Berwick Bay wrote:Oh, but one other problem with the "Cat 4 type Charley scenario" affecting Tampa, and that is you probably would not have gotten a Cat 4 type surge with Charley. I know that Charley's small size limited surge down near Punta Gorda, but I think the big reason was its angle of approach to the coast. The storm had built up a momentum N before turning NE at the last minute, so the surge I think could not be "brought together" into SW Fl. High winds but not the normal Cat 4 surge. Perhaps the same would have happened with Tampa. Best bet for a massive surge would be a storm moving NE or ENE for a couple of hundred miles out of the Gulf toward Tampa. But I would speculate that this storm would probably be of Cat 3 rating. But thats okay, you could get plenty of surge out of a 125 mph storm moving in this fashion into Tampa Bay.
Charley was an unusual hurricane because of its compact size and rapid forward motion, which minimized surge. I remember that hurricane Ivan was originally forecast to hit the Tampa Bay area, and it had me far more worried than Charley, because Ivan was a Cat 5, not a Cat 2, when that forecast was issued. Fortunately for Tampa, and unfortunately for Pensacola, Ivan's track changed considerably over the next few days.
A hurricane would have to form in late August or in September, pass into the gulf unhindered by Cuba, hit the loop current, and curve just right for there to be a "worst case" scenario for Tampa Bay. It might happen this year, it might not happen for another 1000 years, but it will happen eventually, you can bank on that. The odds in any given year are quite low, however.