Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Needs to find where it wants to consolidate first. Hard to find a center.

Non updating image. 18Z early cycle, 12Z late cycle, models:


Two northerly ones are climatology.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 42059



This bouy located South of Puerto Rico (15.0n-67.5w) will be interesting to look at the data as the system approaches that location.

[weatherguru18]

Hello everybody. I'm new on here. An interesting thought would be if this disturbance in the gulf gets cranked up, I would imagine that it would have some kind of pull on 99L and may nudge it a bit furthur north. I don't think the U.S. is completely out of the woods as far as this system goes. If you look back over climatology, especially the systems Ivan, Emily, Dennis, ect..., all formed far south and hooked vigerously toward the Flordia/ Alabama coasts.

[HURAKAN]

WELCOME!!!

[canegrl04]

Welcome,Weatheguru18 You seem to already have some knowledge of the tropics.Cool

[weatherguru18]

Thanks for the welcome. A bit about me...I'm 21 yrs. old and am a meteorology major at Texas A&M University. I reside in Houston, TX. Anything else, just ask.

[astrosbaseball22]

hello i am new to. invest 99 should begin to form an eye. when is the earilest a TD can form?

[HURAKAN]

Hello everybody. I'm new on here. An interesting thought would be if this disturbance in the gulf gets cranked up, I would imagine that it would have some kind of pull on 99L and may nudge it a bit furthur north. I don't think the U.S. is completely out of the woods as far as this system goes. If you look back over climatology, especially the systems Ivan, Emily, Dennis, ect..., all formed far south and hooked vigerously toward the Flordia/ Alabama coasts.

In the case of Dennis, Ivan, Charley, Lili, and many others, there was a trough of low pressure moving SEward that caused these systems to turn north and then northeastward. In the case of 99L we don't expect a trough to come and pick up the system, but the disturbance in the GOM could create a weakness in the high and enable 99L to increase in latitude. That has to be seen and depends on how strong 99L gets and the Gulf disturbance gets.

[RL3AO]

:D hello i am new to. invest 99 should begin to form an eye. when is the earilest a TD can form?

Tropical systems don't form eyes until they have winds of at least 65 mph. And a TD can form any time of year but are most common in the Atlantic between June and November.

[Aquawind]

The sooner and stronger the systems develops the more north the threat. It has some time if it strengthens to change those trusty models..

[HURAKAN]

:D hello i am new to. invest 99 should begin to form an eye. when is the earilest a TD can form?

Welcome. Fortunately 99L doesn't have an eye. A TD forms when there is a well-defined center of low pressure at the surface and organized convection close or over the center. Also, winds must be at least 25 to 30 mph. Sometimes these disturbances can look really good but if they don't have a center of low pressure at the surface, then they can't be upgraded.

[astrosbaseball22]

do you think it will be a TD?

[RL3AO]

do you think it will be a TD?

It is very possible.

[DESTRUCTION5]

do you think it will be a TD?

All I Know is Clemens plays for NY now man...LOL

[astrosbaseball22]

do you think it will be a TD?

It is very possible.

when is the earliest then NHC can upgrade it?

[astrosbaseball22]

do you think it will be a TD?

All I Know is Clemens plays for NY now man...LOL

22 is my number

[weatherguru18]

Lots of dry air ahead although it is moistening up a bit.

[RL3AO]

do you think it will be a TD?

It is very possible.

when is the earliest then NHC can upgrade it?

In reality anytime they want to. But advisories are issued at 11pm, 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm ET. If it can get some more thunderstorm activity, it might become TD 4 at 5am tomorrow at the earliest.

[weatherguru18]

do you think it will be a TD?

It is very possible.

when is the earliest then NHC can upgrade it?

It can be upgraded at anytime. However, there really is no urgency at this time. IF* they do upgrade this system, it won't be until the 11pm update.

[HURAKAN]

do you think it will be a TD?

Probably tomorrow if the diurnal maximum does a good job!!!