Houston/Galveston area hurricane chatter...

[WhiteShirt]

That said, the current pattern evolution does concern me as as we head to the heart of the season I will be watching very closely. Let's just hope a major doesn't form in the Caribbean and head towards the Yucatan Channel. If we saw that kind of scenario any time soon I'm afraid Texas would be in big trouble.

Why is the current pattern evolution concerning for the TX coast? I live on the upper TX coast, so, this interests me.

Thanks.

[Stratosphere747]

Not to say that many of you shouldn't be vigilant from a preparedness standpoint. But quite a bit, not only from this site, but elsewhere are safe from extreme damage. Not to say that many wouldn't get some degree of structural damage, but not on the scale that fear seems to be setting in.

Put it this way - Depending on the point of landfall, for either my house or business interests, I'll be returning to a slab or a few pilings sticking out of the sand. You will be calling your insurance adjuster...

With that said, I'm more at ease with this season than I ever have before. Nothing I can do about it but be prepared.

[Aquawind]

What are the Texas fisherman and farmers chattering about related to hurricane season?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

What are the Texas fisherman and farmers chattering about related to hurricane season?

ya good question? has anyone notice a change in pecan trees and or oak trees, animals, etc. I believe it was berwick bay said about oak trees before the 2005 season on grand ilse not having oaks? there was a story on that maybe he could elaberate more. also have read also about above avg. rainfall to relation to major hurricanes on the texas coast ie: 1900 and 1961 and '83 may have been in there too, may have been this site or the khou.com/weatherboard site that I read that. this being an odd year, ever since '99, '01, '03 and '05(can be disputed either way) somewhere along the texas coast had been hit with a tropical storm or hurricane.

[Johnny]

I know that before Alicia hit we were having alot of rain in Southeast, Texas. The grounds were very saturated before she hit and she caused ALOT of trees to topple over.

[jasons2k]

Concurring with what David said on the first page, I don't think the vast majority of us are trying to create some kind of hype or unnecessary fear.

I can't speak for years prior to 2006 (I joined in mid-season 2005), but I know last year there was an increased concern for the Texas coast. This was in almost every seasonal landfall forecast last year, and Stacy Stewart himself said at the 2006 hurricane conference that the steering patterns for 2006 were going to be similiar to 2005, except "if anything, a bit further west." When respectable sources such as that make comments like that, I take notice.

Here's the thing that concerns me the most about Houston-Galveston. One day (it may be 2007; it may not be until 2107) we will have another Rita in the GOM and it will landfall in Galveston-Freeport - a "direct hit" if you will. If this happens any time soon, a large percentage of the population will not evacuate due to the Rita experience. Furthermore, emergency management officials, etc., are telling the public if you are not in a surge zone to shelter in place.

YES, in the vast majority of scenarios, that will suffice. That is sound advice. But - and this is a HUGE but, if there is another worst-case storm taking aim straight at Galveston, the facts are that "sheltering in place" for most of Harris County residents is a very, very, very dangerous, life-threatening risk to take. The homes here are not built up to code to withstand the winds of a landfalling major hurricane. They're just not. Only a very small, miniscule percentage of the population will have the full arsenal of boarded windows, hurricane braces, garage door braces, etc.

In addition, there is a disproportionate amount of very poor quality tract homes built in the 1970's and early 1980's during the boom along the "inner ring" suburbs throughout Houston. They will not hold-up very well at all. These people are all being told to "shelter in place." I respectfully disagree that that's the prudent course of action if we have Rita part II barelling down on Houston. To me, it's worth the tradeoff of a 10-hour trip to Dallas rather than staying here and praying your roof holds-up to 100+ mph winds while every tree on your lot is split in two.

I'm not trying to create any kind of hype or fear; I'm trying to create awareness. I feel like a false sense of security is being perpetuated that as long as you live outside a surge zone you are safe.

Yes, chances are up here in The Woodlands I'll be just calling my insurance adjustor. The chaces of something that severe in my lifetime are indeed remote.

But if a major made a direct hit on us, I lost my roof and every pine tree surrounding me knocked down the rest, and all that is left is a pile if 2X4's and a trash heap, then what's the difference? I'm no better off than my buddy who has a house in Pirate's Beach. Most people north of I-10 don't think that's possible, but unfortunately it is.

[vbhoutex]

That said, the current pattern evolution does concern me as as we head to the heart of the season I will be watching very closely. Let's just hope a major doesn't form in the Caribbean and head towards the Yucatan Channel. If we saw that kind of scenario any time soon I'm afraid Texas would be in big trouble.

Why is the current pattern evolution concerning for the TX coast? I live on the upper TX coast, so, this interests me.

Thanks.

The basic simple answer is that the steering patterns would probably bring any hurricanes that move into the Gulf to a landfall further West in the Gulf as opposed to say the central Gulf Coast. There a several different variables that could lessen or even increase this chance, but that is the basic answer. IOW if the current pattern holds it appears that landfall rixk for the Texas coast could be greater than for coastal areas further to the East.

[dwg71]

I think evacuating South of 59 in Harris County is sufficent. Anything above that is just clogging the freeways and will leave people in high risk zones no alternative but to turn back. If you made it to Dallas in 10 hours consider your self lucky. Most people took twice that long and many died on the freeways.

Lets just pray it doesnt happen. I was in South east Harris County for Alecia in 83, in one of those tract homes you speak of and we didnt even have our wooden fence toppled. I know Alecia was borderline cat 3 and a cat 5 would be different.

As far as trees, I put that under my be prepared statement. Make sure your trees are cleared away from your house and properly maintained. I know they look pretty, but for safety they need to come down if they are in danger of falling on your house.

Be prepared, and have a plan, and then implement that plan if necessary. And I just dont put alot of stock into "the overall pattern of the season dictates an increased risk", every storm is different as to time of the year of formation, location of formation, weather patterns surrounding the storm are constantly changing throughout the season. The maps that have "high and low risk areas", are fun to look at, but really dont mean much when they come out in May, when you are dealing with a storm in September.

Just my .02 worth.

[jasons2k]

Well, I saw either on the news or in another thread this week, someone in The Heights (north of 59) was upset because their premiums almost doubled due to windstorm coverage. Well it's for good reason. The past few years are evidence enough of what can happen 30, 50, even 100 miles inland if a major storm makes landfall. It won't be pretty.

I agree, in almost every case, except for that "100-yr storm", places north of 59 will be safe. But in a worst case scenario, it just won't be sufficent IMO.

Hopefully the next evac. will be better. Rita was a bit unique in that everyone had Katrina on their minds and everyone left at once. One thing that gets lost in the post-evac. analysis is that by Friday, the roads were completely deserted. One could have driven to Dallas in 4 hours flat. (FWIW we stayed here, but I know someone who got there in 6 hours on "hell day" by not taking 45).

Anyway, I truly hope we never see the day.

[Kludge]

I think the worst case scenario for Hou/Gal is not a long-lived storm like Gilbert, but another more powerful Alicia. Remember, Alicia went from a puff of clouds in the BOC to the TX coast in only a few days as a Cat 3. Even today's best laid evacuation plans would still leave many, many folks in the midst of trying to leave as the storm comes ashore. Just think about sitting in your car with the kids and pets as a strong hurricane comes right up I-45!

With a storm like Katrina or Rita, we all had a week to become aware of it and begin to plan. There are so many here now that don't remember Alicia... and (as stated above) as a result of the Rita evac nightmare, would "shelter in place" now.

Bottom line is... it wouldn't take a Cat 5 hitting Freeport to wreak disaster on this area; a weaker storm that cranks up quickly in our "back yard" could leave major human devastation.

That's why, at the risk of being over cautious, we have to pay special attention to the Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

I think the worst case scenario for Hou/Gal is not a long-lived storm like Gilbert, but another more powerful Alicia. Remember, Alicia went from a puff of clouds in the BOC to the TX coast in only a few days as a Cat 3. Even today's best laid evacuation plans would still leave many, many folks in the midst of trying to leave as the storm comes ashore. Just think about sitting in your car with the kids and pets as a strong hurricane comes right up I-45!

With a storm like Katrina or Rita, we all had a week to become aware of it and begin to plan. There are so many here now that don't remember Alicia... and (as stated above) as a result of the Rita evac nightmare, would "shelter in place" now.

Bottom line is... it wouldn't take a Cat 5 hitting Freeport to wreak disaster on this area; a weaker storm that cranks up quickly in our "back yard" could leave major human devastation.

That's why, at the risk of being over cautious, we have to pay special attention to the Gulf.

Alicia formed after a cool front passed by in 1983. It would take a storm like Wilma to cause trouble for Houston/Galveston. A tropical depression explodes in a large Category 5 hurricane the size of Katrina or Gilbert. To make matters worse, there would be less time to evacuate and many would die. I remember Gilbert well because it caused a huge scare for Texans. The worst before Rita. Gilbert was really large and strong. Think about how much damage it could of done. It would even be larger than Carla and create storm surge as high as 40 feet. Scary thing is Gilbert was also forecasted to hit New Orleans.

[DPTX]

[That's why, at the risk of being over cautious, we have to pay special attention to the Gulf.[/quote]

I agree that we need to keep an eye on the gulf. Things can change there in a hurry.

We didn't leave during Rita. We were going to leave after my dad had his dialysis treatment. The highways were completely clogged when his treatment was canceled. I hope we never have another scare like that one.
DPTX

[jasons2k]

Good points to add to the dicsussion!

This is something Mr. Stewart emphasized in his presention last year. He said the US coast is not immune from a rapidly intensifying storm like Wilma. He said it's only a mater of time before we get a storm that experiences its rapid deepening right off the TX coast.

I believe the '43 hurricane was similiar to Alicia - it was just winding up as it made landfall. Same goes with Claudette '03. Given 12 more hours it could have been much, much worse.

[Stratosphere747]

A good bit of inland areas need a significant storm coming in at just the right trajectory to see damage. While coastal areas can see significant damage from minor storms.

How many even received a gust from either Claudette, Frances or Fay? Sargent thru San Luis Pass, and even portions of the West end of Galveston seen decent surge values and moderate damage.

Again, I'm not downplaying the potential damage and threat to personal property and individuals to inland areas. We saw how Rita effected those within this community that were located away from the coast.

My point of contention is that the evac zones and risks to those along the immediate coast should be the first concern. Being that my wife is involved with the Brazoria OEM, I get somewhat peeved when folks so far inland continue to be dismissive of the shelter in place idea.

As much as Rita has most likely set us back from a evacuation angle, I'm somewhat relieved that it did happen. With a RI system that gosh forbid attained major status in a few days, I'd like my friends and family to at least have the opportunity to get far enough inland. Any repeat of something on the Rita scale, and they are sitting along the highway, while many of those that could have sheltered in place are on their way to San Antonio, or Dallas.

I don’t want to turn this into a inland (majority of SE Texas posters here) vs. coastal residents (raises hand) argument.

But if needed, I’ll be happy to oblige….

[Johnny]

I'm going down to Galveston today and staying for the weekend in a beachfront home. I'll get some pics of the beachfront and the erosion that has taken place over the years. Also, the beach front homes are almost sitting on top of the water. It won't take much of a hurricane to send them into the 'big drink' permanently.

[jasons2k]

Hey Stratos,

I'm not saying I disagree with you. I don't want to get into an inland vs. coastal debate either. I think (I hope) I was clear when I stated that in the vast majority of cases the standard evac. orders are sufficient. Of course in those scenarios, coastal locations will be primarily impacted.

All I'm saying is that for that rare exception, that 100-year storm, that possible Rita or whatever, even inland locations to ~100 miles should seriously consider if their home can withstand the impact of a major strike.

That scenario is, again, far and away the exception to the rule but it by no means people north of I-10 are immune to significant property damage or even total structural failure in the rare, worst-case scenario. The forecast on Wednesday PM before Rita was just that scenario.

Also, I'd be very cautious when using storms like Fern, Fay, Claudette, or even Alicia as benchmarks. That's the same mistake many Floridians made prior to 2004, and the same mistake many Mississippians made prior to Katrina - even by using Camille as 'gold standard' benchmark. A lot of people in Mississippi stayed behind because their home "survived Camille" and for that mistake they paid the ultimate price.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm going down to Galveston today and staying for the weekend in a beachfront home. I'll get some pics of the beachfront and the erosion that has taken place over the years. Also, the beach front homes are almost sitting on top of the water. It won't take much of a hurricane to send them into the 'big drink' permanently.

Johnny,

If you see this before you leave, make sure and take a trip down towards San Luis Pass. The new Pointe West development is about 80% done. If it has been awhile since you have been down there, your jaw will drop.. It's like a new city.

Also on the way, and back towards the bay you will see a new development that is being delayed.

http://www.khou.com/news/local/galvesto ... bcaee.html

If you want to see some real erosion, go across the bridge over San Luis Pass and check out the houses near the geo tubes.

[Stratosphere747]

Hey Stratos,

I'm not saying I disagree with you. I don't want to get into an inland vs. coastal debate either. I think (I hope) I was clear when I stated that in the vast majority of cases the standard evac. orders are sufficient. Of course in those scenarios, coastal locations will be primarily impacted.

All I'm saying is that for that rare exception, that 100-year storm, that possible Rita or whatever, even inland locations to ~100 miles should seriously consider if their home can withstand the impact of a major strike.

That scenario is, again, far and away the exception to the rule but it by no means people north of I-10 are immune to significant property damage or even total structural failure in the rare, worst-case scenario. The forecast on Wednesday PM before Rita was just that scenario.

Also, I'd be very cautious when using storms like Fern, Fay, Claudette, or even Alicia as benchmarks. That's the same mistake many Floridians made prior to 2004, and the same mistake many Mississippians made prior to Katrina - even by using Camille as 'gold standard' benchmark. A lot of people in Mississippi stayed behind because their home "survived Camille" and for that mistake they paid the ultimate price.

I understand where you are coming across for the most part Jason, and I'm not trying to be combative. Just a peeve of mine from a evac vs. shelter in place standpoint.

Totally understand how everyone would be impacted in the worst case scenario. And this is in no way meant to downplay such a circumstance - It will take such a rare type of hurricane coming in at just the right trajectory for such an occurrence. Can it happen? No question, and I see why this should stay in everyone’s mind outside the evac zone. Not something I worry about to much anymore being there wouldn't be much left in portions of the evac zones.

The only benchmark I can think of using over the last century, is probably Carla.

[southerngale]

Yes, chances are up here in The Woodlands I'll be just calling my insurance adjustor. The chaces of something that severe in my lifetime are indeed remote.

But if a major made a direct hit on us, I lost my roof and every pine tree surrounding me knocked down the rest, and all that is left is a pile if 2X4's and a trash heap, then what's the difference? I'm no better off than my buddy who has a house in Pirate's Beach. Most people north of I-10 don't think that's possible, but unfortunately it is.

How far inland is the Woodlands? We evacuated to Jasper for Rita (which is about 80-90 miles inland) and it wasn't far enough. I'll never stay that close again. With the sound of trees crashing to the ground all around me and roofs peeling off, I feared for myself, my family and other relatives, particularly all the kids with us (we got several rooms for all of us and ended up all huddled up in what we thought was the sturdiest one)
We spent many scary hours in the pitch dark, listening to the screaming hurricane, praying the motel wouldn't come apart (pieces off it were flying off) or a tree wouldn't crush us.

Sidenote: After we evacuated there, we woke up to a mandatory evacuation for Jasper as well, and everything shut down. No gas and we had used a lot of ours just getting there, evacuees lined up on Hwy.96 at a standstill, so we got the owners to let us sign a waiver and stay, releasing them from liability should something happen to us, even though they were going to leave.

I am in an evacuation zone, but my butt will be in the DFW area if threatened again. Jasper wasn't far enough for me. Call me chicken if you want, but I don't want to be in a house, motel, building or whatever when a tree comes crashing down on it (and you know how many trees we have in SE TX) and it's not just me I have to think about.

Here's a few pics from Jasper. I wouldn't want to be in those houses, particularly the ones split in two. This is just a sampling of what occurred that far north, too. The pictures don't do it justice.


Way up in Jasper, Tx.





Jasper Chevron






Jasper Trailers Tossed



National Guard in Jasper


Some Jasper homes

[jasons2k]

Hey Kelly,

We are about the equivalent of Jasper. I can't imagine what it would have been like in Jasper if Rita didn't weaken and entrain all that dry air and essentially come ashore as a dying "half a hurricane". That's Mr. Stewart's description, not mine. Point is, I know it was bad but it could have been even a lot worse. In that case, Jasper would have looked more like Beaumont or Orange. I saw Beaumont & Lake Charles 3 weeks after Rita and "no thank you."

I'm with you - Is that worth staying and risking your life for? I think not.