Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

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El Nino
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#21 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:34 pm

I thought saturday night, I'm not too far off. So, a TD in 2 days, just for my monday morning prediction :P
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#22 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:34 pm

I haven't kept up with the million posts with the CV wave (my time has been taken up with the Pacific systems) but now that it is an invest I am interested. Does it have a mid-level low? Whats shear like? SAL? SSTs?
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#23 Postby Fego » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:35 pm

Now that we have the numerical numbers, can somebody explain the positive and negative of each one of those models, in terms of the Invest 90L?
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Re:

#24 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:35 pm

rockyman wrote:SHIPS is showing only very conservative strengthening...any ideas why?

I don't think that's conservative for where it's at. This is almost mid-August, and 90L is in the eastern Atlantic. I don't think we will get RI over there.
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Re:

#25 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:37 pm

rockyman wrote:SHIPS is showing only very conservative strengthening...any ideas why?


Shear and marginal SSTs in the eastern Atlantic.

Shear should decrease gradually, and of course the further west it gets, the warmer the water.
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:38 pm

Image

The first 90L graphic
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Re:

#27 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:38 pm

rockyman wrote:SHIPS is showing only very conservative strengthening...any ideas why?
I don't know..but conservative strengthening is NOT what we want. The slower it is to develop, the higher the chances of this going more westward (toward the islands).
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#28 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:39 pm

I think development will be gradual at first. However when it gets close to the islands I could easily see some serious strengthening.
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#29 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:39 pm

That's for the 90L that spawned Andrea.
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#30 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:39 pm

I figured it would become a TD sometime this weekend. I had no idea as far as becoming an invest. :wink:

Is this official? I can't get the Navy site, and the backup seems to be having problems too.
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Re: Re:

#31 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:39 pm

x-y-no wrote:
rockyman wrote:SHIPS is showing only very conservative strengthening...any ideas why?


Shear and marginal SSTs in the eastern Atlantic.

Shear should decrease gradually, and of course the further west it gets, the warmer the water.



yep.. typical for the eastern atlantic...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#32 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:40 pm

Look at the winds.

Image
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:40 pm

Image
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#34 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:41 pm

The only thing I can say folks is that it will change many times ....the chances of it hitting where it says it will be hitting 10 days from now are very low.........I just don't like the position of the high. I am curious, does anyone remember if during the formation of Andrew, was the high also predicted to be in about the same place this far out?
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#35 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:41 pm

Those graphics are for Andrea!!
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#36 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:42 pm

Oh heh, nvm sry. My problem, had to refresh. Ignore me.
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#37 Postby Praxus » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:42 pm

"If I had the money,I would be investing heavily in oil futures..They will undoubtably go up next week,and with it gasoline prices.."

One of my co-workers hangs onto my info during hurricane season so he can buy oil stocks if a cane is on its way to the gulf.

I may take a serious look at that myself; considering we have two potential gulf threats coming up shortly, and the season is just swinging into gear.
Last edited by Praxus on Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#38 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:44 pm

Hmmm, I was thinking about Andrew too ... Eeekkk
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#39 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:46 pm

NRL down for me
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Re: INVEST 90L:East Atlantic,=First Model Plots Posted

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:49 pm

Sanibel wrote:NRL down for me


Both sites of NRL are down.But the models starting running tracks for 90L.They are posted in page 1.
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