late August or in September, pass into the gulf unhindered by Cuba, hit the loop current, and curve just right for there to be a "worst case" scenario for Tampa Bay. It might happen this year, it might not happen for another 1000 years, but it will happen eventually, you can bank on that. The odds in any given year are quite low, however.


Such seems more like an October scenario as a trough would have to come down to make it turn right late...at mid-season it would probably have to go over Cuba first like Charley did, or get blocked by a ridge like Donna did and Elena almost did, to go over the Tampa
Bay area.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#25 Postby TampaSteve » Sun Jul 15, 2007 5:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
TampaSteve wrote:
Berwick Bay wrote:Oh, but one other problem with the "Cat 4 type Charley scenario" affecting Tampa, and that is you probably would not have gotten a Cat 4 type surge with Charley. I know that Charley's small size limited surge down near Punta Gorda, but I think the big reason was its angle of approach to the coast. The storm had built up a momentum N before turning NE at the last minute, so the surge I think could not be "brought together" into SW Fl. High winds but not the normal Cat 4 surge. Perhaps the same would have happened with Tampa. Best bet for a massive surge would be a storm moving NE or ENE for a couple of hundred miles out of the Gulf toward Tampa. But I would speculate that this storm would probably be of Cat 3 rating. But thats okay, you could get plenty of surge out of a 125 mph storm moving in this fashion into Tampa Bay.


Charley was an unusual hurricane because of its compact size and rapid forward motion, which minimized surge. I remember that hurricane Ivan was originally forecast to hit the Tampa Bay area, and it had me far more worried than Charley, because Ivan was a Cat 5, not a Cat 2, when that forecast was issued. Fortunately for Tampa, and unfortunately for Pensacola, Ivan's track changed considerably over the next few days.

A hurricane would have to form in late August or in September, pass into the gulf unhindered by Cuba, hit the loop current, and curve just right for there to be a "worst case" scenario for Tampa Bay. It might happen this year, it might not happen for another 1000 years, but it will happen eventually, you can bank on that. The odds in any given year are quite low, however.


Such seems more like an October scenario as a trough would have to come down to make it turn right late...at mid-season it would probably have to go over Cuba first like Charley did, or get blocked by a ridge like Donna did and Elena almost did, to go over the Tampa
Bay area.


I don't think you would see a hurricane survive as a Cat 5 with the kind of shear you'd get from Wilma-like motion...that sucker was moving at 55 mph once the front grabbed it. The ULL was torn away from the surface low in short order.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#26 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 15, 2007 5:46 pm

Slidell went though the western eyewall of Katrina while Diamondhead, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis went though the eastern eyewall of Katrina. Wind damage was far worst along the eastern eyewall side of Katrina.

I was down in Punta Gorda last October, a little over two years since Charley went through. I was amazed at how quickly the damage has been repaired. I could hardly tell a Cat-4 hurricane had been through there. The last Cat-4 damage I toured was Hugo about 1 year removed. The damage from Hugo appeared way worst.

Tampa Bay will one day look like the Mississippi Gulf Coast in extent of surge damage. It will not be a pretty sight. Hope none of us see it in our life times...MGC
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#27 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 15, 2007 7:52 pm

MGC wrote:Slidell went though the western eyewall of Katrina while Diamondhead, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis went though the eastern eyewall of Katrina. Wind damage was far worst along the eastern eyewall side of Katrina.

I was down in Punta Gorda last October, a little over two years since Charley went through. I was amazed at how quickly the damage has been repaired. I could hardly tell a Cat-4 hurricane had been through there. The last Cat-4 damage I toured was Hugo about 1 year removed. The damage from Hugo appeared way worst.

Tampa Bay will one day look like the Mississippi Gulf Coast in extent of surge damage. It will not be a pretty sight. Hope none of us see it in our life times...MGC


Hugo was much larger than Charley. I think the extent of hurricane force winds from Hugo were at least 100 miles in radius from the eye. Charley had hurricane force winds extending up to 30 miles radius from the eye.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:04 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
MGC wrote:Slidell went though the western eyewall of Katrina while Diamondhead, Pass Christian and Bay St. Louis went though the eastern eyewall of Katrina. Wind damage was far worst along the eastern eyewall side of Katrina.

I was down in Punta Gorda last October, a little over two years since Charley went through. I was amazed at how quickly the damage has been repaired. I could hardly tell a Cat-4 hurricane had been through there. The last Cat-4 damage I toured was Hugo about 1 year removed. The damage from Hugo appeared way worst.

Tampa Bay will one day look like the Mississippi Gulf Coast in extent of surge damage. It will not be a pretty sight. Hope none of us see it in our life times...MGC


Hugo was much larger than Charley. I think the extent of hurricane force winds from Hugo were at least 100 miles in radius from the eye. Charley had hurricane force winds extending up to 30 miles radius from the eye.


Yes and affected far more communities with major damage. Not to mention Hugo had about a 20 foot storm surge. I think Hugo was a huge learning experience with storm surges - I remember that one school with several towns full of people used as a coastal shelter just east of Charleston was flooded with 8 feet of water as it was not properly assessed (in reality it could only sustain a Category 1-2 surge, not Category 4). Remarkably no one died there - and had that not happened, I think many, many more could have died in Katrina as they may not have known to assess them better and they might have set up shelters in Greater New Orleans and coastal Mississippi that couldn't stand up to the surge.
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#29 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:58 pm

Based on relatives, maybe not. In reality? I'm calling b.s. on the whole premise of the article. Seriously. When have over 1,000,000 people been made instantly homeless for 14 days to 2 years in Modern America? Never. If if was a spliff, people might get high off of it. Until another major metropolitan area is destroyed, there is no comparison.

Ibid, there isn't much comparison with the death toll (re: US and A) with Galveston 1900. Some storms just leave their mark. Others in the future will probably dwarf Katrina. But until they do, nothing comes close. Really. And I'm not just talking the New Orleans area. I'm talking Northshore/St. Tammany, Coastal Mississippi and Alabama too. I'm not sure of the entirety of the net migration, but easily millions of people either lost their homes or had severe damage and had to wing it for a while.

:)

Steve
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#30 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 15, 2007 10:11 pm

it was demonstrated in SLOSH simulations that even an Andrew sized Charley would have placed much of the SWC of Florida under 10-15 feet of water. For Charley, it was the size
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#31 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 15, 2007 10:16 pm

I think what the article is saying is what would have happened had many canes of the past hit today. Many storms of the past seemed to be less destructive as there was less to damage


as for a 5 in Tampa, you had better have Charley liek QG intensificatioin and it better make landfall before it gets sheared apart. Charley happened to hit at the perfect time
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#32 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 15, 2007 10:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yes and affected far more communities with major damage. Not to mention Hugo had about a 20 foot storm surge. I think Hugo was a huge learning experience with storm surges - I remember that one school with several towns full of people used as a coastal shelter just east of Charleston was flooded with 8 feet of water as it was not properly assessed (in reality it could only sustain a Category 1-2 surge, not Category 4). Remarkably no one died there - and had that not happened, I think many, many more could have died in Katrina as they may not have known to assess them better and they might have set up shelters in Greater New Orleans and coastal Mississippi that couldn't stand up to the surge.


I've seen footage of Hugo and it's really bad. Lots of damage. I remember watching Rescue 911 and they re-enacted that school that got flooded. Really scary! :eek:
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#33 Postby HollynLA » Sun Jul 15, 2007 10:38 pm

It seems like it's a "my storm did more damage than your storm" thing. Of course storms in the past would have initially done more damage than they did 100 years ago. Now we have more people on the coasts and more buildings. Isn't that just common sense?
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#34 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:07 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Yes and affected far more communities with major damage. Not to mention Hugo had about a 20 foot storm surge. I think Hugo was a huge learning experience with storm surges - I remember that one school with several towns full of people used as a coastal shelter just east of Charleston was flooded with 8 feet of water as it was not properly assessed (in reality it could only sustain a Category 1-2 surge, not Category 4). Remarkably no one died there - and had that not happened, I think many, many more could have died in Katrina as they may not have known to assess them better and they might have set up shelters in Greater New Orleans and coastal Mississippi that couldn't stand up to the surge.


I've seen footage of Hugo and it's really bad. Lots of damage. I remember watching Rescue 911 and they re-enacted that school that got flooded. Really scary! :eek:


I found that clip on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QemSuEkqBlE

It looked worse in reality (based on the statistics reported) than on the re-enactment (probably for the safety of the crew); that does not look like 8-10 feet of water. That makes it even more of a miracle that they survived.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#35 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:31 pm

>>I think what the article is saying is what would have happened had many canes of the past hit today. Many storms of the past seemed to be less destructive as there was less to damage.

I caught that. But it's all hypothetical because of the coastal demographics circa 2005. There's no doubt in my mind that future hurricanes will easily surpass what happened with Katrina. There are far more populated areas of the coastline, and far more people who could potentially be affected. Katrina only wrought Cat 2 like conditions to the city. The breaking of the levees due to human error and from the massive amount of water she picked up along the way were perhaps what we'd expect from a Category 4. The Mississippi Coast and sections of St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish got Cat 3 Conditions with a +/- Cat 5 type surge. But there will be landfalling Category 4's and 5's which will eventually trash other sections of our coastline and cause similar or costlier damage than Katrina's $74 billion. And there will be storms that will kill more than the 1,800-2,000 lost in Katrina. Mitch wasn't that long ago, and he took 10,000 in Central America (primarily Honduras I think). The Bhola cyclone that hit East Pakistan (now Bangledesh) in 1970 killed possibly 500,000 people (no one knows for sure how many). The one that hit them in 1991 took another 100,000. And while we may never see death tolls in the tens or hundreds of thousands, there will be some impact that will at least kill several thousand Americans. There are many large metropolitan areas from Brownsville to the Northeast. The clock is ticking.

>>I've seen footage of Hugo and it's really bad.

Yeah, Hugo was pretty widely covered on television. I'll never forget the pile of yachts and pleasure crafts you saw piled up. He was a monster.

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#36 Postby Berwick Bay » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:35 pm

Steve said this
Based on relatives, maybe not. In reality? I'm calling b.s. on the whole premise of the article. Seriously. When have over 1,000,000 people been made instantly homeless for 14 days to 2 years in Modern America? Never. If if was a spliff, people might get high off of it. Until another major metropolitan area is destroyed, there is no comparison.

Ibid, there isn't much comparison with the death toll (re: US and A) with Galveston 1900. Some storms just leave their mark. Others in the future will probably dwarf Katrina. But until they do, nothing comes close. Really. And I'm not just talking the New Orleans area. I'm talking Northshore/St. Tammany, Coastal Mississippi and Alabama too. I'm not sure of the entirety of the net migration, but easily millions of people either lost their homes or had severe damage and had to wing it for a while.

Totally agree Steve, and said so earlier in the thread. Look at the title to this thread. Does it make any sense at all, in the light of what you posted? None!
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:40 pm

Hurricanes today and hurricanes in the past don't make great direct comparisons in terms of what happened THEN. The best comparisons are made if you create a hypothetical example of such a hurricane hitting at the same time as the one being compared to.
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#38 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:45 pm

>>Totally agree Steve, and said so earlier in the thread. Look at the title to this thread. Does it make any sense at all, in the light of what you posted? None

Thanks. Obviously we can speculate on anything. And in some ways, the story might shed some light on the fact that catastrophic damage may be more of a reality than people are willing to admit. But it's difficult to say whether the author was playing a game of my storm damaged more (like Holly was thinking) or if he's trying to educate people that the reality of utter devastation and complete loss of everything you know may be a lot closer than most suspect.

Steve
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#39 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:55 pm

Say a hurricane simular to the 1900 Galveston hurricane happens this season. Does anyone expect 10000 people to die? If the 1928 hurricane hits South Florida will 2000 die? Doubt it. Katrina's 1800 deaths should have never happened in todays age. I can't understand why so many didn't evacuate around here when a monster Cat-5 was bearing down on us? Katrina made Cat-5 Sunday morning and by Sunday noon I was headed to Florida, first hurricane I ever evacuated for. Sure the damage will be greater for the next monster hurricane to hit a major metro area. Will we see the Coast Guard helo plucking people off their roofs? Hope and pray not. I've witnessed enough suffering with Katrina. I'll never forget the stench of death, never.....MGC
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Re: Katrin devastation not unrivaled....

#40 Postby Valkhorn » Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:11 am

Drive up I-55 from Slidell to Meridian


Its I59, not I55

/Hattiesburg resident.
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