Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[EyELeSs1]

[Opal storm]

Despite it's fast movement it has been extremely persistent, I don't think it's faded out since it emerged off Africa.

[jaxfladude]

Man I have a feeling this will be a major hurricane if it can hold together...

[MiamiensisWx]

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I think we are slowly getting a better "feel" for the environment and synoptic setup ahead of 90L. Personally, I think the latest data (satellite and upper-air environment) and recent model guidance indicates an emerging sense of confidence about one fact. The system is definitely moving faster than originally progged, and this could throw a wrench in other people's original thoughts. The more rapid movement could bring the system relatively close to the islands within four or five days. Additionally, the forward motion could present a crux for the upper-air environment (whether it misses the East Coast trough) and the intensity of 90L down the road.

A quicker motion could create a less conducive environment for structural organization over the LLC, especially because of the last bouts of lingering easterly shear. It should move into an increasingly favorable environment, but the rapid low to mid-level flow presents uncertainties in the forecasts. I think the big question asks if the trough will pull out quicker when the system nears the islands; if the system develops more rapidly when it approaches the islands, it could feel the weakness and take a northward path. A weaker "slow fuse" system likely will take a more southern course. The GFS and Euro heights support the plausibility of these multiple scenarios. I think these scenarios will be the key that could influence 90L's future path and intensity.

What do you think?

[sevenleft]

90L sure is growing. Starting to get more of an annular look. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

Annular?

[wzrgirl1]

an excellent post...very thorough...thanks for your input

[DESTRUCTION5]

90L sure is growing. Starting to get more of an annular look. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

Annular?

WAs going to comment but figured id leave it alone..

[wzrgirl1]

90L sure is growing. Starting to get more of an annular look. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

Annular?

donut-shaped

[sevenleft]

90L sure is growing. Starting to get more of an annular look. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

Annular?

WAs going to comment but figured id leave it alone..

I try but sometimes I just can't, heh.

[Sanibel]

It should be noted that the good symmetry the system is currently showing will probably strengthen it possibly allowing a higher steering level profile. That would take the system slightly more north in track. If the system spins with good symmetry it will bloom higher tops and catch higher steering winds. Unless the ridge is ironclad and keeps 90L in a low-track.

[windycity]

Annular look meaning very round, compact. Some of the hurricanes in 05 were annular during sometime in their cycle. Annular canes stay together longer and our less affected by adverse conditions. Wilma is a good example.

[cheezyWXguy]

Annular look meaning very round, compact. Some of the hurricanes in 05 were annular during sometime in their cycle. Annular canes stay together longer and our less affected by adverse conditions. Wilma is a good example.

Wima was not annular. It frequently went through eye replacent cycles and usually had a lot of rainbands. The only thing that wouldve made it close to being annular was its large eye.

[wxmann_91]

An annular hurricane is one with no outer rainbands - simply just an eye and the eyewall, and that's it. Daniel (EPAC) 2006, Isabel (2003), and Epsilon (2005) were annular.

This is NOT annular. It's not even a hurricane yet. Wilma/Katrina/Rita were not annular.

[fci]

I thought that "annular" was pretty much restricted to Hurricanes and NOT something like an Invest, TD or even a TS.

[O Town]

I think what they meant was 99L appears to have a circular appearance. But yeah annular refers only to hurricanes. And there have only been a handful.
Thanks for setting the record straight wxmann_91 .

[weatherguru18]

What do you look for to see if a storm has become vertically stacked?

[RL3AO]

Good morning. I see we have jumped to Code Orange.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think what they meant was 99L appears to have a circular appearance. But yeah annular refers only to hurricanes. And there have only been a handful.
Thanks for setting the record straight wxmann_91 .

You win... thats the correct answer. I think poster of the image, used the word annular as a descriptor and not a technical explanation.

Look at the outflow in the NW quad... looking very organized under there. I bet we have a TC in the next couple of days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

We have at least a depression now SFWX

[Sanibel]

Again - The better the structure, the better the potential strength = the higher the cloud tops. This will then (possibly) be steered at a higher level - or slightly more north ala Euro...