Something to think About Looking at 1933, 1934, and 1935

[Regit]

There's no connection between 1933-35 and 2005-07

Well, if you ignore the fact that they're identical - yeah, I guess...

Well I'm afraid too many people are ignoring the possible missed storms. Let's just say there were 3 missed storms in '34. That makes it a very active year and the theory falls apart.

[Downdraft]

I got to have some fun with this. Any day now I expect the global warming folks to make the statement that in the 30's hurricanes didn't form as far out in the eastern Atlantic as they do now. An obvious example to the alarmist crowd that hurricanes are in fact an example of global warming. Just look at the charts above it's clear all the hurricanes formed closer in the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. Now we all know if you ask the people in the Cape Verde's how long have hurricanes been around they will probably say, "how old are these islands?" Please bear in mind I'm doing this all in tongue in cheek. Let's wipe away all the science for a moment and just consider this. Oceans get warm winds change Nature (all encompassing term to reflect an entity reflecting the reader's point of view) decides heat must go so you either upwell it or you transfer it from the water to the air and dump it further north. Oh my, sounds like the reason Nature (again all encompassing term to reflect science or religious entity) says, "let's make a hurricane." Any time waters get to warm clouds are gonna spiral somewhere. This post makes absolutely no sense but I sure had fun typing it I worked all night but true geek that I am had to check this board before I could go to bed.

[Deputy Van Halen]

>>I was going to add the point flwxwatcher made - that a weak African wave situation, as we see this year, corresponds with a "homebrew" storm like the labor day hurricane just off Florida. It would be denial to not see the relationship.


I wonder what would happen if a storm identical to the 1935 Labor day hurricane happened today.

Since that storm had only moderate effects on mainland south Florida, Key West, and the Gulf Coast, the big question is whether the upper Keys would be properly evacuated. They would have much better information than the 1935 residents did, but if the storm's intensification were as rapid as the available data suggests, many might choose to ride out the storm until it's almost too late.

Are there any "conchs" on this board who could shed some light? Is it common practice there to be ready to evacuate at the drop of a hat, even if the approaching storm only looks to be a Cat1 or strong TS?

[CrazyC83]

1934 and 1935 recorded less storms than in 1933. However, I think there were more storms that went undetected because we had no satellites. Notice in the Eastern Atlantic, there are no storms tracked in 1933, 1934, and 1935, which indicates they likely went undetected. They probably were treated as extratropical systems. I wold like to hear the Pro Mets take on this.

No pro, but I fully believe that 1933 could have matched or even surpassed 2005. Look at Vince. If there was a Vince in 33, it wouldn't have been classified. Tammy probably wouldn't have been either. Or Bret. They were all TC's by today's standards, but back in 1933, it would have been much harder to find and classify storms like those. But that's off-topic.

You are probably correct. There likely were deep-Atlantic tropical or subtropical storms not classified. Even a Delta, Epsilon or Zeta way out there may have gone unnoticed...

[Sanibel]

I love the tendency for people to grab some theory like the "storms were probably missed" theory and stick with it - despite the obvious facts. Fact is, 1933 was a record year, like 2005, that was then followed by a weak year, like 2006. Why this is a fascinating topic and good thread is that 2007 has started exactly like 1935 - the year of the worst storm to ever hit the US. The 'theory stickers' will then say "well then, you are claiming a 200 mph hurricane will hit the Keys? Nonsense." But that ignores the fact that the comparison is uncanny so far. And, no, no credible observer would say that locks-in a Keys monster this year. It does, however, make you wonder, since Africa is not producing any moist waves and the west basin is showing signs of deep convection in its waves. That, to me, is an indicator of a potential homebrew set-up that just so happens to correspond to 1935 - just as the topic suggests. It would be foolish to ignore it - especially on the basis of the "missed storm theory" - which, to me, is just a means of ignoring the real comparisons. Shipping was THE means of overseas transportation back then. Ships covered the Atlantic. No storms were missed because ship crews were trained to observe weather as a professional practice of mutual aid in navigation. So the "missed storm" theory sounds good from computer keyboards in 2007, but is ignorant of the situation in 1934.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very interesting theories here.
A disturbing thought is that Key west
had it's all time record high low
of 87 several times and has
hit 94 last month the hottest
since 1991.
With that hot water around key west
I would not be surprised to see
a storm explode near that area...
Not saying that there will be a
Labor Day Storm Repeat...but
with the heat records at the keys
and the homebrew development
theories the potential exists.

[KWT]

Sanibel, all well and good about shipping but relaly how many ships do you think would have travelled across the reigon between 5-20N and 20-50W...surely most would have travelled between the America region and Europe taking a more northerly route, no doubt catching those recurvers but they could have easily have missed a short lived TS that only lasted a very short time like Lee from 05, that would have almost certainly have been missed or just thought of as extra tropical. Andrea would have been extra tropial back in those days I'm pretty confident, it was only upgraded because of recon finding a warm core.

Still its interesting to see the comprasions, even tohugh we are 3 storms ahead right now which is half the entire season total of 35, at least Andrea may have not been counted in a season such as 35 and it doesn't look like august is going to be too busy, at least for the next 10 days or so. Also you relaly can't ignore the fact that the eastern Atlantic is quite hostile right now while the so called homebrew regions have huge heat contents and improving condtions.

[Sanibel]

The archive shows that 1934 had weak short-trackers. Even if there were some missed storms, this short-track tendency reinforces the analogy because short-trackers did not originate from Africa. So, it would be unlikely any long-trackers were missed because their length would almost assure their detection. So, even if a few short-trackers were missed that would still assist the analogy since it would confirm Africa wasn't producing any long-trackers (like this year so far).

We all know Africa could start pumping out strong long-trackers any day now and overturn the analogy, but, so far, it is holding. I feel the "missed storm" people fail to consider all the comparisons like the fact 1934 was short-tracker/weak storm year.

[Recurve]

I wonder what would happen if a storm identical to the 1935 Labor day hurricane happened today.

Since that storm had only moderate effects on mainland south Florida, Key West, and the Gulf Coast, the big question is whether the upper Keys would be properly evacuated. They would have much better information than the 1935 residents did, but if the storm's intensification were as rapid as the available data suggests, many might choose to ride out the storm until it's almost too late.

Are there any "conchs" on this board who could shed some light? Is it common practice there to be ready to evacuate at the drop of a hat, even if the approaching storm only looks to be a Cat1 or strong TS?

IMO most people would plan to get out for a Cat 3+. Keys shelters open only for Cat 1-2 -- but I wonder what the policy is if the shelters open and the storm rapidly intensifies.

I don't think many residents are students of history though, and realize how bad the surge was in 1935. I re-read the monthly weather review report last night. The surge (with waves) must have reached 30' (and that to the south of the center) because the railway was washed off the Long Key viaduct, where the railbed was 30' above mean water level.

Personally, I had the car loaded and ready to go when Rita was in the straits, even though only a minimal hurricane passing the keys. All signs said it was going to bomb and I considered the chance it would start curving NW.

Residents of Key Largo have to go 25 miles or so to get to Florida City out of the surge zone. Lower Matecumbe / Long Key residents would have to go about 45 miles to do it.

Final '35 note: Conchs watched their barometers in 35 and knew the storm was coming, even though the weather service reports somewhat misleadingly placed it vaguely close to the N coast of Cuba. But even the locals weren't prepared for the ferocity. The relief workers were left to die by supervisors who had no clue what a hurricane would do or how far in advance they should have made the decision. They didn't order the evac train to head towards the Keys until Monday afternoon. The tropical storm conditions hit only a few hours later, and the eyewall arrived around 8 p.m.

[gatorcane]

Some great discussion on this topic. As some of us said, it's not about the tracks as much as it is the similarities in number of storms, when, and where they formed if you look at 1933, 1934, 1935.

I do wonder if there were undetected storms that formed out in the Atlantic back in the 1930s...anybody have any more information on this?

I cannot believe how quickly the 1935 Keys hurricane intensified. I am hoping a situation like that does not happen for the FL Keys. If you think about it, the upper FL Keys (e.g. Islamorada, Tavernier, Key Largo) have not seen CAT 2+ sustained winds in a *long* time. It's only a matter of time.

One tidbit of information I want to add to this topic is that the NW Caribbean has warmer waters than even 2005. I'm not sure if some of you realize that. It certainly has the potential to support a CAT 5 hurricane if environmental conditions are also ideal.

I really doubt this year will be as quiet as 2006 - the stage is set for things to get going at the end of this month. Here are some high-level bullet points of why I think so

-extremely warm SSTs in the GOM, West Atlantic, and Caribbean. These areas have not seen much cloudiness so far this summer
-the possibility of a developing La Nina starting in Sept
-some eerie similarities between 1933-1935...
-its unlikely to have two back-to-back years with little activity
-the long wave pattern has featured a strong EC trough for most of the summer. It's undoubtedly going to change for late Aug-Oct as we don't typically see the long waves lasting for months on end.

[KWT]

Actually to me this season so far hasn't been too different to the 06 season and we have had about the same number of systems as well. SAL I seems to remember prevented much from getting going till late August however we did get some higher actvity between late August-mid September with 4 hurricanes.

The main difference between this year though and last year was we had a rapidly developing El nino that IMO prevented development from mid-Setepmber onwards, such we did have Issac late September but apart from that nothing much. This is where 07 will be different to 06 because we have a cool neutral and maybe a very weak La nina trying to form which will mean the shear shouldn't cut off the last 45 days or so off activity like last season but right now the first half is a little like 06.

[Ptarmigan]

Some great discussion on this topic. As some of us said, it's not about the tracks as much as it is the similarities in number of storms, when, and where they formed if you look at 1933, 1934, 1935.

I do wonder if there were undetected storms that formed out in the Atlantic back in the 1930s...anybody have any more information on this?

I cannot believe how quickly the 1935 Keys hurricane intensified. I am hoping a situation like that does not happen for the FL Keys. If you think about it, the upper FL Keys (e.g. Islamorada, Tavernier, Key Largo) have not seen CAT 2+ sustained winds in a *long* time. It's only a matter of time.

One tidbit of information I want to add to this topic is that the NW Caribbean has warmer waters than even 2005. I'm not sure if some of you realize that. It certainly has the potential to support a CAT 5 hurricane if environmental conditions are also ideal.

I really doubt this year will be as quiet as 2006 - the stage is set for things to get going at the end of this month. Here are some high-level bullet points of why I think so

-extremely warm SSTs in the GOM, West Atlantic, and Caribbean. These areas have not seen much cloudiness so far this summer
-the possibility of a developing La Nina starting in Sept
-some eerie similarities between 1933-1935...
-its unlikely to have two back-to-back years with little activity
-the long wave pattern has featured a strong EC trough for most of the summer. It's undoubtedly going to change for late Aug-Oct as we don't typically see the long waves lasting for months on end.

I notice in 2005, there was a monsoonal trough in the Caribbeans, which is rather unusual to see. I know monsoons play a large role in tropical cyclone formation. Hurricane Wilma formed from a monsoonal low. Many tropical cyclones come from monsoonal troughs. East Pacific is active in part because of the North American Monsoon. The 1930s was in an "Active Cycle" from 1926 to 1969. Even in active cycles, you can have a quiet season.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Shipping was THE means of overseas transportation back then. Ships covered the Atlantic. No storms were missed because ship crews were trained to observe weather as a professional practice of mutual aid in navigation. So the "missed storm" theory sounds good from computer keyboards in 2007, but is ignorant of the situation in 1934.

I have a hard time believing that NO storms were missed. Sure, ships canvassed the ocean to a greater extent than most people realize. But some storms only flare up to TS strength for a few hours, and over an area with just a few miles radius. The Atlantic Ocean is a really big place. It would have required a significant portion of the populations of Europe, Africa, and North America to be at sea at any given time to ensure that all storms were catalogued properly at the right intensity.

Also, it seems (correct me if I'm wrong) that most of the ships would have been traveling between Europe and the United States, well north of where most of the storms are.

[Sanibel]

But even a missed short-lived TS still confirms the pattern of a weak African ITCZ year. ie no long-trackers.

You have to include ALL the data and comparisons.

[MGC]

Gotta agree with you there Sanibel. With the dust situation in the eastern and central Atlantic, I'm looking for something to pop up in the W Carb, GOM or off the EC. Ships going to north Europe travel the Gulf Stream route, those going to the Straights of Gibralter would take a slightly more southern route. I'm convinced that many many tropical cyclones were missed prior to the satellite era.....MGC

[Patrick99]

I think it's a fair analogy. Still think this will be another short-tracker year, with landfall(s). The waters of the East Atlantic are cool, but the waters of the Gulf and SW Atlantic are primed and ready to go.

I would love to see a repeat of that Cat. 1 in 1935 that hit South Florida from way out, from the northeast in November. What a freak that was.....probably something that will never be repeated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The seasons when we get home-brew storms are usually the worst ones. Not only do they have a greater chance at landfall, but warning time can also be reduced. Even 2005, with all it's storms, is most remembered for the ones that formed closest to shore...

Katrina = http://www.enterprisemission.com/weblog/uploaded_images/Katrina_Track-754214.jpg

Rita = http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/images/Hurricane_Rita_Path_small.gif

Dennis = http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/dennis2005trk.gif (not really "home-grown", but still notable that it formed west of the Windwards).

Ophelia = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/OPHELIA/track.gif

Cindy = http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/CINDY/track.gif

If we see home-grown storms become the norm again this year, then we might be in trouble. The warm water and improving conditions close to the U.S. could be the fuel needed to make this a season to remember (even if the overall numbers are lower than expected).

[Sanibel]

So does long-tracking Dean break the comparison between 1933-35 and 2005-07?

The CV belt is getting going. If we get another one it will break the analogy.

[Sanibel]

Well the analogy holds if we are thinking in terms of a historic cyclone forming, although it was a Cape Verde long-tracker and not a Bahamas home brew.

[Steve]

While it was interesting to start with the two most active years (1933 and 2005), I don't think there is any merit to the comparisons. Ultimately, the only thing that matters is what happens with the storms. 1933 only bears very slight resemblance to 2005 with the BOC systems.

The keys, specifically for the US Gulf Coast where there is no comparison whatsoever (Tracks or especially Intensity):

1933 - 2 tropical storms hit the Big Bend area; 1 hit south of Galveston Bay, 1 IH hit and 1 borderline Cat 1 hit on the Brownsville, TX area.

2005 - 2 IH hits on the northern Gulf Coast (Dennis, Katrina), can't remember if Rita was a 2 or 3, 1 Cat 1 hit on Louisiana (Cindy), Cat 3 hit in SW Florida (Wilma), 1 Tropical Storm hit just west of Dennis.

IMHO, the tracks don't much correlate to anything unless someone is looking for them to. Obviously the weather patterns were not similar.

Then we go onto 1934 vs. 2006: These two seasons had very little in common that wouldn't be a stretch of an argument (that probably wouldn't really hold up). In fact, the seasons aren't even on any kind of parallel. 1934 was a Gulf year with mostly tropical storms around (couple of hurricane hits - St. Mary Parish, LA; Corpus Christi) that featured alot of activity in and around the Bahamas. 2006 was completely different in that almost all of the activity was out in the Atlantic. Specifically, there was literally zero activity in and around the Bahamas except for the remants of Chris.

Whether we can draw a parallel between 1935 and 2007 remains to be seen. As of right now, I would suspect not even remotely close seasons. 2007 has featured 2 landfalls in the US Gulf of Tropical Storms, and whatever happens with Dean as it crosses the BOC. 1935 was a very inactive year that featured activity west of 60 but very little Gulf activity (Cat 1 hit in Big Bend from remnants of Labor Day Keys Hurricane, TD hit lower BoC).

Again, we can come up with some comparisons, but my money says that at the end of 2007, the maps between 2007 and 1935 will have very little in common - in keeping with the themes of 1933 vs. 2005 and 1934 vs. 2006.

JMO. I realize the number of storms has, as someone paralleled, but that really doesn't mean much of anything IMHO.

Steve