Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[NDG]

Hopefully it will stay out of the Gulf on down the road. The way the upper air pattern has been this Summer Texas and Louisiana would be under the gun.

Kerry

Agree, TX and LA have to keep their guards up, everytime that the eastcoast trough has lifted up LA & TX have stayed in a weakness behind, with the trough expected to lift later on this week and into early next weak, about the time that if 99L survives should be close to the GOM, with the Atlantic ridge bridging to FL, which would mean that the western GOM could be in a weakness pattern. Not saying is definitely is going to happen but looking back all the way back to June, that's what has happened every time the eastcoast trough lifts up.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Your correct!

[Dean4Storms]

99L is looking more organized this evening and convection seems to be on the increase. We just might see this get named a TD come by days end tomorrow if this trend continues. Model support sure seems to have waned, must be the shear out ahead.

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007
1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N49W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 49N WAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 NM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

[Fego]

I was told that the T numbers went up from "too weak" to "1.0", at 0545 Zulu Time. Is that true?

[Regit]

31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Fego]

Thanks.. would you please share the link?

[Regit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[crazycajuncane]

I take a one and a half day break from Storm2k and we are talking about a TD and a possible Dean on the way?

Someone must have waken the Atlantic! 22 hours before August begins.... get ready folks!!

[Fego]

I'm confused...

31/0000 UTC 13.0N 120.1W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
30/2345 UTC 10.4N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Regit]

I'm confused...

31/0000 UTC 13.0N 120.1W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
30/2345 UTC 10.4N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

The top one is for the Pacific Ocean.

While the bottom one is the Atlantic, it's from 23:45 UTC on the 30th (the first number).

[wxmann_91]

I'm confused...

31/0000 UTC 13.0N 120.1W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
30/2345 UTC 10.4N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

First one is for 99E, an EPAC disturbance. Second one is for 99L, an Atlantic disturbance. Both estimates were made around 00 UTC, which was about 7 hours ago.

[Fego]

Thanks... but what I meant was that 99L was classified as "too weak", not 1.0
I tried to point out that with the red color. Ummm.. may be I didn't explained myself.

[weatherman0518]

FEGO- the most recent data shows this:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L

here is the link for this data:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[wxmann_91]

:roll: Thanks... but what I meant was that 99L was classified as "too weak", not 1.0
I tried to point out that with the red color. Ummm.. may be I didn't explained myself.

Yeah, that's why I wrote that the estimates were given 7 hours ago - when 99L had almost no convection associated with it.

The most recent estimates are up to 1.0 due to increased convection over the center.

[Fego]

Thank you all... well.. from 'too weak" to 1.0 speak for itself, right?

[weatherman0518]

YUP! lets see if it continues..... it is continuing to show nice signs of convection blowing up near the "center"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

[Normandy]

Continuing to look better and better....i'd say its slowly developing into a TD.

One glaring example of its improved organization is its LLC....you can clearly see low level clouds streaming into the system from the south at a nice clip.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yup looking better
maybe a tropical depression soon

[PTrackerLA]

Quick check at 99L and I think we're well on our way to TD #4 by tomorrow evening.