VERY INTRESTING. Model still developing a Low Pressure in G

[Aric Dunn]

blah blah blah....... simple fact.,... regardless of how well any model in the past has done.... or not done.. is not the point... we are entering the heart of the season soon and everything needs to be watched... if the CMC shows something .. chances are there is something already out there that is large enough so that it would even pick up on ... so just watch it.. no need for speculation or.. saying the CMC sucks or anything of the sorts... because thats not what matters..


just watch it...

[Stormcenter]

Things are so "slow" that anything is worth watching now but I wouldn't
get too excited about 180 hour out model output no matter which one it is.

[southerngale]

blah blah blah....... simple fact.,... regardless of how well any model in the past has done.... or not done.. is not the point... we are entering the heart of the season soon and everything needs to be watched... if the CMC shows something .. chances are there is something already out there that is large enough so that it would even pick up on ... so just watch it.. no need for speculation or.. saying the CMC sucks or anything of the sorts... because thats not what matters..


just watch it...

No need for speculation? What shall we do, then?

Actually, it's quite logical to take into account a model's past performance. Whoever wants to watch it, should watch it. Whoever wants to discount the model or mention that it often targets Florida or whatnot, that's fine too. Everyone won't share your opinion. They're free to speculate all they want.

[Frank2]

Nothing seen on the GFS but a wrinkle in the isobars - but, another strong trough is forecast over the northeast later in that same period...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500p_10d.html

it was interesting to see the lows this morning in Minnesota, which shows how deep those troughs are this summer:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=0

Yipes - at 6 a.m. (CT), Hibbing was foggy and 35!

Now that's a trough...

[boca]

Gee I'm shocked the hurricane off Miami is not there today.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

the wave seems to be holding its own.....lets see the next few runs of the CMC. Hard to believe it just dropped it out of nowhere..

[gatorcane]

From another member:

The 12Z CMC run is now back on this fairly strong.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I think it bears watching.....the CMC is really gunhoe on this thing for reasons we may not be able to see at this point.

[windstorm99]

[punkyg]

From another member:

The 12Z CMC run is now back on this fairly strong.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I think it bears watching.....the CMC is really gunhoe on this thing for reasons we may not be able to see at this point.

The cmc model keep saying its gonna form near the bahamas, but i really dont see that happening with
the high building in.besides its gonna get sheared apart .

but i'll keep a little hope for the wave to develop unlike some people.

[CrazyC83]

That is a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with the pressure estimate over 1000. The steering currents would probably leave it just offshore and drive it back up the Big Bend.

If it formed well off in the Atlantic, it would probably hug the Eastern Seaboard or remain just off of it. The steering currents are quite reminiscent of 1996 at this point.

[cpdaman]

punkyG it is not a hurricane it is forecast to be a tropical storm by this model

big difference but still important

also it does not from in bahamas it is a wave that forms a low pressure near dominican and develops more in the bahamas

but good find none the less

[gatorcane]

will watch the other models to see if they jump on the bandwagon. If they do things are going to get interesting...still far out so no need to worry.

[deltadog03]

This system, **IF** develops teleconnects to almost a TEE with whats going on near japan!

[x-y-no]

Wake me when a model that has some clue about the tropics latches on to the idea ...

[cycloneye]

Same here.

[Opal storm]

Don't bother waking me up until September.

[gtsmith]

This system, **IF** develops teleconnects to almost a TEE with whats going on near japan!

as the caveman in the geico insurance commercial says: "ahhh....What??"

What is the definition of "teleconnects"? I can't find it on dictionary.com, I don't think that's a word?

[x-y-no]

This system, **IF** develops teleconnects to almost a TEE with whats going on near japan!

as the caveman in the geico insurance commercial says: "ahhh....What??"

What is the definition of "teleconnects"? I can't find it on dictionary.com, I don't think that's a word?

Teleconnections are a very old idea in meteorology. The basic premise is that since the large scale Rossby waves in the atmosphere propagate west to east around the pole, the pattern in a region to the west can be predictive of the pattern here in the mid to long range.

[gtsmith]

oh, that is very cool. I had no idea. Thanks for enlightening me.

[jrod]

This system, **IF** develops teleconnects to almost a TEE with whats going on near japan!

Have you been listening to Joe Bastardi?