99L Recon Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll repost my thoughts from the locked discussion thread.

The aircraft could find some nice winds under the main convective activity, but I don't think we will find a TD. I'm anxious for a possible center fix - it would add some definite proof to the discussion. They could discern the mean area of rotation and if it is located at the upper, middle, or lower levels. I would guess middle levels.

I think it is plausible to find 30 kts at flight level - the convection's effects could produce some stiff winds.

By the way, those are outstanding links. Thanks, Chris!

[SouthFloridawx]

URNT10 KNHC 011703
97779 17044 40319 81408 08400 99005 20208 /9807
RMK AF300 WXWXA 07080116300 OB 04
LAST REPORT
Last report on the training mission.. should make this easier.

[SouthFloridawx]

095
URNT15 KNHC 011708
AF303 01DDA INVEST HDOB 11 20070801
170030 1256N 05947W 9769 00280 0089 +229 +224 065022 023 019 072 03
170100 1255N 05947W 9772 00280 0089 +229 +227 069021 023 018 063 00
170130 1254N 05946W 9769 00280 0087 +229 +227 065021 022 020 070 00
170200 1252N 05945W 9771 00273 0084 +229 +225 057021 022 017 063 00
170230 1251N 05944W 9772 00275 0083 +227 +227 059022 023 016 063 03
170300 1250N 05943W 9770 00275 0082 +228 +224 060021 022 014 042 00
170330 1249N 05942W 9770 00273 0080 +228 +223 058022 024 019 070 00
170400 1247N 05941W 9770 00274 0080 +232 +216 059023 024 020 070 00
170430 1246N 05940W 9770 00279 0080 +229 +222 055022 023 015 055 03
170500 1246N 05939W 9771 00272 0082 +229 +222 058021 022 021 072 00
170530 1245N 05938W 9767 00278 0083 +229 +217 059022 022 020 071 00
170600 1245N 05936W 9769 00276 0084 +226 +224 059021 022 015 049 03
170630 1246N 05935W 9771 00274 0085 +229 +224 064020 021 017 052 03
170700 1245N 05933W 9770 00278 0085 +228 +228 060018 019 019 073 00
170730 1245N 05932W 9774 00275 0085 +230 +226 060017 019 019 074 00
170800 1244N 05930W 9774 00276 0084 +230 +221 060018 019 020 071 00
170830 1244N 05929W 9768 00278 0085 +230 +226 058016 017 019 073 00
170900 1244N 05928W 9772 00275 0086 +230 +226 063017 018 019 071 00
170930 1243N 05926W 9767 00279 0084 +230 +224 065018 020 013 010 00
171000 1243N 05925W 9772 00284 0088 +230 +227 063017 017 019 071 00
$$

[chadtm80]

You can decode observations through my recon decoder here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
It includes a map.

Has HDOB and RECCO observations but does not have dropsonde or vortex messages. This site has those:
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

Very nice.

Bookmarked.

Just freaking awsome.. I have tried a few times to develope one of those for s2k and have failed everytime

[MiamiensisWx]

17:10:00Z 12.72N 59.42W 977.2 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 284 meters
(~ 932 feet) 1008.8 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 63° at 17 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 19.5 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 22.7°C
(~ 72.9°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 71 mm/hr
(~ 2.80 in/hr)

[SouthFloridawx]

URNT15 KNHC 011708
AF303 01DDA INVEST HDOB 11 20070801
170030 1256N 05947W 9769 00280 0089 +229 +224 065022 023 019 072 03
170100 1255N 05947W 9772 00280 0089 +229 +227 069021 023 018 063 00
170130 1254N 05946W 9769 00280 0087 +229 +227 065021 022 020 070 00
170200 1252N 05945W 9771 00273 0084 +229 +225 057021 022 017 063 00
170230 1251N 05944W 9772 00275 0083 +227 +227 059022 023 016 063 03
170300 1250N 05943W 9770 00275 0082 +228 +224 060021 022 014 042 00
170330 1249N 05942W 9770 00273 0080 +228 +223 058022 024 019 070 00
170400 1247N 05941W 9770 00274 0080 +232 +216 059023 024 020 070 00
170430 1246N 05940W 9770 00279 0080 +229 +222 055022 023 015 055 03
170500 1246N 05939W 9771 00272 0082 +229 +222 058021 022 021 072 00
170530 1245N 05938W 9767 00278 0083 +229 +217 059022 022 020 071 00
170600 1245N 05936W 9769 00276 0084 +226 +224 059021 022 015 049 03
170630 1246N 05935W 9771 00274 0085 +229 +224 064020 021 017 052 03
170700 1245N 05933W 9770 00278 0085 +228 +228 060018 019 019 073 00
170730 1245N 05932W 9774 00275 0085 +230 +226 060017 019 019 074 00
170800 1244N 05930W 9774 00276 0084 +230 +221 060018 019 020 071 00
170830 1244N 05929W 9768 00278 0085 +230 +226 058016 017 019 073 00
170900 1244N 05928W 9772 00275 0086 +230 +226 063017 018 019 071 00
170930 1243N 05926W 9767 00279 0084 +230 +224 065018 020 013 010 00
171000 1243N 05925W 9772 00284 0088 +230 +227 063017 017 019 071 00
$$

[vaffie]

extrapolated 1008.0 mb. 12.8N, 59.7W. peak flight level winds 24 knots.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Just freaking awsome.. I have tried a few times to develope one of those for s2k and have failed everytime

If you want the code I can give it to you, but it can be finicky. There is about half a dozen Perl scripts and several dozen text files that help in the calculations to the nearest city.

[RL3AO]

Don't think we are getting a depression this time.

[sevenleft]

extrapolated 1008.0 mb. 12.8N, 59.7W. peak flight level winds 24 knots.

And all with ENE winds.

[SouthFloridawx]

AF303 01DDA INVEST HDOB 12 20070801
171030 1242N 05923W 9770 00282 0089 +230 +228 065017 019 019 071 03
171100 1242N 05922W 9773 00279 0089 +230 +226 065019 020 019 063 03
171130 1243N 05921W 9764 00289 0091 +222 +218 067019 020 017 010 00
171200 1243N 05919W 9772 00262 0071 +230 +226 069018 019 021 010 00
171230 1243N 05918W 9771 00268 0075 +230 +224 072020 020 018 049 00
171300 1243N 05916W 9771 00264 0074 +229 +226 070020 021 009 009 00
171330 1243N 05915W 9772 00265 0074 +228 +228 068019 019 999 999 03
171400 1242N 05914W 9772 00250 0062 +225 +225 066016 018 009 029 00
171430 1241N 05913W 9776 00248 0058 +228 +227 066018 018 010 029 00
171500 1240N 05912W 9766 00259 0059 +228 +225 065019 020 005 029 00
171530 1239N 05911W 9766 00258 0060 +225 +225 066016 018 001 010 03
171600 1238N 05909W 9772 00253 0061 +225 +225 067017 017 015 056 00
171630 1237N 05908W 9771 00256 0063 +225 +225 071017 018 007 010 00
171700 1236N 05907W 9769 00262 0065 +226 +224 070016 017 013 042 00
171730 1235N 05906W 9771 00259 0064 +229 +216 071018 019 011 029 00
171800 1233N 05905W 9764 00269 0067 +229 +219 070016 018 008 010 00
171830 1232N 05904W 9774 00258 0067 +226 +226 065014 014 007 010 00
171900 1231N 05903W 9770 00256 0062 +225 +225 054015 015 001 009 03
171930 1230N 05902W 9774 00252 0060 +226 +226 054013 015 003 009 00
172000 1229N 05901W 9767 00258 0059 +225 +225 050010 010 000 010 00

[MiamiensisWx]

1008 mbar is a surprisingly low pressure. It's peripheral, too. It could support an existing LLC. If we find attendant west winds, that will put the nail in the coffin - it will confirm my thoughts. I want to see the velocities of these flight-level winds as they enter the heaviest convection - that vicinity is closest to my estimate for a possible low-level circulation. Let's watch these obs...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did I just see 1006mb?

[RL3AO]

1005.9 mb?

[Brent]

1005.9 mb?

[vaffie]

extrapolated 1008.0 mb. 12.8N, 59.7W. peak flight level winds 24 knots.

And all with ENE winds.

yes, because they're still north of the center. Satellite estimates (for instance the Dvorak number) at 11.6N, so it's still about 90 miles too far north.

Wow, 1005.9 mb now.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a vigorous wave at this point, but no signs of a circulation yet.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a vigorous wave at this point, but no signs of a circulation yet.

Yep. But an impressive pressure.

[x-y-no]

1005.9 mb?

Yep.

Still nothing but ENE and NE winds, though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, call me goofy, but using the NASA satellite customizer for this loop, 99L reminds me of Gammera, friend of children everywhere.