Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

[O Town]

Convection still firing on the half that is over water, lets see how she looks tomorrow.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks impressive, strong convection, some circulation.

[Zardoz]

Looks impressive, strong convection, some circulation.

Yep:

[crm6360]

Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?

Sadly, I don't think this poster was trying to be sarcastic.

[njweather]

Is there any data on how fast this system is moving?

When do you all think more models will pick it up (aside from the gfs)?

[HURAKAN]

Poof?!?!

[skysummit]

Nah....give it a day or two. It's still under strong easterly shear today.

[Zardoz]

Tons of convection:

[SouthFloridawx]

No Poof, lol ?

Almost is full view on this section of Eumetsat.

[boca]

Nathan, thats one hell of a picture. The area by 25W has the best shot in my opinion.

[skysummit]

No wave is mentioned on surface analysis, but look at the wind barbs...

[Scorpion]

Wow looks impressive. Nice banding.

[wxfollower]

No Poof, lol ?

Almost is full view on this section of Eumetsat.

Impressive map....I like...

[seaswing]

That is an awesome map! I am impressed!

[seaswing]

Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?

Sadly, I don't think this poster was trying to be sarcastic.

No, I wasn't.... I do believe in my heart that we will be seeing 'the big one' sooner than we all hope for.... Dean was an example but can you imagine what it would have been like if Dean had come ashore in Florida? last year was unusual, this year may be normal but the magnitude, intensity and size of these storms almost remind me of the 'super typhoons' that Japan and Taiwan see. Florida would be just devastated if one of those came ashore here. Inland wouldn't be the place to evacuate; Minnesota might be though. In the '04 storms, inland was just as affected as the coast in terms of damage and power outages, can you imagine a cat 5 hitting the coast and then traveling inland as a cat 2? we are just not prepared to deal with those winds.

Seas

[skysummit]

Heck...I'd much rather ride out a Cat 5 in Florida than I would ride out a Cat 3 in South Louisiana.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

No, I wasn't.... I do believe in my heart that we will be seeing 'the big one' sooner than we all hope for.... Dean was an example but can you imagine what it would have been like if Dean had come ashore in Florida? last year was unusual, this year may be normal but the magnitude, intensity and size of these storms almost remind me of the 'super typhoons' that Japan and Taiwan see. Florida would be just devastated if one of those came ashore here. Inland wouldn't be the place to evacuate; Minnesota might be though. In the '04 storms, inland was just as affected as the coast in terms of damage and power outages, can you imagine a cat 5 hitting the coast and then traveling inland as a cat 2? we are just not prepared to deal with those winds.

Seas

Seas - very true, just ask Max:

"We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely populated area to have a major disaster. I know people don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

-- Max Mayfield, Jan 2007

Within 50 miles of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, "There are an estimated 48 million people now living in harm's way," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center."About 85 percent of this population has never felt the direct effect of a major hurricane," he added. Mayfield said the below-normal hurricane activity of the 1970s and 80s encouraged an explosive building boom along both coasts."The lack of significant storm activity led residents to assume their locations were safe or if their community was near a land-falling storm, the encounter was indicative of a direct hit."

-- NOAA, May 2001

[seaswing]

Heck...I'd much rather ride out a Cat 5 in Florida than I would ride out a Cat 3 in South Louisiana.

I hear ya! no, we don't have the levees that just aren't tall and strong enough and we aren't below sea level everywhere~ but Fla. isn't very wide in the widest part. A cat 5 would cover the whole state more than likely and there would be nowhere to evacuate except out of state... especially if it crossed east to west or west to east. A cat 6? well, no one would know what to expect... but I think it's coming..... not too far in our distant future....IMO... and again, IMO, global warming or the beginning of an active 20 years.... it will make Katrina look like a cat 1.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Well to get back on topic, according to NHC 2:05 discussion, the convection is associated with the ITCZ and is not listed as a tropical wave.

[seaswing]

Windsurfer~

I respect Max Mayfield very much. He has a genuine concern for the population. He is right on the money about the complacency of many people. In a way, the lack of storms in '06 only helped the fuel the complacency. This 'thing' coming off Africa, whether it makes it across the Atlantic or not is something to be respected and definitely something to watch.

Seas

Yes, back on topic!