Invest 97E

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:14 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

A race against time.
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AnnularCane
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Re: Invest 97E=TCFA issued

#22 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:27 am

Come on, little fella.

It would be nice to have one that is given more than a day or two to live.
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#23 Postby WmE » Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:45 am

14/0600 UTC 13.3N 113.1W T2.0/2.0 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

Well, should be a TD soon, however it has very little time to develop into Cosme.
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#24 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 14, 2007 7:55 am

821
WHXX01 KMIA 141241
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052007) 20070714 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070714 1200 070715 0000 070715 1200 070716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 114.3W 16.4N 116.7W 17.3N 119.1W 18.1N 121.7W
BAMD 15.3N 114.3W 15.9N 116.0W 16.3N 117.8W 16.7N 119.9W
BAMM 15.3N 114.3W 16.1N 116.6W 16.7N 119.1W 17.4N 121.8W
LBAR 15.3N 114.3W 15.9N 116.6W 16.5N 119.3W 17.3N 122.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070716 1200 070717 1200 070718 1200 070719 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 124.5W 19.1N 130.0W 20.1N 134.9W 21.7N 137.7W
BAMD 17.1N 122.1W 18.3N 126.4W 19.3N 129.7W 19.9N 132.0W
BAMM 18.1N 124.6W 18.9N 130.3W 19.6N 135.7W 20.6N 140.1W
LBAR 17.9N 125.1W 19.3N 130.7W 20.7N 134.8W 21.1N 136.6W
SHIP 39KTS 30KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 30KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 114.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 112.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 110.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 14, 2007 7:58 am

Yes,the models and NRL have it as a TD but let's wait for the official word from NHC later on.Then,when the official word comes,a new thread for the TD will be made.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:13 am

14/1230 UTC 15.3N 115.1W T2.5/2.5 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

Dvorak says TS.
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#27 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:16 am

How likely will the NHC go straight to Cosme? NRL has 25 kts. Doesn't look good enough for TS yet.
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