New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR

[hial2]

Isn't this the remnants of old 97L that was forecasted by a member of the board to be here at this time? Maybe WXMAN?..The bottom axis of that wave?

[wxman57]

Isn't this the remnants of old 97L that was forecast by a member of the board to be here at this time? Maybe WXMAN?..The bottom axis of that wave?

You are correct. It's the same wave. And right behind it is an even stronger wave approaching the Yucatan. I don't think the wave in the SW Gulf will do anything but bring more rain to Texas. But the wave behind it may have a slim shot at developing an LLC before it follows the same path toward northern MX/south TX over the weekend. For the most part, the main threat will be more heavy rain for Texas over the next week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Do you mean the WRF model? The WRF replaced the ETA model as the North American mesoscale last year. The WRF is horrible on the tropics.

[Frank2]

The topic needs to be changed if the the ETA is terrible in handling this type of system - most folks (including the speculators) only read the topics, not the messages - don't get them started by posting dramatic statements in CAPS...

Thanks

[dixiebreeze]

ETA or whatever is it now, was pretty good on short-distance tropics:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[Frank2]

Still, the the topic needs to be changed - let's not get folks started over an area of thunderstorms...

[skysummit]

Honestly Frank, do you really feel the need to coach each individual thread that mentions even the slightest possibility at development? Most, if not all here, are well informed enough to realize if there is any importance behind caps or not. It's a tropical forum....let people discuss the tropics how they please.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Isn't this the remnants of old 97L that was forecast by a member of the board to be here at this time? Maybe WXMAN?..The bottom axis of that wave?

You are correct. It's the same wave. And right behind it is an even stronger wave approaching the Yucatan. I don't think the wave in the SW Gulf will do anything but bring more rain to Texas. But the wave behind it may have a slim shot at developing an LLC before it follows the same path toward northern MX/south TX over the weekend. For the most part, the main threat will be more heavy rain for Texas over the next week.

I saw this coming last night when that low moved off the Yuc and blew up immediately...THis looks like a Prime spot for Chantal to make her appearance..

[Frank2]

All I'm saying is that when speculators (and there are plenty lurking here) read something like that in CAPS, they immediately pick up the phone or mouse, and start the oil and gas wheels spinning, believing that they have "an edge" over the rest of the field by knowing that something (whether imaginary or no) is going to "make landfall in 84 hours"...

As mentioned in last week's hearing - a number of Congressional staff members do read what is posted on this and other boards - a word to the wise...

Incidentially, nothing is mentioned in this morning's TWD concerning any Gulf activity, so...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1036.shtml?

P.S. I worked on Wall Street many years ago, so, have some knowledge of how this sort of thing works...

P.P.S. I don't mind talking about things when something is on the map - let's just keep it real...

[windstorm99]

Upper level winds dont favor development and infact look to be on the increase as another trof of low pressure moves into the southeast in the coming days.

[dixiebreeze]

"Incidentially, nothing is mentioned in this morning's TWD concerning any Gulf activity, so..."

That seems to be the norm lately.

[flwxwatcher]

All I'm saying is that when speculators (and there are plenty lurking here) read something like that in CAPS, they immediately pick up the phone or mouse, and start the oil and gas wheels spinning, believing that they have "an edge" over the rest of the field by knowing that something (whether imaginary or no) is going to "make landfall in 84 hours"...

As mentioned in last week's hearing - a number of Congressional staff members do read what is posted on this and other boards - a word to the wise...

Incidentially, nothing is mentioned in this morning's TWD concerning any Gulf activity, so...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1036.shtml?

P.S. I worked on Wall Street many years ago, so, have some knowledge of how this sort of thing works...

P.P.S. I don't mind talking about things when something is on the map - let's just keep it real...

Frank.. I do see your point but Number one the fact is the ETA does show a Tropical System and number 2 ( and I have a friend who trades who made this point) if someone really is invested in trading and speculating they full well know about certain models tendencies and weaknesses and if they don't they lose money and thats their fault:):):)

[caneman]

Upper level winds dont favor development and infact look to be on the increase as another trof of low pressure moves into the southeast in the coming days.

Windshear looks ok to me right now. And the 48-72 hours looks favorable as well. Ample time to get going if it's going to.

[dixiebreeze]

"As mentioned in last week's hearing - a number of Congressional staff members do read what is posted on this and other boards - a word to the wise..."

One might think our congress critters would be wise enough to check with the NHC/NWS as a priority move instead of amateur forums. But maybe not.

[Steve]

>>Do you mean the WRF model? The WRF replaced the ETA model as the North American mesoscale last year. The WRF is horrible on the tropics.

But it's not bad as far as moisture and rainfall goes. Many times I've seen people bashing ETA/WRF only to see that it was right. Remember the CMC from a week and a half ago? Same deal. Everyone was bashing the Canadian model. Yeah, it overdid a storm hitting in southern Maine, but it had the right idea. And it was out on its own. I'm not saying anything's going to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, only that as far as rainfall goes, it may be more clued in than anyone wants to give it credit for. JMO

GFS 06z and NAM 06z handle a blob (presumably the 2nd wave) entirely different. NAM eases it up the South Texas and SE Texas coasts pumping a bunch of moisture from SE LA through the Houston/Galveston area while the GFS just shoots it straight north into south central Louisiana. No telling what's going to happen until it does, but we shall see.

Steve

[Steve]

>>One might think our congress critters would be wise enough to check with the NHC/NWS as a priority move instead of amateur forums. But maybe not.

While we all should rely on the TPC for final say, you're not going to get the proverbial "goods" from them. You have to uncover it yourself or get it from a pro-met who isn't afraid to take a chance or take a harder look at certain areas within the tropics. They aren't stupid just like we aren't. You want the meat, you're going to look for it. When it comes time to trust your life or property on it, that's when the TPC/NHC must be the first priority.

FWIW, NOGAPS, UKMET and CMC basically compromise (mix of the 06z and 00z runs) between the NAM and the GFS as noted above. Some rainfall in Texas, Louisiana and the western Gulf of Mexico. Looks like a bit of a pattern change with a return of a deep tropical flow. Summer.

Steve

[cycloneye]

All I'm saying is that when speculators (and there are plenty lurking here) read something like that in CAPS, they immediately pick up the phone or mouse, and start the oil and gas wheels spinning, believing that they have "an edge" over the rest of the field by knowing that something (whether imaginary or no) is going to "make landfall in 84 hours"...

As mentioned in last week's hearing - a number of Congressional staff members do read what is posted on this and other boards - a word to the wise...

Incidentially, nothing is mentioned in this morning's TWD concerning any Gulf activity, so...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1036.shtml?

P.S. I worked on Wall Street many years ago, so, have some knowledge of how this sort of thing works...

P.P.S. I don't mind talking about things when something is on the map - let's just keep it real...

Frank,I dont know if is the speculators but today oil prices are up.

[Category 5]

the TWO makes no mention of it. We'll have to see if they pick up on it.

[Frank2]

That's very interesting, cycloneye - in the days before the Internet, it was very difficult for individuals to make much of an immediate difference in the world, but, since today's world is electronically connected, it doesn't take much to make a difference - for good or bad...

Market speculators rely very heavily on "what might happen" ('else they wouldn't be called speculators), so, even a reference to something "possibly" happening (as in the topic of this thread) means a lot to them - again, for good or bad...

Incidentially, the thunderstorm complex that has caused the excitement appears to be weakening over the past 2 hours....

[rockyman]

Hey, folks! I thought "political discussions" were only for the off-topic forum. I personally will not censor my words just because there is a chance that someone MIGHT read them and MIGHT take them the wrong way and MIGHT buy or sell oil futures...the title of this thread is 100% accurate...this is supposed to be a bulletin board for semi-scientifically-minded people...not for the general population and certainly not for futures traders who might pop in and get riled up by a headline in ALL CAPS...I read the thread title and thought "Hmmm...the ETA...ok...no big deal...but certainly worth reading"...It is a very slippery slope...if we censor our speech in the interest of keeping gas prices low, the next step would be to under-emphasize a developing hurricane because it might affect the market...imagine the feud that will take place when an infant Katrina, Ivan or Rita starts to take shape and head toward the Gomex...